2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, cmillzz said:

Guidance has also backed off on the blocking a bit.

 

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Slightly

Yesterday’s NAO fcast had clear majority of members going <0:

Today’s NAO fcast: only ~50% go <0

 

AO comparisons are similar.

What will the next few days show?  This is pretty volatile.

[GaWx]

MJO forecasted to be in phase 8 most of rest of March. On average during Marches that were post La Niña winter, phase 8 was the 2nd coldest to phase 7 in Baltimore meaning being warm in the Mid-Atlantic/NE for the period averaged out will not be favored (note that I’m not saying anything explicitly about snow here as it’s getting late for that, especially MidAtlantic):

GEFS:

EPS:

 

@EastonSN+

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, bkviking said:

4 of those winters were colder than normal in the northeast (88-89 the exception I believe) . Western ridge patterns? 

Yup. 4 of the 5 were cold winters here. The huge exception being 1889-90 which was also warm and equally snowless. 

This year was way more extreme than normal, but let's not forget a general rule of thumb that relative to climo, a good winter east is usually meh west and vice versa.