2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Classic Nina December is better for points south . It gets tougher once you get to February .

You never answered my question on FB...How did you do in December 2000, 2007 and 2008?

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You never answered my question on FB...How did you do in December 2000, 2007 and 2008?

If you are looking for snowfall totals, here are select NYC-area snowfall totals.

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You never answered my question on FB...How did you do in December 2000, 2007 and 2008?

Good in December 2000, bad in 2007 and good in 2008.

[michsnowfreak]

18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

If you are looking for snowfall totals, here are select NYC-area snowfall totals.

Nearly all of that 2000 snow fell on December 30 though. 

For the record @MJO812 im certainly not saying it doesn't snow in NYC in nina decembers. Just that it's snowier than normal further north. NYC can often be on a gradient line. Plus add in the fact that those northern places already average more to begin with, and you can come up with quite a contrast by months end.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Nearly all of that 2000 snow fell on December 30 though. 

For the record @MJO812 im certainly not saying it doesn't snow in NYC in nina decembers. Just that it's snowier than normal further north. NYC can often be on a gradient line. Plus add in the fact that those northern places already average more to begin with, and you can come up with quite a contrast by months end.

You are in a way better spot than I am.

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Good in December 2000, bad in 2007 and good in 2008.

I would expect about a mean of those 3 seasons...maybe add in 2005.

[donsutherland1]

This morning revealed an unwelcome, GEFS AO forecast. If it holds, it could have implications beyond the first week of December. The base case is a generally negative AO at least to start December. But the GEFS has grown more aggressive with the AO+ scenario, with the AO reaching/exceeding +1.000 near the end of the first week in December.

For now, things still remain on course for places like the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and central or northern New England in terms of cold an snow through at least the first 7-10 days of December. Severe cold still appears unlikely.

The question afterward concerns whether the pattern will break down near mid-month or late December. The AO+ development would argue for a faster breakdown. I will need to see more data on this, but the risk of a faster breakdown has increased further since yesterday. Let's see where the GEFS and EPS are in a few days. After all, it is November 24 and model skill is weak beyond 10-14 days.

What about the SSW? As @40/70 Benchmark@bluewave@snowman19 have noted on numerous occasions, it is likely to be a reflection event. The late November cold shot and first week of December developments likely have no connection to the SSW. Whether there would be the development/redevelopment or reinforcement of blocking was the wild card. Considering the nature of this event, it increasingly appears that non-stratospheric factors will play the predominant role.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This morning revealed an unwelcome, GEFS AO forecast. If it holds, it could have implications beyond the first week of December. The base case is a generally negative AO at least to start December. But the GEFS has grown more aggressive with the AO+ scenario, with the AO reaching/exceeding +1.000 near the end of the first week in December.

For now, things still remain on course for places like the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and central or northern New England in terms of cold an snow through at least the first 7-10 days of December. Severe cold still appears unlikely.

The question afterward concerns whether the pattern will break down near mid-month or late December. The AO+ development would argue for a faster breakdown. I will need to see more data on this, but the risk of a faster breakdown has increased further since yesterday. Let's see where the GEFS and EPS are in a few days. After all, it is November 24 and model skill is weak beyond 10-14 days.

What about the SSW? As @40/70 Benchmark@bluewave@snowman19 have noted on numerous occasions, it is likely to be a reflection event. The late November cold shot and first week of December developments likely have no connection to the SSW. Whether there would be the development/redevelopment or reinforcement of blocking was the wild card. Considering the nature of this event, it increasingly appears that non-stratospheric factors will play the predominant role.

 

Expect the hostile trend in the polar domain to continue for later in December.

[qg_omega]

What a disaster shaping up

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Expect the hostile trend in the polar domain to continue for later in December.

You are warmer than the majority of forecasts i have seen on other forums and social media ( hope you fail =) ).  The epic December calls by many look like it will fail but a good December is still there.  Need the mjo to get out of 7. Maybe we will have a snowy period around the holidays which would be nice.

[Krs4Lfe]

Yeah we've seen a big breakdown in what was going to be favorable for cold and snow. December is now looking quite mild for our area. Seems like the positive AO will link up with SER and keep us warmer than normal in December. That won't work for snowfall chances. Our best hope is that the cold and snow builds up to our west and north and cold can bleed down towards our area. But like I said yesterday, things don't look too active for much of CONUS for forseeable future. 

[MJO812]

Just now, Krs4Lfe said:

Yeah we've seen a big breakdown in what was going to be favorable for cold and snow. December is now looking quite mild for our area. Seems like the positive AO will link up with SER and keep us warmer than normal in December. That won't work for snowfall chances. Our best hope is that the cold and snow builds up to our west and north and cold can bleed down towards our area. But like I said yesterday, things don't look too active for much of CONUS for forseeable future. 

The weeklies have been a huge failure.  They were the ones that showed alot of cold air.