2025-2026 ENSO

[FPizz]

23 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Yesterday’s Euro: phase 8 starts 12/14:

 

Today’s Euro: phase 8 starts 10 days earlier, 12/4, (with a 6+day long phase 8 implied) although I’d want to make sure it isn’t curling back into 7 and staying there:

Is the ext available to compare the same outputs?  Maybe instead of doing the loop in phase 7, it does it right on the line between 7/8 then goes back into 8.  Yesterdays did the loop in 7

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, I def. wouldn't love this in your area.

Yea, difference should be enough to get me in the game, at least. 

Mount Mansfield off to a great start.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Not surprised to see it was during a Nino too where Dec tends to lean milder anyway.  I think we had a small snow event in SNE a few days prior to that too.  

Funny, that year behaved the opposite of a nino (due to Pinatubo). Normally, you'd get the cool summer in the East preceding the el nino and the warm summer in the East following the el nino. Instead, the summer of 91 was a record warm summer in the East, and the summer of 92 was the cold summer in the East.

Of course, Pinatubo resulted in a temporary cooling, which led the snowier winters of 92-93, 93-94, and maybe even 95-96.

[GaWx]

24 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Is the ext available to compare the same outputs?  Maybe instead of doing the loop in phase 7, it does it right on the line between 7/8 then goes back into 8.  Yesterdays did the loop in 7

1. No, ext for same run comes out a day later.

——————

2. GEFS 2 days ago:

GEFS yesterday: gets to phase 8 five days earlier than any other GEFS as of then:

 

GEFS today: curled back very slightly vs yesterday (E US cold lovers wouldn’t want a curl back into phase 7) but very similar to yesterday/look how different it is vs 2 days ago!

[snowman19]

@40/70 Benchmark @Donsutherland1 @Bluewave

They are finally admitting the obvious…
 

 

“A stratospheric wave-reflection event is becoming more likely. Energy that had been expected to propagate into the stratosphere and weaken the vortex now appears more likely to reflect back into the troposphere.

This often strengthens the Atlantic jet stream and can trigger a rapid recovery in the stratospheric vortex. This is likely why recent modelling has shifted toward a more zonal pattern compared with earlier expectations.

If this occurs, and we see downward coupling from the stratosphere into the troposphere during December, then even with supportive background signals for blocking, stronger westerlies aloft could flatten the pattern and favour a more zonal setup significantly reducing the risk of sustained blocking or cold.”

 

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark @Donsutherland1 @Bluewave

They are finally admitting the obvious…
 

 

“A stratospheric wave-reflection event is becoming more likely. Energy that had been expected to propagate into the stratosphere and weaken the vortex now appears more likely to reflect back into the troposphere.

This often strengthens the Atlantic jet stream and can trigger a rapid recovery in the stratospheric vortex. This is likely why recent modelling has shifted toward a more zonal pattern compared with earlier expectations.

If this occurs, and we see downward coupling from the stratosphere into the troposphere during December, then even with supportive background signals for blocking, stronger westerlies aloft could flatten the pattern and favour a more zonal setup significantly reducing the risk of sustained blocking or cold.”

 

December has been one of the most challenging months for sustaining deep -NAO patterns since 2011. Pretty much the opposite of May. This is one of the reasons why we haven’t seen a repeat of record December snows from 2000 to 2010 around NYC. 

[anthonymm]

I like how we all gave MJO812 weenie emojis for saying everyone overestimating SE ridge and he was completely validated. I will admit I have a warm bias. Maybe some others should step up and admit it too. 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

This is pretty much the consensus idea for the first 10 days of December. The cold will spread through the Upper Midwest, the Great Lakes and then eastward. Some pieces could reach the Southeast as the ridge is flattened for a time. Unfortunately, if the latest guidance is right, like a champion fighter, the SE Ridge will pick itself up and keep coming back. Then, if some of the more recent guidance is right, namely the development of an AO+ pattern, the ridge could rebuild. The Great Lakes Area (Chicago, Detroit, Milwaukee, Toronto) and northern New England/eastern Canada should see a continuation of the cold past mid-December and perhaps onward. 

I suspect that snow will develop in the Chicago area late Saturday or Saturday night and then spread into Detroit and Toronto afterward. A moderate snowfall appears likely.

Thanks for the update, Don. This looks similar to the wintertime pattern I got when I ran the warmest CONUS Novembers forward, with cold in the Upper Midwest and Pacific Northwest. Warm south and east, with a stout SE Ridge. Hoping the ridge is underestimated a bit and milder air is able to infiltrate the Great Lakes region as well as we head into mid December.

[TheClimateChanger]

9 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

I like how we all gave MJO812 weenie emojis for saying everyone overestimating SE ridge and he was completely validated. I will admit I have a warm bias. Maybe some others should step up and admit it too. 

Could be a case of delayed, but not denied, as JB often says. I wouldn't throw in the towel just yet. Suspect we'll see some more SE ridge mischief as we head into the month of December.

[MJO812]

Once the MJO gets to phase 8 , it kills the southeast ridge and then the the polar vortex presses in. The coldest part of December is likely from the 15th to the 25th.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

I like how we all gave MJO812 weenie emojis for saying everyone overestimating SE ridge and he was completely validated. I will admit I have a warm bias. Maybe some others should step up and admit it too. 

I think a bias requires an actual forecast. I would admit that you you use reverse psychology as a defense mechanism if I were you.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

MJO moving along

Great sign

Interesting. At least at looks to be moving through at a pretty good clip, so might just be a temporary excursion in Phase 8.