May 2025 Obs/Discussion

[Damage In Tolland]

31 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

There are these wx sayings, "similar patterns breed similar storms" and "when it's good, it can be REAL good!"

First, I will get this out of the way,  CoastalWx is once again STEAMED this did not happen in this past winter!

This storm is almost a carbon copy of the last storm, except everything is ~100 mi NW.

 

The 500 trough evolution is ideal.  The trough over the Mid-Atlantic is at first neutrally titled, and does a full 90 deg swing negative as it moves across New England.  That's how you do it for a classic!  The last storm did this as well.

982 mb for a central pressure over New England is very impressive for late May.  I can not recall a low this deep here this late, esp. over land.
 

Embedded tstms look to be widespread, even the cool sector of the storm. Few hundred CAPE is common across the region on the models as the storm winds up.  That does not happen often w/ a Nor'easter, but given it is late May, by default you will have some CAPE around.

Big R+ potential in western sections w/ the deformation.  Can it look any more classic on the HRRR forecast radar valid 18z Sat?

 

Snow once again likely in the mtns (above 4000 ft this time) and probably several inches on Mt Washington as a rather cold air mass for this time of year flushes in behind the storm.

 

Too bad not much surface based instability for tors . This would be ideal for that if we had some . Still wouldn’t be shocking to gin up a few spinners in warm sector 

[Damage In Tolland]

90’s!

https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1928533956883878229?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[Chrisrotary12]

Synoptically impressive but barely enough QPF to water the grass. 

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Synoptically impressive but barely enough QPF to water the grass. 

 

Instead of watering your grass, it floats away some covered bridges?

[kdxken]

Not good for the hippy.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Shocking it keeps moving west . Shocking I say

[wx2fish]

18 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Synoptically impressive but barely enough QPF to water the grass. 

Meanwhile the 12k and hrrr are 1.5"+ for us. Probably lean something toward the middle with an inch or so, closer to the globals

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Shocking it keeps moving west . Shocking I say

Has it though when you toggle the actual storm features on model sites?

Looks pretty steady past couple days.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Has it though when you toggle the actual storm features on model sites?

Looks pretty steady past couple days.

It started out as a full fledged nor Easter . Now it’s going up over far western New England 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

There are these wx sayings, "similar patterns breed similar storms" and "when it's good, it can be REAL good!"

First, I will get this out of the way,  CoastalWx is once again STEAMED this did not happen in this past winter!

This storm is almost a carbon copy of the last storm, except everything is ~100 mi NW.

 

The 500 trough evolution is ideal.  The trough over the Mid-Atlantic is at first neutrally titled, and does a full 90 deg swing negative as it moves across New England.  That's how you do it for a classic!  The last storm did this as well.

982 mb for a central pressure over New England is very impressive for late May.  I can not recall a low this deep here this late, esp. over land.
 

Embedded tstms look to be widespread, even the cool sector of the storm. Few hundred CAPE is common across the region on the models as the storm winds up.  That does not happen often w/ a Nor'easter, but given it is late May, by default you will have some CAPE around.

Big R+ potential in western sections w/ the deformation.  Can it look any more classic on the HRRR forecast radar valid 18z Sat?

 

Snow once again likely in the mtns (above 4000 ft this time) and probably several inches on Mt Washington as a rather cold air mass for this time of year flushes in behind the storm.

 

At present it's an odd a system.  Both sat and rad trends are decoupled from the surface frontal tapestry ...which features a 1002 mb low, but in whole displaced some 70 mi SE of the tightly wound position suggested by these other conventional observation methods, and where the deep layer q-g forcing would really more favorably place that low - over roughly Clarksburg, WV this hour, smearing into PA.  

I'm thinking part of that is because this S/W got a tremendous convectively coupled feedback when it west of it's current position. It's almost like a blown up lamphoon ... meso-beta scale low that 'acquiring' synoptic/baroclinic profiling. 

If that's true it's likely transition anyway as it trundles toward the Tri State region, maybe "capturing" the actual low once it establishes real jet.  mechanics.  

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It started out as a full fledged nor Easter . Now it’s going up over far western New England 

Oh yeah but that movement didn’t happen recently.  It’s going to go over NH/ME where it’s been tracking for days I thought.

It’s funny the perspective changing greatly based on expected outcome.  To BTV it’s going to be a breezy, wet synoptic nor’easter.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 339 PM EDT Friday...A dynamic and impactful nor`easter is set
to develop off the Mid- Atlantic coast this evening bringing
widespread significant, but not historical rainfall to majority of
the region this weekend. The system is currently closed off over
eastern Ohio and will continue to track eastward and hug the East
Coast tonight. As it strengthens, it will deepen to near record
breaking pressure for this time of year, with models bottoming out
near 984. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Oh yeah but that movement didn’t happen recently.  It’s going to go over NH/ME where it’s been tracking for days I thought.

It’s funny the perspective changing greatly based on expected outcome.  To BTV it’s going to be a breezy, wet synoptic nor’easter.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 339 PM EDT Friday...A dynamic and impactful nor`easter is set
to develop off the Mid- Atlantic coast this evening bringing
widespread significant, but not historical rainfall to majority of
the region this weekend. The system is currently closed off over
eastern Ohio and will continue to track eastward and hug the East
Coast tonight. As it strengthens, it will deepen to near record
breaking pressure for this time of year, with models bottoming out
near 984. 

Well it started out as 1-3 “ + for SNE and a few posters recognized days ago it would go nw and Jack NNE with under an inch in SNE.  It should track west of the CTRV. Hopefully the same track the major cane takes this fall 

[kdxken]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well it started out as 1-3 “ + for SNE and a few posters recognized days ago it would go nw and Jack NNE with under an inch in SNE.  It should track west of the CTRV. Hopefully the same track the major cane takes this fall 

Jackpot has always been Western areas of SNE. Find me one post where Eastern SNE was going to get a lot of rain? 1-3 inches days ago and it still is.

.

[kdxken]

7 hours ago, kdxken said:

"This will be a soaker with the most rain west where there can be 1-3”+. The least across eastern MA where likely 0.50” will do it. I’m watching the trends…the latest HRRR has pushed heavier rain a bit farther east. "

 

Eweather

Bump

[kdxken]

Just what hippie wants more rain.

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Jackpot has always been Western areas of SNE. Find me one post where Eastern SNE was going to get a lot of rain? 1-3 inches days ago and it still is.

.

 

[Torch Tiger]

Euro/GGEM bang 6/6.  

[Damage In Tolland]

42 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Euro/GGEM bang 6/6.  

Amazing how all models / ensembles bring in summer so hard and fast. Really locking and loading it quickly . And then suddenly.. last summer 

[WxWatcher007]

In DC with a tor to my north and tor to my south lol

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Instead of watering your grass, it floats away some covered bridges?

Yeah I live in that light green spot. Lol

[Chrisrotary12]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

In DC with a tor to my north and tor to my south lol

Woah. Those are legit supercells

[Torch Tiger]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Amazing how all models / ensembles bring in summer so hard and fast. Really locking and loading it quickly . And then suddenly.. last summer 

Yeah it was relatively easy to see, when dissecting last weeks LR ( 5/24ish looking into 6/3- 6/8ish) ensemble smoothed means versus their OP counterparts. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah it was relatively easy to see, when dissecting last weeks LR ( 6/3- 6/8ish) ensemble smoothed means versus their OP counterparts. 

 

[Torch Tiger]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

That's a good album 

[kdxken]

Four in New England last year for June can we double it?

[Torch Tiger]

I can't speak for other regions, but we're kinda "due".  <3  

[Chrisrotary12]

8 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

I can't speak for other regions, but we're kinda "due".  <3  

We’re kinda due for everything. Outside of Vermont flooding it’s been a boring decade. 

[Damage In Tolland]

We’re very over due for ..

1) Strong Direct cane hit 

2) Tors thruout region 

3) Snow 

[Torch Tiger]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’re very over due for ..

1) Strong Direct cane hit 

2) Tors thruout region 

3) Snow 

1938/1635.  let's taboo/catastrophe and get it over with. another 50-200 between hopefully

[dendrite]

27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’re very over due for ..

1) Strong Direct cane hit 

2) Tors thruout region 

3) Snow 

Widespread hundies