2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

 It’s pretty amazing how quiet it is ITT with one of the most extreme cold and wintry E US progs as a whole per model consensus starting this weekend and lasting into early Feb.

[roardog]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 It’s pretty amazing how quiet it is ITT with one of the most extreme cold and wintry E US progs as a whole per model consensus starting this weekend and lasting into early Feb.

It’s probably because this thread is used for medium/long range pattern prediction while threads in each sub forum are used once an individual threat becomes realistic. 

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, roardog said:

It’s probably because this thread is used for medium/long range pattern prediction while threads in each sub forum are used once an individual threat becomes realistic. 

I’m talking about the medium range pattern prediction into early Feb (out 2 weeks). I’m not talking about any particular storm. I’m mainly talking about the extreme widespread cold in much of the US more than precip. It’s like a library in here. If it were warm for the same period, I bet this thread would be hopping like New Years Eve in Times Square.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

@GaWx Did you see that Natural Gas jumped like 86% in the last 4 days? I just checked it, and thought it was something else when the price was $5.55. It was $3.10 at the close on Friday. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

I’m talking about the medium range pattern prediction into early Feb (out 2 weeks). I’m not talking about any particular storm. I’m mainly talking about the extreme widespread cold in much of the US more than precip. It’s like a library in here. If it were warm for the same period, I bet this thread would be hopping like New Years Eve in Times Square.

Been a very solid winter here in southeast Michigan. And as we now hit the dead of winter, the cold is actually getting dangerous. Postponed plans to take nephews sledding Saturday because -35° windchills made even worse flying down a hill can literally be instant frostbite. Its been snowing near daily and we should even get in on the big storm to our south. Deep, deep winter.

With many areas in the midwest/east (where 95% of this forum lives) facing a 2nd consecutive winter of below avg temps, it definitely is a buzzkill to a handful of posters in this thread. You can only talk about warm anomalies on other parts of the planet or snowless western mountains so much before its just time to hibernate until a torch comes.

[GaWx]

58 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

@GaWx Did you see that Natural Gas jumped like 86% in the last 4 days? I just checked it, and thought it was something else when the price was $5.55. It was $3.10 at the close on Friday. 

 Yes, Chuck, I’ve been following NG make this historically sharp upward move this entire week.

 For those who don’t follow NG closely, why is this happening? It’s 100% related to something we closely follow ITT: E US temps.

 Look no further than this absolutely insane comparison of GEFS US pop weighted HDD for Jan 22-29th on the Jan 14th 12Z run vs the 0Z Jan 22nd run. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen anything more extreme than this amazing colder change over just a 7.5 day elapsed period:

Jan 14th 12Z run (purple on right) 1/22-29 US pop wted HDD:

26+23+24+27+26+25+25+23=199 or 25/day (near the green line, which straddles the normal of 25/day):

 

 

Jan 22nd 0Z run (purple on right) 1/22-29 US pop wted HDD:

24+31+37+37+39+37+34+36=275 or 34/day (MA normal)!

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I regret not trading it.. 1 futures contract would have profited something like +20k. 

CPC nailed it. Their long range forecast vs futures and commodities is something I am going to continue to keep track of in the future.. Or if I'm forecasting something that has volatility. I was before saying Natural Gas at $3 was cheap, and $4.50-$5.00 is the over/under mark for a cold Winter or not.... it just went into the "cold Winter" range.