2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

 It’s pretty amazing how quiet it is ITT with one of the most extreme cold and wintry E US progs as a whole per model consensus starting this weekend and lasting into early Feb.

[roardog]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 It’s pretty amazing how quiet it is ITT with one of the most extreme cold and wintry E US progs as a whole per model consensus starting this weekend and lasting into early Feb.

It’s probably because this thread is used for medium/long range pattern prediction while threads in each sub forum are used once an individual threat becomes realistic. 

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, roardog said:

It’s probably because this thread is used for medium/long range pattern prediction while threads in each sub forum are used once an individual threat becomes realistic. 

I’m talking about the medium range pattern prediction into early Feb (out 2 weeks). I’m not talking about any particular storm. I’m mainly talking about the extreme widespread cold in much of the US more than precip. It’s like a library in here. If it were warm for the same period, I bet this thread would be hopping like New Years Eve in Times Square.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

@GaWx Did you see that Natural Gas jumped like 86% in the last 4 days? I just checked it, and thought it was something else when the price was $5.55. It was $3.10 at the close on Friday. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

I’m talking about the medium range pattern prediction into early Feb (out 2 weeks). I’m not talking about any particular storm. I’m mainly talking about the extreme widespread cold in much of the US more than precip. It’s like a library in here. If it were warm for the same period, I bet this thread would be hopping like New Years Eve in Times Square.

Been a very solid winter here in southeast Michigan. And as we now hit the dead of winter, the cold is actually getting dangerous. Postponed plans to take nephews sledding Saturday because -35° windchills made even worse flying down a hill can literally be instant frostbite. Its been snowing near daily and we should even get in on the big storm to our south. Deep, deep winter.

With many areas in the midwest/east (where 95% of this forum lives) facing a 2nd consecutive winter of below avg temps, it definitely is a buzzkill to a handful of posters in this thread. You can only talk about warm anomalies on other parts of the planet or snowless western mountains so much before its just time to hibernate until a torch comes.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

@GaWx Did you see that Natural Gas jumped like 86% in the last 4 days? I just checked it, and thought it was something else when the price was $5.55. It was $3.10 at the close on Friday. 

 Yes, Chuck, I’ve been following NG make this historically sharp upward move this entire week.

 For those who don’t follow NG closely, why is this happening? It’s 100% related to something we closely follow ITT: E US temps.

 Look no further than this absolutely insane comparison of GEFS US pop weighted HDD for Jan 22-29th on the Jan 14th 12Z run vs the 0Z Jan 22nd run. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen anything more extreme than this amazing colder change over just a 7.5 day elapsed period:

Jan 14th 12Z run (purple) 1/22-29 US pop wted HDD:

26+23+24+27+26+25+25+23=199 or 25/day (near the green line, which straddles the normal of 25/day):

 

 

Jan 22nd 0Z run (purple) 1/22-29 US pop wted HDD:

24+31+37+37+39+37+34+36=275 or 34/day (MA normal)!

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I regret not trading it.. 1 futures contract would have profited something like +20k. 

CPC nailed it. Their long range forecast vs futures and commodities is something I am going to continue to keep track of in the future.. Or if I'm forecasting something that has volatility. I was before saying Natural Gas at $3 was cheap, and $4.50-$5.00 is the over/under mark for a cold Winter or not.... it just went into the "cold Winter" range. 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 It’s pretty amazing how quiet it is ITT with one of the most extreme cold and wintry E US progs as a whole per model consensus starting this weekend and lasting into early Feb.

I suspect most of the discussion is currently occurring in the subforums where a significant-major winter storm is forthcoming.

[donsutherland1]

As for the medium-term, I have no change in my thinking from Monday that the WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern will likely be the biggest driver of North American weather conditions through the remainder of January. That pattern is typically the coldest January pattern for the eastern half or third of the U.S., along with at least southern Ontario and Quebec. One or more lows in the single digits and one or more highs in the teens is possible in New York City. Subzero cold is likely in places like Chicago, Detroit, and Toronto.

The predominantly positive PNA comes with a heightened risk, relative to climatology, of moderate or significant snowstorms for the East Coast. With the PNA likely to be mainly positive into or through at least the first week of February, it is likely that at least one or more of the following cities will see at least one 6" or above snowstorm from the remainder of January through the first week of February: Baltimore, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, and Washington, DC. 

The only update is that the ECMWF weeklies have grown colder in the Eastern U.S. through much of February. And the kind of pattern in place is often slow to break down. After mid-February, a PNA- is a better setup for East Coast snowstorms, as wave lengths typically grow shorter.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect most of the discussion is currently occurring in the subforums where a significant-major winter storm is forthcoming.

 Thanks, Don.

1. I think it’s a combo of that and some in here who post more frequently about E US warmth because they only enjoy posting about it. I’m not against posting about warmth as I do it frequently, myself. I post whatever I see, warm or cold. That includes when I post warm Euro Weeklies that cold lovers don’t like to see. I just think it’s best if there’s a better balance regardless of warm, cold or between.

2. I’m feeling good about the 40” NYC seasonal snow total prediction I made in Dec. based off of the snowy Dec in combo with the La Niña analogs Chris and you have talked about many times.

 

 

[MJO812]

Weeklies MJO

[so_whats_happening]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 It’s pretty amazing how quiet it is ITT with one of the most extreme cold and wintry E US progs as a whole per model consensus starting this weekend and lasting into early Feb.

It certainly is but man this cold coming in is something else would not be surprised if we face single digit highs thrown in there next week and lows could be at or below 0. We face a relaxation period I want to say the beginning of February ( around the first weekend?) before a potential reload to the pattern. Also need to watch the storm threat from such a retreat of cold.

That subsurface warm pool has not budged for almost 2 months now and is moderating things further east. This seems like we go warm neutral into next fall/winter.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said:

That subsurface warm pool has not budged for almost 2 months now and is moderating things further east. This seems like we go warm neutral into next fall/winter.

Now, if we can get the PDO to flip to positive, we could get a 2014-15 redux.

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Now, if we can get the PDO to flip to positive, we could get a 2014-15 redux.

Yea im not so sure it is fully necessary but would be nice to see an increase in overall precip across the country that a +PDO tends to bring.

[so_whats_happening]

11 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

@40/70 Benchmark

Split showing up on the 6z GFS:

 

 

That is certainly interesting but placement leaves me concerned. First time in years we have a decent wave 2 production shame to see the pacific side of things weaken so much. Honestly though we are nearing February and I would not mind at this point if by mid month we push into a milder pattern into spring. I love snow but extending it into march and even april is not fun.

[roardog]

40 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

It certainly is but man this cold coming in is something else would not be surprised if we face single digit highs thrown in there next week and lows could be at or below 0. We face a relaxation period I want to say the beginning of February ( around the first weekend?) before a potential reload to the pattern. Also need to watch the storm threat from such a retreat of cold.

That subsurface warm pool has not budged for almost 2 months now and is moderating things further east. This seems like we go warm neutral into next fall/winter.

The CFS v2 is pretty much heading toward a super Nino. I’m not sure anything currently indicates that an outcome like that is likely. 

[donsutherland1]

Although these maps sometimes overstate snowfall by a category, the below map illustrates just how expansive the impacts of the storm that will ultimately bring the Northeast its biggest snowfall in perhaps nearly five years will be.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

49 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Although these maps sometimes overstate snowfall by a category, the below map illustrates just how expansive the impacts of the storm that will ultimately bring the Northeast its biggest snowfall in perhaps nearly five years will be.

2016 was 10 years ago, not 5. Although, it does feel like it just happened.

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

2016 was 10 years ago, not 5. Although, it does feel like it just happened.

You are correct. I accidentally referred to five years ago pertaining to NYC (January 30-February 4, 2021 snowstorm that brought 17.4" to NYC). 

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies mean has an even weaker SPV centered on ~2/13. @40/70 Benchmark

Yesterday’s run:

 

Today’s run:

 

 Also, look at how much colder the week of 1/26-2/1 has gotten over the last 12 days:

1/10 run:

1/22 run:

 

[michsnowfreak]

Wind chills hovering just above zero in the sun today for the last time for several days. Even the sun looks cold.

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Today’s Euro Weeklies mean has an even weaker SPV centered on ~2/13. @40/70 Benchmark

Yesterday’s run:

 

Today’s run:

 

 Also, look at how much colder the week of 1/26-2/1 has gotten over the last 12 days:

1/10 run:

1/22 run:

 

It's not done...gonna reverse.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Excerpt from my early November outlook....note that we also did indeed get an early reversal like 1981.

 

January 17, 1971: PV Split

December 4, 1981: PV Displacement

February 11, 2001: PV Split

January 2, 2002: PV Displacement

February 22, 2008: PV Displacement

January 7, 2013: PV Split

February 12, 2018: PV Split

March 20, 2025: PV Displacement

The majority of the SSW events are split between the mid winter months of January and February, with three events per month. There is also an outlier event in December,1981 and March 2025.  The primary analog events of January 17, 1971 and February 11, 2001 were both accompanied by PV splits and are the only two members to appear in both of the QBO and solar analog composites. The primary analog event of February 12, 2018 also ultimately culminated in a split of the PV, and is a member of the QBO and ENSO composite. This lends more credence to the mid winter outlier scenario that contains 6/8 the analogs. Thus the favored timeframe for a SSW and subsequent split of the polar vortex is during the January 17 to February 17 timeframe, with an increased emphasis on the latter portion of this window, which favors late season NAO blocking to commence roughly in early March.