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May 2025 Obs/Discussion


weatherwiz
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Just now, WhiteLawns said:

@weatherwizif you had to pick between the great barrington area or goshen ct where would you go?

Probably Great Barrington...only issue is I don't think there are a ton of good viewing spots...I've gone there a few times before but they are a magnet for big storms

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Just now, ineedsnow said:

just waiting for it to die out since it would be in chasing range for me in a bit 

glad a good chunk so far is going to my northwest. skill basking in sun here. watching the southern edge of that stuff..that is going to swing through here later. I'm only going to have to go up the road to a parking lot. 

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first warning of the year!!

* At 235 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Ashfield, or
  9 miles southwest of Greenfield, moving northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
           to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
  Warwick, Erving, Sunderland, Buckland, Whately, Orange, Templeton,
  Wendell, Athol, Northfield, Deerfield, Gill, Conway, Royalston,
  Montague, Greenfield, Bernardston, Phillipston, Leverett, and
  Leyden.
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3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

its warmer than most of the short term models are showing.. only one that is really close is the 3k NAM

 

2 minutes ago, radarman said:

The 3km nammy this morning resolved the heat and dews better than any run of the HRRR for this area at least

yup mentioned that this morning.. all other models were to cold and dry

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Looking at high res vis loop you can tell the cu field east of EEN-HFD is moving more N than E ...

I've seen this sort of failure set up before.  We'll see how it works out today ... but as those broken lines move across that axis described above, there may be weakening

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7 minutes ago, radarman said:

The 3km nammy this morning resolved the heat and dews better than any run of the HRRR for this area at least

oh man I forgot to look at the 3km this morning. Just looked now...usually that model is about as tame as tame as can be with convection (and is usually right lol). I wish I looked earlier...for it to show what they did would have netted confidence even more. 

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4 minutes ago, radarman said:

I'd keep an eye on the interaction between the discrete cell moving through Whately merging into the linear segment. Turner's Falls area would be the target, as usual.  Valley hotspot.

trying to figure out what to do. I want to head north a bit but with my luck it will shift east and ill wish i didnt leave 

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