Napril 2025 Obs/Discussion!

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man that model is broken again. 

probably be back to nothing at 0z

[ineedsnow]

nice fire hose from that south at hr 141

[ineedsnow]

eastern areas not so bad yet though...  western areas 

[powderfreak]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs massively caving 

Yeah that’s not even close to 12z’s look.

Sort of spares SE MA but that’s just pumping moisture on SE flow for days.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How come no one posted GFS/ GEFS?

Bc it’s a shit model lately. What a joke and a cave

[CoastalWx]

Eventually migrates east. What a disaster that model is.

[powderfreak]

39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You guys do the same in winter.Post the snowy models and ignore the non snowy . Now y’all doing it with potential rains lol

Ok, what’s the excuse now?  You’ve got every model showing a multi-day wet period.

For the record I’m not saying 3-5” of rain is falling but there seems to be a high probability of a multi-day period of clouds and occasional water.

[ineedsnow]

just keeps going.. out to day 10 and still on and off showers

[weatherwiz]

Let's not count our chickens before they shit. We're still in the range where there is a tendency for models to overstate some of these features. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Not too shabby here! at least the flow is southerly or Southeasterly and not a wheel o'reah offshore

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Let's not count our chickens before they shit. We're still in the range where there is a tendency for models to overstate some of these features. 

GEFS starting to cave.. someone is going to get a crap load of rain.. might be PA NY NJ or SNE

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GEFS starting to cave.. someone is going to get a crap load of rain.. might be PA NY NJ or SNE

How often have we seen things "cave" in this range only for there to be a trend back in the opposite direction inside D4-5? This very well could happen, we've seen it before this time of year, but this is an anomalous evolution with more than one feature. Any subtle difference in evolution could have a vast difference on sensible weather. 

[Damage In Tolland]

40 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

we flood!

You do realize most of this a week out will end up west of us right ?

[ineedsnow]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You do realize most of this a week out will the up west of us right ?

its been trending north and east.. we will see though

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

How often have we seen things "cave" in this range only for there to be a trend back in the opposite direction inside D4-5? This very well could happen, we've seen it before this time of year, but this is an anomalous evolution with more than one feature. Any subtle difference in evolution could have a vast difference on sensible weather. 

ya that's why I included other areas just not sure yet but looking more likely 

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Let's not count our chickens before they shit. We're still in the range where there is a tendency for models to overstate some of these features. 

For sure… but if you are going on camera for the news, you’re probably putting a few rain drops on the extended map.

Maybe it turns out to be nice weather instead, but one could make a generalized forecast right now that some rainfall is likely happening along the east coast.

[H2Otown_WX]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You do realize most of this a week out will end up west of us right ?

That is climo for these sort of setups I think

[kdxken]

10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

its been trending north and east.. we will see though

I'm hoping that's not the case and he's finally right for once.

[SouthCoastMA]

Wagons west

[kdxken]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

How often have we seen things "cave" in this range only for there to be a trend back in the opposite direction inside D4-5? This very well could happen, we've seen it before this time of year, but this is an anomalous evolution with more than one feature. Any subtle difference in evolution could have a vast difference on sensible weather. 

"It's a crapshoot at this range. Nobody knows"

 

[Damage In Tolland]

I’d buy into it if was mid- late summer. Not in Mayorch though. This has a central apps up to S VT kind of look 

[Baroclinic Zone]

What a great stretch to close this month. The rains helped immensely but we need more. The spring growth push still dried out the underbrush, so let’s throw in some solid soakers in the next couple weeks to subdue fire risk.

[ineedsnow]

I wish we could lock this run in... if we can hold off the heat and dews until June and July then get lucky enough to have a cooler August that would be great! 

[CoastalWx]

Dews are coming. Gulf of Mexico is AN. Ass sweat here we come.

[ineedsnow]

18z CMC has a fire hose for SNE

 

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[ineedsnow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Dews are coming. Gulf of Mexico is AN. Ass sweat here we come.

I'll take it as long as we keep the 90s away.. no idea how some like it 90/75 its miserable

[ineedsnow]

perfect for Mid May

[kdxken]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Dews are coming. Gulf of Mexico is AN. Ass sweat here we come.

Meh

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Dews are coming. Gulf of Mexico is AN. Ass sweat here we come.

That’s the great thing about Friday thru next week. They want the floods.. that comes with high dews. I expect the few holdouts install tomorrow 

[kdxken]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

perfect for Mid May

Or August