May 2025 Obs/Discussion

[ineedsnow]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s coming soon and hot , moist and heavy. They are worried 

who cares if it gets hot and humid in June and July.. Then we can hopefully look forward to beach days and big storms.. Ive been thinking we start heating up the first week of June

[ineedsnow]

3 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Ineedsnow will be trying to book a cabin up at Savoy SP. 

I might have to take a drive to see it one more time 

[ineedsnow]

12z HRRR pos Depth maps show I might not have to go far 

[ineedsnow]

HRRR even changes over here briefly.. if we can get some heavier precip in at the right time it might be fun.. 

[Typhoon Tip]

40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s coming soon and hot , moist and heavy. They are worried 

probably this summer 'initiation event' ...first of it's kind, if it indeed takes place as currently hinted in that time frame, won't be of the higher DP ilk. 

It's got the over top appeal.  

DPs tend to be higher when we get WAR retrogrades with source arriving from the Arklotex region/Gulf.  

When the ridge blossoms and is well timed with a heat expulsion from the west ( as I outlined above a -d(PNA) switch in the index), it's pulling air up and over the ridge and it's thus arid kinetically charged air from the the Sonora Desert to west TX region.  

These source/origin differences matter. 

The over-top variant can then evolve into a DP richer scenario given time ... because as they then go on to relax, the flow veers more SW, switching from the initial WNW delivery.  Then the source is more deep south's continental bio farts and also Gulf of Mexico entrained air.  

This is all meaningless if the current signal changes - just as it sets right now in the guidance, the initial arrival is from that more arid description above.  It's kind of like a mid 80s/62 DP ... 90/63.   If the expulsion/'Sonoran heat release' is upper tier, than the temperature side of that would naturally be higher. 

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

HRRR even changes over here briefly.. if we can get some heavier precip in at the right time it might be fun.. 

I'm just glad it gone by late Friday... 

Saturday's gonna suck though - but it won't be sheets of rain with nape soothing cat paws in the hills at least.  The flow on the backside of this thing isn't strong.  Not enough gradient.  That actually limits the downslope drying potential  as this thing stalls while death gasping up there over the N GOM ...  stagnating a saturated low level that is capped over by post system inversion just above.  So that means a putrid Saturday - if more actual NW wind occurs, that might help offset that.  We'll see.

Otherwise, Sunday should be a marked improvement. 

[Typhoon Tip]

If loop below it really exemplifies...  really is about as bad a synoptic predicament as possible without a comet impact on Earth ...

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

[Cyclone-68]

Just something I noticed in the point and click. No WAY can this be correct..Thunderstorms with cold temps and an easterly wind? That’s rubbish, no?

Thursday

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 3pm, then showers between 3pm and 5pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Patchy fog. High near 51. Northeast wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

[kdxken]

47 at present with a nice breeze making it feel even nicer. Enjoy folks!

[iceman1]

rain mow rain mow come on man enough its just may and i am tired of mowing already  

[Typhoon Tip]

small consolation perhaps but in looking over the qpf from various products this has a real chance at either maxing or being prolific enough right where there is lingering deficits/ongoing drought monitoring up in ne ma/se nh

[powderfreak]

Where was this pattern this past winter?  GFS trying to organize another coastal low middle of next week.

Nice low end warning event centered along the Pike, ha.

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Just something I noticed in the point and click. No WAY can this be correct..Thunderstorms with cold temps and an easterly wind? That’s rubbish, no?

Thursday

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 3pm, then showers between 3pm and 5pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Patchy fog. High near 51. Northeast wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Elevated instability

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Elevated instability

Could be a rumble of thunder in  SE areas.

[Cyclone-68]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Elevated instability

Thanks Wiz you teach me something new everyday ☺️

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Could be a rumble of thunder in  SE areas.

yeah gets marginally unstable aloft with some pretty steep lapse rates.  

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Thanks Wiz you teach me something new everyday ☺️

It's probably a low probability but just enough elevated instability present that someone may get a rumble. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

23 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Where was this pattern this past winter?  GFS trying to organize another coastal low middle of next week.

Nice low end warning event centered along the Pike, ha.

Effing brutal, I’m supposed to chaperone my kids class at Six Flags on Wednesday. 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Just something I noticed in the point and click. No WAY can this be correct..Thunderstorms with cold temps and an easterly wind? That’s rubbish, no?

Thursday

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 3pm, then showers between 3pm and 5pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Patchy fog. High near 51. Northeast wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Same process as thundersnow, rare but interesting.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Where was this pattern this past winter?  GFS trying to organize another coastal low middle of next week.

Nice low end warning event centered along the Pike, ha.

Yeah ... a donut stuffing machine of a CCB stackin snow totals to nut sacks while you're sunny at 7 F looking at a dense cirrus shield on your southern horizon

 sounds 'bout right

[powderfreak]

WTF is that bright thing in the sky?  

[mreaves]

58 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

WTF is that bright thing in the sky?  

Me going outside into the slightly less overcast sky.

[weatherwiz]

Wow...don't see this too often. 

A tornado watch for parts of Ohio and Pennsylvania...under a marginal risk.

An MCD was issued 1:46 saying watch unlikely (20%)...then at 2:40 a tornado watch comes out. 

Environment not terrible with the breaks in the sun there

[weatherwiz]

17 hours ago, dendrite said:

I expect the 798hr cfs from you in July.

It's coming!!!

No soundings available, however, if you close your eyes you can see the EML coming straight for us

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Wow...don't see this too often. 

A tornado watch for parts of Ohio and Pennsylvania...under a marginal risk.

An MCD was issued 1:46 saying watch unlikely (20%)...then at 2:40 a tornado watch comes out. 

Environment not terrible with the breaks in the sun there

Making 'merica great agi'n has NWS short staffed and stressed to substantive analysis  ?

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Making 'merica great agi'n has NWS short staffed and stressed to substantive analysis  ?

I wonder if local offices pushes for it. They are under a plume of steeper lapse rates moving in from the west and the breaks have yielded some very steep llvl lapse rates. The HRRR does have a few intense storms developing in the next hour or two. Dewpoints on the lower side though for what you'd like to see

[Typhoon Tip]

The epicosity of suck is absolute today...  45 F, slate gray with wind at times has utterly 0 redeeming value.  

Between today, tomorrow, right thru early Saturday is basically rock bottom for this spring if you ask me.   Hell if it'd done this crap in April, I'd almost give it a pass because April's abysmality ( if that could ever be a word ) leaves no expectation anyway so it's kind of living up to it's billing..  But this?  In late May?  Nope, it is too late in the year to be save rep-wise.    Pure putrescence

[Typhoon Tip]

I wish there was a functional feature to block a chosen person's ability to place an emoji upon the down right corner of these posts...   So when some -SAD insufferable incel puts a 100% approval on a hate post it tells them, 'seek help' instead.   LOL

[CoastalWx]

Models are downright nasty here tomorrow aftn. That is quite the LLJ. I'm also noticing strong low level frontogenesis (coastal front) somewhere near 128 to about here or so. In fact HRRR has over 4.75 here. Seems right with instability aloft and strong LLJ helping with convergence. And yes, snow above 1500' or so in srn VT, Berks, and Monads.

[CoastalWx]

3K NAM with about 4.8" in cstl pym county too. Definitely a low level sig there. 12K NAM tracks low to PSM.