2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

Looks like Ray @40/70 Benchmark was right about the SPV strengthening in January……
 

[snowman19]

Mentioned this in response to @Bluewave post in the NYC forum, but we haven’t seen a dry pattern of this magnitude since 2001-2002. It began in late summer, 2024
 

[EastonSN+]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Early March 2019 had a good storm in SNE...

That was a great March with back to back events which saved winter here. 

[GaWx]

 As we look ahead to Jan, here’s the wrap for Dec MJO: the last 12 days (12/20-31), which covered the torch period, turned out to track in 7-6-4-3-5, not well predicted by the models and which is typically not a cold path and can easily be mild:

The coldest day of the month in the E US was during phase 8 and phase 8 overall was the typical cold. It never was able to get into 1 and instead took a detour across eventually to 5! Nothing even close to that had been predicted. Remember all of those endless ph 8 progs?

[snowman19]

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 As we look ahead to Jan, here’s the wrap for Dec MJO: the last 12 days (12/20-31), which covered the torch period, turned out to track in 7-6-4-3-5, not well predicted by the models and which is typically not a cold path and can easily be mild:

The coldest day of the month in the E US was during phase 8 and phase 8 overall was the typical cold. It never was able to get into 1 and instead took a detour across eventually to 5! Nothing even close to that had been predicted. Remember all of those endless ph 8 progs?

It is reminiscent of a couple of winters ago when the ensembles and operationals kept showing the MJO going through phases 8-1-2 at high amplitude in the long range over and over again for months….it never happened. I believe it was the 2023-24 winter 

[GaWx]

12 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

I just do not buy Phase 6 being cold

 Well, as it turned out again using GSP, El Niño ph 6 near or inside the circle in Jan turns out to avg cold just like La Niña inside Jan ph 6:

Phase 6 during Nino Jan

77 6-9, 11-13: -7, -4, -11, -7, -20, -15, -13 (-11 W)

78 4: -6 (-6 W)

80 31: -13 (-13 W)

83 10-1: +1, +3 (+2 W)

92 3-8: +10, +13, +8, +6, +2, +1 (+7 W)

95 28-30: +1, -6, -7 (-4 W)

98 1-3, 21-2: -12, 0, +6, -3, -3 (-2 M)(-3 W)

03 10-12, 23-5: +5, -6, -10, -16, -19, -10 (-4 M)(-15 W)

05 9-19, 31: +10, +11, +11, +18, +22, +7, -1, -2, -13, -15, -14, -1 (+3 M)(-1 M)

07 9-13, 15-6, 24, 26-31: -1, -3, -4, +5, +16, +21, +5, -3, -5, +5, -2, -15, -2, -12 (+6 M)(-5 W)

10 20-1: +15, +3 (+9 M)

15 9-14, 28-31: -8, -11, -10, -1, -1, -4, -3, -2, 0, -4 (-6 S)(-2 W)

19 2-3, 25-30: +10, +11, -4, -5, -3, +1, -3, -9 (+11 S)(-4 S)

24 24-7: +6, +17, +21, +12 (+14 S)

 

So, there were 20 Nino Jan ph 6 periods:

10 W: 3 MB, 4 B, 2 N, 1 A; avg -158/36 = -4.4 for weak!

6 M: 1 B, 2 N, 2 A, 1 MA avg +43/27 = +1.2 for moderate

4 S: 2 B, 2 MA +19/18 = +1 for strong

 

81 days

BN 39

NN 16

AN 26

-66 cumulative or -1/day overall but cold concentrated when near/inside circle (-4 there vs +1 outside) similar to La Niña! For La Niña, it was overall -2/day with it averaging -5/day near/inside circle and +1 outside.

 So, the BAMwx idea of a cold E US during ph 6 in Jan in -AAM works out only for weak/mainly inside the circle and Nino is similar.

[GaWx]

Today’s ens MJO progs both later get into 6: inside circle 6 would be best for cold chance during ph 6 as just posted: also Jans with 20+ days anywhere inside circle have averaged colder than the others as I posted about before:

[Krs4Lfe]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

It is reminiscent of a couple of winters ago when the ensembles and operationals kept showing the MJO going through phases 8-1-2 at high amplitude in the long range over and over again for months….it never happened. I believe it was the 2023-24 winter 

Yeah once we entered January 2024, the mjo was projected to go into favorable stages and the pattern looked pretty good but it never materialized. However, it seems the models are holding steady with this time with the projected pattern change around January 11th. We'll torch for a bit but a PNA spike and east coast trough would be good news if it actually happens 

[MJO812]

[BuffaloWeather]

Been another great winter around the lakes. December was freezing and snowy. Over 60" already, let’s keep it rolling.

[GaWx]

Dec QBO falls some more to -26.92, the lowest on record in Dec (to 1948) vs 2014’s -25.38. This sets up the chance for a record in Jan, too, though 2015’s -26.7 likely will be close:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

That was a great March with back to back events which saved winter here. 

I think March will be good.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It is reminiscent of a couple of winters ago when the ensembles and operationals kept showing the MJO going through phases 8-1-2 at high amplitude in the long range over and over again for months….it never happened. I believe it was the 2023-24 winter 

I don't think it needs to...7 at halfway decent amplitude will do just fine to constructively interfere with the development of +TNH.

[40/70 Benchmark]

MEI is back....

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

-1.2 peak in SO, ON was up to -1.1.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

MEI is back....

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

-1.2 peak in SO, ON was up to -1.1.

Yeah, I posted on Dec 9 that the MEI updated: 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

47 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, I posted on Dec 9 that the MEI updated: 

 

Congrats

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Congrats

Not sure why you posted it again. You could have waited for the ND update, which is probably next week.

[GaWx]

   For those who are hoping for a cold Feb in the E US, Eric Webb just a little while ago posted these increasingly positive takes:

“It’s really interesting to see that we have already pushed the Pacific mean state to something in between La Nina & a modoki/Central Pacific El Niño.

Notice the recurrent appearance of westerly wind anomalies over the Western Pacific (warm colors). 

Unlike most Nina winters that usually end up being very mild in February, seeing this change in the base state already occurring tells me that this winter has a few tricks up its sleeves.”

————

“Fwiw, I separated winters that preceded cool ENSO (cold neutral or Nina) >> El Niño transition by “cold” and “warm” Februarys on the East Coast and looked at their OLR/convective anomalies in the Tropical Pacific

IMHO, given how much the Warm Pool has already advanced eastward, this year is leaning towards the “cold” February group with more convective activity or -OLR anomalies (cool colors) over the tropical West Pacific and tropical North Pacific, with a slightly weaker and eastward shifted area of +OLRa (decreased cloudiness, warm colors) near the International Dateline.”

—————

“IMHO, we have opened the door to the possibility of 2014 style Feb this year with how the low frequency state is evolving in the Pacific.”

[EasternLI]

Yeah, like I've been saying. This can start to become a very beneficial feature if you can bump it east from climo enough. I'm still having a really hard time finding any problems with any of this situation out there. It's not a bad look and with the big WWB in progress and some potential for more in the future... 

+

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Not sure why you posted it again. You could have waited for the ND update, which is probably next week.

Did it ever occur to you that I may have not viewed that random post from 4 weeks ago?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

   For those who are hoping for a cold Feb in the E US, Eric Webb just a little while ago posted these increasingly positive takes:

“It’s really interesting to see that we have already pushed the Pacific mean state to something in between La Nina & a modoki/Central Pacific El Niño.

Notice the recurrent appearance of westerly wind anomalies over the Western Pacific (warm colors). 

Unlike most Nina winters that usually end up being very mild in February, seeing this change in the base state already occurring tells me that this winter has a few tricks up its sleeves.”

————

“Fwiw, I separated winters that preceded cool ENSO (cold neutral or Nina) >> El Niño transition by “cold” and “warm” Februarys on the East Coast and looked at their OLR/convective anomalies in the Tropical Pacific

IMHO, given how much the Warm Pool has already advanced eastward, this year is leaning towards the “cold” February group with more convective activity or -OLR anomalies (cool colors) over the tropical West Pacific and tropical North Pacific, with a slightly weaker and eastward shifted area of +OLRa (decreased cloudiness, warm colors) near the International Dateline.”

—————

“IMHO, we have opened the door to the possibility of 2014 style Feb this year with how the low frequency state is evolving in the Pacific.”

I have February colder than January with +TNH from January carrying over and acting as precursor pattern fowmr wave 2 PV split to set up March.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, GaWx said:

 As we look ahead to Jan, here’s the wrap for Dec MJO: the last 12 days (12/20-31), which covered the torch period, turned out to track in 7-6-4-3-5, not well predicted by the models and which is typically not a cold path and can easily be mild:

The coldest day of the month in the E US was during phase 8 and phase 8 overall was the typical cold. It never was able to get into 1 and instead took a detour across eventually to 5! Nothing even close to that had been predicted. Remember all of those endless ph 8 progs?

I actually explicitly said this was to be expected in my seasonal outlook when noting this tendency the past several years.

[snowman19]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

   For those who are hoping for a cold Feb in the E US, Eric Webb just a little while ago posted these increasingly positive takes:

“It’s really interesting to see that we have already pushed the Pacific mean state to something in between La Nina & a modoki/Central Pacific El Niño.

Notice the recurrent appearance of westerly wind anomalies over the Western Pacific (warm colors). 

Unlike most Nina winters that usually end up being very mild in February, seeing this change in the base state already occurring tells me that this winter has a few tricks up its sleeves.”

————

“Fwiw, I separated winters that preceded cool ENSO (cold neutral or Nina) >> El Niño transition by “cold” and “warm” Februarys on the East Coast and looked at their OLR/convective anomalies in the Tropical Pacific

IMHO, given how much the Warm Pool has already advanced eastward, this year is leaning towards the “cold” February group with more convective activity or -OLR anomalies (cool colors) over the tropical West Pacific and tropical North Pacific, with a slightly weaker and eastward shifted area of +OLRa (decreased cloudiness, warm colors) near the International Dateline.”

—————

“IMHO, we have opened the door to the possibility of 2014 style Feb this year with how the low frequency state is evolving in the Pacific.”

So, he’s saying that we are going to go from a classic front-loaded (cold/snowy) La Niña winter evolution from late November to the present, then just when the classic progression into a canonical February is supposed to happen, Modoki El Niño (cold/snowy) forcing is going to take over for February and March?  That seems too unbelievable. You just don’t light switch flip the atmosphere from one completely different ENSO base state to another that quickly. There is always a lag before an atmospheric response

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Been another great winter around the lakes. December was freezing and snowy. Over 60" already, let’s keep it rolling.

The Great Lakes snowbelts were the big snowfall winner again in December relative to other areas like the West.
 

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

So, he’s saying that we are going to go from a classic front-loaded (cold/snowy) La Niña winter evolution from late November to the present, then just when the classic progression into a canonical February is supposed to happen, Modoki El Niño (cold/snowy) forcing is going to take over for February and March?  That seems too unbelievable. You just don’t light switch flip the atmosphere from one completely different ENSO base state to another that quickly. There is always a lag before an atmospheric response

 Thanks, snowman.

 Well, fortunately he’s a well respected pro-met who constantly backs up his posts with hard data. So, he’d know what he’s talking about and thus he has a ton of followers. He didn’t say anything about March, however. Just Feb.

 That being said, is he near perfect? Of course not as he’s had his share of busts. But who hasn’t? So, his and other takes are all we have right now to go off of this early from pros. I wouldn’t bet anywhere near the farm on anyone this far out, but this is very encouraging to read. Also, Ray is on a similar page. I don’t recall any pro met being down on Feb recently. But I could have missed somebody.

 Speaking of other takes, has the well respected Paul Roundy said anything definitive about Feb yet? If so, please post it. TIA.

Edit: This may be related to Webb’s optimism. Look at the OHC sharp warming:

And look at the rising AAM fcast from yesterday’s CFS:

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks, snowman.
 Well, fortunately he’s a well respected pro-met who constantly backs up his posts with hard data. So, he’d know what he’s talking about and thus he has a ton of followers. He didn’t say anything about March, however. Just Feb.
 That being said, is he near perfect? Of course not as he’s had his share of busts. But who hasn’t? So, his and other takes are all we have right now to go off of this early from pros. I wouldn’t bet anywhere near the farm on anyone this far out, but this is very encouraging to read. Also, Ray is on a similar page. I don’t recall any pro met being down on Feb recently. But I could have missed somebody.
 Speaking of other takes, has the well respected Paul Roundy said anything definitive about Feb yet? If so, please post it. TIA.
Edit: This may be related to Webb’s optimism. Look at the OHC sharp warming:

And look at the rising AAM fcast from yesterday’s CFS:

 

Pro met or not, I completely disagree that February is going to be Modoki El Niño like. We are not going to light switch flip from a canonical La Niña pattern into a Modoki El Niño pattern in a matter of weeks. It defies physics and common sense IMO. If I’m wrong….oh well. And Ray is not suggesting that we go into a Modoki El Niño pattern for February, he’s basing February and March on a possible stratospheric disruption not ENSO

EDIT: RONI: @Gawx @donsutherland1:

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Pro met or not, I completely disagree that February is going to be Modoki El Niño like. We are not going to light switch flip from a canonical La Niña pattern into a Modoki El Niño pattern in a matter of weeks. It defies physics and common sense IMO. If I’m wrong….oh well. And Ray is not suggesting that we go into a Modoki El Niño pattern for February, he’s basing February and March on a possible stratospheric disruption not ENSO

 
 1. He’s a well educated and well respected pro-met who typically backs up his posts with hard data. So, one wouldn’t think he’d risk his reputation by being a baseless weenie.

2. Just to clarify, in nothing that I quoted did Eric explicitly say he expects to go into a “Modoki El Niño pattern”. He said:

“we have already pushed the Pacific mean state to something in between La Nina & a modoki/Central Pacific El Niño.”

 Is that wrong?

3. What’s Roundy saying?

4. Otherwise, are there any other Mets making a call for Feb?

 

[Krs4Lfe]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Great Lakes snowbelts were the big snowfall winner again in December relative to other areas like the West.
 

 

One of the most mild and snowless winters for many in the west half of the US. Snow and cold has been confined to Midwest and Northeast. The dry conditions for many roll on. Dry begets dry, and without wholescale changes in the west (a west coast trough), the west will continue to lack in the snow and cold department. There were several years like that in the 2010s, with a large western ridge and eastern trough and east US was going blockbuster with the snow and west was suffering from lack of skiing and lack of water. That's similar to this year

[BuffaloWeather]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Great Lakes snowbelts were the big snowfall winner again in December relative to other areas like the West.
 

 

Some places across the tug are nearing 200" on the year already. Places south of here are 100"+ 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

So, he’s saying that we are going to go from a classic front-loaded (cold/snowy) La Niña winter evolution from late November to the present, then just when the classic progression into a canonical February is supposed to happen, Modoki El Niño (cold/snowy) forcing is going to take over for February and March?  That seems too unbelievable. You just don’t light switch flip the atmosphere from one completely different ENSO base state to another that quickly. There is always a lag before an atmospheric response

I agree...I do think the +TNH can carry over, though...maybe some misattribution going on if we get the colder Feb.