Damage In Tolland Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 31 minutes ago, vortex95 said: There are these wx sayings, "similar patterns breed similar storms" and "when it's good, it can be REAL good!" First, I will get this out of the way, CoastalWx is once again STEAMED this did not happen in this past winter! This storm is almost a carbon copy of the last storm, except everything is ~100 mi NW. The 500 trough evolution is ideal. The trough over the Mid-Atlantic is at first neutrally titled, and does a full 90 deg swing negative as it moves across New England. That's how you do it for a classic! The last storm did this as well. 982 mb for a central pressure over New England is very impressive for late May. I can not recall a low this deep here this late, esp. over land. Embedded tstms look to be widespread, even the cool sector of the storm. Few hundred CAPE is common across the region on the models as the storm winds up. That does not happen often w/ a Nor'easter, but given it is late May, by default you will have some CAPE around. Big R+ potential in western sections w/ the deformation. Can it look any more classic on the HRRR forecast radar valid 18z Sat? Snow once again likely in the mtns (above 4000 ft this time) and probably several inches on Mt Washington as a rather cold air mass for this time of year flushes in behind the storm. Too bad not much surface based instability for tors . This would be ideal for that if we had some . Still wouldn’t be shocking to gin up a few spinners in warm sector 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 90’s! https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1928533956883878229?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 Synoptically impressive but barely enough QPF to water the grass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Synoptically impressive but barely enough QPF to water the grass. Instead of watering your grass, it floats away some covered bridges? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 Not good for the hippy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 Shocking it keeps moving west . Shocking I say 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 18 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Synoptically impressive but barely enough QPF to water the grass. Meanwhile the 12k and hrrr are 1.5"+ for us. Probably lean something toward the middle with an inch or so, closer to the globals 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Shocking it keeps moving west . Shocking I say Has it though when you toggle the actual storm features on model sites? Looks pretty steady past couple days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Has it though when you toggle the actual storm features on model sites? Looks pretty steady past couple days. It started out as a full fledged nor Easter . Now it’s going up over far western New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 1 hour ago, vortex95 said: There are these wx sayings, "similar patterns breed similar storms" and "when it's good, it can be REAL good!" First, I will get this out of the way, CoastalWx is once again STEAMED this did not happen in this past winter! This storm is almost a carbon copy of the last storm, except everything is ~100 mi NW. The 500 trough evolution is ideal. The trough over the Mid-Atlantic is at first neutrally titled, and does a full 90 deg swing negative as it moves across New England. That's how you do it for a classic! The last storm did this as well. 982 mb for a central pressure over New England is very impressive for late May. I can not recall a low this deep here this late, esp. over land. Embedded tstms look to be widespread, even the cool sector of the storm. Few hundred CAPE is common across the region on the models as the storm winds up. That does not happen often w/ a Nor'easter, but given it is late May, by default you will have some CAPE around. Big R+ potential in western sections w/ the deformation. Can it look any more classic on the HRRR forecast radar valid 18z Sat? Snow once again likely in the mtns (above 4000 ft this time) and probably several inches on Mt Washington as a rather cold air mass for this time of year flushes in behind the storm. At present it's an odd a system. Both sat and rad trends are decoupled from the surface frontal tapestry ...which features a 1002 mb low, but in whole displaced some 70 mi SE of the tightly wound position suggested by these other conventional observation methods, and where the deep layer q-g forcing would really more favorably place that low - over roughly Clarksburg, WV this hour, smearing into PA. I'm thinking part of that is because this S/W got a tremendous convectively coupled feedback when it west of it's current position. It's almost like a blown up lamphoon ... meso-beta scale low that 'acquiring' synoptic/baroclinic profiling. If that's true it's likely transition anyway as it trundles toward the Tri State region, maybe "capturing" the actual low once it establishes real jet. mechanics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It started out as a full fledged nor Easter . Now it’s going up over far western New England Oh yeah but that movement didn’t happen recently. It’s going to go over NH/ME where it’s been tracking for days I thought. It’s funny the perspective changing greatly based on expected outcome. To BTV it’s going to be a breezy, wet synoptic nor’easter. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 339 PM EDT Friday...A dynamic and impactful nor`easter is set to develop off the Mid- Atlantic coast this evening bringing widespread significant, but not historical rainfall to majority of the region this weekend. The system is currently closed off over eastern Ohio and will continue to track eastward and hug the East Coast tonight. As it strengthens, it will deepen to near record breaking pressure for this time of year, with models bottoming out near 984. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Oh yeah but that movement didn’t happen recently. It’s going to go over NH/ME where it’s been tracking for days I thought. It’s funny the perspective changing greatly based on expected outcome. To BTV it’s going to be a breezy, wet synoptic nor’easter. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 339 PM EDT Friday...A dynamic and impactful nor`easter is set to develop off the Mid- Atlantic coast this evening bringing widespread significant, but not historical rainfall to majority of the region this weekend. The system is currently closed off over eastern Ohio and will continue to track eastward and hug the East Coast tonight. As it strengthens, it will deepen to near record breaking pressure for this time of year, with models bottoming out near 984. Well it started out as 1-3 “ + for SNE and a few posters recognized days ago it would go nw and Jack NNE with under an inch in SNE. It should track west of the CTRV. Hopefully the same track the major cane takes this fall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well it started out as 1-3 “ + for SNE and a few posters recognized days ago it would go nw and Jack NNE with under an inch in SNE. It should track west of the CTRV. Hopefully the same track the major cane takes this fall Jackpot has always been Western areas of SNE. Find me one post where Eastern SNE was going to get a lot of rain? 1-3 inches days ago and it still is. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 7 hours ago, kdxken said: "This will be a soaker with the most rain west where there can be 1-3”+. The least across eastern MA where likely 0.50” will do it. I’m watching the trends…the latest HRRR has pushed heavier rain a bit farther east. " Eweather Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 Just what hippie wants more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 13 minutes ago, kdxken said: Jackpot has always been Western areas of SNE. Find me one post where Eastern SNE was going to get a lot of rain? 1-3 inches days ago and it still is. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 Euro/GGEM bang 6/6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 42 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Euro/GGEM bang 6/6. Amazing how all models / ensembles bring in summer so hard and fast. Really locking and loading it quickly . And then suddenly.. last summer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 In DC with a tor to my north and tor to my south lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Instead of watering your grass, it floats away some covered bridges? Yeah I live in that light green spot. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: In DC with a tor to my north and tor to my south lol Woah. Those are legit supercells 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Amazing how all models / ensembles bring in summer so hard and fast. Really locking and loading it quickly . And then suddenly.. last summer Yeah it was relatively easy to see, when dissecting last weeks LR ( 5/24ish looking into 6/3- 6/8ish) ensemble smoothed means versus their OP counterparts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah it was relatively easy to see, when dissecting last weeks LR ( 6/3- 6/8ish) ensemble smoothed means versus their OP counterparts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That's a good album 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 Four in New England last year for June can we double it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 I can't speak for other regions, but we're kinda "due". <3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 8 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: I can't speak for other regions, but we're kinda "due". <3 We’re kinda due for everything. Outside of Vermont flooding it’s been a boring decade. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 We’re very over due for .. 1) Strong Direct cane hit 2) Tors thruout region 3) Snow 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We’re very over due for .. 1) Strong Direct cane hit 2) Tors thruout region 3) Snow 1938/1635. let's taboo/catastrophe and get it over with. another 50-200 between hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We’re very over due for .. 1) Strong Direct cane hit 2) Tors thruout region 3) Snow Widespread hundies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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