2025 ENSO/Winter Speculation

[Go Kart Mozart]

Well, that read woke me up.  At least it sounds like another ratter is unlikely?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Well, that read woke me up.  At least it sounds like another ratter is unlikely?

I don't think it will be a ratter, but there are some limitations.

[Prismshine Productions]

I don't think it will be a ratter, but there are some limitations.

Little warner and less snowy than last year

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[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Little warner and less snowy than last year

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Little warmer and more snowy..at least for most of SNE.

[H2Otown_WX]

On 8/28/2025 at 6:53 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Little warmer and more snowy..at least for most of SNE.

Or will we get screwed with micro precision again?

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Or will we get screwed with micro precision again?

Even if we did, I'll take my chances on more snowfall than last year.

[Prismshine Productions]

Little warmer and more snowy..at least for most of SNE.

What about the interior then?

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[George001]

23 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Or will we get screwed with micro precision again?

That is certainly a possibility, but things do look a bit better than they did last time going in, at least for now. For what it’s worth ENSO will be working in our favor for the first time since 21-22. The past 3 winters were 2 modoki la Nina’s and an east based strong Nino. Like 21-22, it looks like we are headed for an east based La Niña, a weaker version of the 21-22 event looks like a solid ENSO analog. 

[bristolri_wx]

The September runs of CanSIPS and CFS monthly don’t look terrible for us. That’s a start!

[Torch Tiger]

BIG winter incoming.

[H2Otown_WX]

On 8/31/2025 at 11:27 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even if we did, I'll take my chances on more snowfall than last year.

Great writeup as always. It's crazy how good you are at how the long range stuff works and you're not even officially a met lol. Jog my memory again on the PDO, we want it to be positive, correct?

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Great writeup as always. It's crazy how good you are at how the long range stuff works and you're not even officially a met lol. Jog my memory again on the PDO, we want it to be positive, correct?

In a perfect world, yes, but the PDO is more of a longer term oscillation that doesn't always correlate to our sensible weather.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/1/2025 at 12:27 AM, Prismshine Productions said:

What about the interior then?

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How were you relative to normal snowfall last year?

[Typhoon Tip]

On 8/27/2025 at 12:53 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

100%. I feel like John and Bluewave (Chris) act like we are in this new foreign world where up is down and down is up, but we have always had variance...just maybe its getting warmer and that's all. I understand some of these theories about how said warmth changes things and how the West warm pool/-PDO maybe be permanent etc, but we need some more time to more seriously entertain that IMO. Chris mores than John seems to disregard any possible avenue to favorable outcomes because "what used to be favorable no longer is in this new, warmer climate". I think that is a bit much.

Mmm not right.   The bold is a miss-representation of both intent, but even black and white written word. 

For someone that spends the amount of time as you do, composing these various articulations, you should perhaps spend as much focus for clarity on the other side of the pen.  

"... if this winter behaves incongruently more so than "average weirdness" ( haha ), which again... was suggested by climate model/predictions all along ( so is not unprecedented in that sense, the rise in 'unpredictability')  ... it's fair to consider the classical methods are becoming less reliable. .."   

I've always made it clear ( ... when not being a snarky douche on purpose because it is fun to spark off meaningless internet fights haha ) that this is an art of tendencies.  "Less Reliable" intimates that to the objective reader.  That is not "John seemingly disregarding" anything. 

Aside from the fact that multiple other times, I literally have to write the sentence, "keep in mind, this is tendency" - which shockingly, never seems to penetrate or modulate the readers comprehension, particularly when having to do so violates the dignity of the curvaceous winter model.  Gee.

I mean come on... we're past this, or should have been 20 fuckum years ago, or whenever it was that we learned climate is a jagged serrated affair over time.  The trend is not arguable. Our winters are suffering.  That tendency model is constructed by the deeper trend analysis.  Not by these transient seasonal teleconnectors, which are also flat empirically already demoing this is all academic at this point.   It's silly to try and argue.    You can get a big winter.  Fuck yeah. Of course.  We are more apt to observe that in 1900 than 1990, and more apt to do so in 1990 than 2025.   And unless "broader consideration" changes, even less so in 2050. That's the reality of our world.   Get used to compensating, and valid, reasoning that upsets the apple-cart of classic modes.   

[Prismshine Productions]

How were you relative to normal snowfall last year?

Slightly above (+3.6", 60.1 total)

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[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Slightly above (+3.6", 60.1 total)

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Probably similar.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm not right.   The bold is a miss-representation of both intent, but even black and white written word. 

For someone that spends the amount of time as you do, composing these various articulations, you should perhaps spend as much focus for clarity on the other side of the pen.  

"... if this winter behaves incongruently more so than "average weirdness" ( haha ), which again... was suggested by climate model/predictions all along ( so is not unprecedented in that sense, the rise in 'unpredictability')  ... it's fair to consider the classical methods are becoming less reliable. .."   

I've always made it clear ( ... when not being a snarky douche on purpose because it is fun to spark off meaningless internet fights haha ) that this is an art of tendencies.  "Less Reliable" intimates that to the objective reader.  That is not "John seemingly disregarding" anything. 

Aside from the fact that multiple other times, I literally have to write the sentence, "keep in mind, this is tendency" - which shockingly, never seems to penetrate or modulate the readers comprehension, particularly when having to do so violates the dignity of the curvaceous winter model.  Gee.

I mean come on... we're past this, or should have been 20 fuckum years ago, or whenever it was that we learned climate is a jagged serrated affair over time.  The trend is not arguable. Our winters are suffering.  That tendency model is constructed by the deeper trend analysis.  Not by these transient seasonal teleconnectors, which are also flat empirically already demoing this is all academic at this point.   It's silly to try and argue.    You can get a big winter.  Fuck yeah. Of course.  We are more apt to observe that in 1900 than 1990, and more apt to do so in 1990 than 2025.   And unless "broader consideration" changes, even less so in 2050. That's the reality of our world.   Get used to compensating, and valid, reasoning that upsets the apple-cart of classic modes.   

Well, that's the thing....you go on so many snarky diatribes regarding how a viable winter outlook can be produced by copy and pasting the past 10 or so years, that it's tough to gauge where exactly you stand. Seriously, I would need to see a bit more than just this year.....my stance is if we make into the next decade in this same winter rut, then it's time to operate under the assumption that we've reached a tipping point, so to speak.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, that's the thing....you go on so many snarky diatribes regarding how a viable winter outlook can be produced by copy and pasting the past 10 or so years, that it's tough to gauge where exactly you stand. Seriously, I would need to see a bit more than just this year.....my stance is if we make into the next decade in this same winter rut, then it's time to operate under the assumption that we've reached a tipping point, so to speak.

See I don’t even quantify it that strictly … I mean, I know what you’re saying there, but I think it’s more apt to say that the return rate for big winters (which might even be a subjective powder keg) is going to get less and less and just leave it at that.  Even acceptable winters rarefying moving forward.  

We’re not at 0 now tho 

To state at the obvious… ruts can and will occur independent of climate change. However, with the ladder aspect raging on would increase return rate of the ruts.  We have to kind of think of it that way. 

Btw, n my own methods, toying with the notion that the winter or a quasi winter state is early loaded. I have no idea how that conforms or does not conform to anyone or any consensus.  I don’t really get into seasonal forecasting

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

See I don’t even quantify it that strictly … I mean, I know what you’re saying there, but I think it’s more apt to say that the return rate for big winters (which might even be a subjective powderkeg) is going to get less and less and just leave it at that.  Even acceptable winters raritying moving forward.  

We’re not at 0 now tho 

To state at the obvious… ruts can and will occur independent of climate change. However, with the ladder aspect raging on would increase return rate of the ruts.  We have to kind of think of it that way. 

Btw, n my own methods, toying with the notion that the winter or a quasi winter state is early loaded. I have no idea how that conforms or does not conform to anyone or any consensus.  I don’t really get into seasonal forecasting

I agree.

I also am keene on the idea of a mid winter SSW, for whatever that is worth...I know those are a mixed bag.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

BIG winter incoming.

No, but better.