2025-2026 ENSO

[Krs4Lfe]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 0Z EPS (another run with a transition to a +PNA and a chilly E US) and the 0Z/6Z GEFS (staying -PNA and a warm E US) are in different worlds for mid Jan.

 The CPC GEFS forecasts of yesterday vs today show a bad 24 hour trend if you want it cold in the E US in mid-Jan:

Yesterday’s GEFS PNA forecast was heading up/nice trend vs earlier runs:

 

Today’s 0Z GEFS said never mind, I’ll stay -PNA through the end of the run: yuck

 

 GEFS 0Z 360 hour 2m temps: mild in E US with the cold way out to the NW….yuck

 

 But the good news is that the GEFS has had a persistent -PNA and warm E US bias over the 90 day period for this map:

 

And the EPS, a better performing and recently steadier ensemble, still has a +PNA and a chilly E US:

 

Well that is a serious risk once you have a big shake up in the Pacific. There needed to be a shakeup because the omega ridge over Central US couldn't last forever, but the storminess that was required to shake up that ridge has the risk to continue to crash into west coast. A trough over the west naturally leads to heights rising in the east, as seen in the 0z Gfs ensembles. The storminess that was needed to push that central US ridge out can be too much of a good thing, as indicated by the 0z GFS ensembles. I would give more credence to that scenario playing out 

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Well that is a serious risk once you have a big shake up in the Pacific. There needed to be a shakeup because the omega ridge over Central US couldn't last forever, but the storminess that was required to shake up that ridge has the risk to continue to crash into west coast. A trough over the west naturally leads to heights rising in the east, as seen in the 0z Gfs ensembles. The storminess that was needed to push that central US ridge out can be too much of a good thing, as indicated by the 0z GFS ensembles. I would give more credence to that scenario playing out 

Thanks for your reply. I agree it is a risk, unfortunately. But my supported hopes (GEFS 2nd week on avg has been awful and much too warm) are that today’s 0Z EPS’ moderate +PNA, which starts Jan 7th, will prevail:

 

 Today’s 12Z ens runs will be extra interesting due to this major disagreement in week 2!

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The 0Z EPS (another run with a transition to a +PNA and a chilly E US) and the 0Z/6Z GEFS (staying -PNA and a warm E US) are in different worlds for mid Jan.

 The CPC GEFS forecasts of yesterday vs today show a bad 24 hour trend if you want it cold in the E US in mid-Jan:

Yesterday’s GEFS PNA forecast was heading up/nice trend vs earlier runs:

 

Today’s 0Z GEFS said never mind, I’ll stay -PNA through the end of the run: yuck

 

 GEFS 0Z 360 hour 2m temps: mild in E US with the cold way out to the NW….yuck

 

 But the good news is that the GEFS has had a persistent -PNA and warm E US bias over the 90 day period for this map:

 

And the EPS, a better performing and recently steadier ensemble, still has a +PNA and a chilly E US:

 

World’s apart is an understatement lol One of them is going to be dead wrong. @bluewave @donsutherland1 Any thoughts on this? 
 

EDiT: @SnowGoose69 The GEFS doubled down and got stronger on the -PNA next month. It’s either going to score a really huge coup against the EPS or it’s going to go down in flames. Those two models aren’t even in the same universe right now

[donsutherland1]

35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

World’s apart is an understatement lol One of them is going to be dead wrong. @bluewave @donsutherland1 Any thoughts on this? 

The timing of the development of a PNA+ remains perhaps where the greatest uncertainty concerning the teleconnections lies. The EPS still developes a PNA+. A prolonged delay would risk breaking the colder pattern, especially if the WPO and EPO both go positive. If the AO goes positive along with the WPO and EPO while the PNA stays negative, that's a classic very warm pattern. For now, that doesn't seem to be a highly likely outcome, at least for the first half of January.

[GaWx]

12Z ensemble means update for late week 2: good news overall for E US cold and also snow lovers:

1. GEFS H5 improved somewhat vs 0Z/6Z with a slightly higher PNA though it’s still a -PNA. The best news is that it’s significantly colder with BN temps and it’s snowier in much of the region.

2. EPS is very similar to the 0Z, which makes that good news. No caving whatsoever to the ugly 0Z/6Z GEFS.

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies’ SPV at 10 mb is even weaker based on mean zonal 60N winds:

One week ago:

Today: note Jan 12th dip to only 22 vs it being way up at 47 a week ago:

 

 

[GaWx]

 Today’s Euro Weeklies came in colder in mid to late Jan:

1/12-18 a week ago:

1/12-18 today

1/19-25 today:

[stadiumwave]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Today’s Euro Weeklies’ SPV at 10 mb is even weaker based on mean zonal 60N winds:

One week ago:

Today: note Jan 12th dip to only 22 vs it being way up at 47 a week ago:

 

 

 

Ha, just coming to post. Models suck

[EasternLI]

People often wonder if the means on ensemble runs are representative of what is actually happening within the individual members. Or just some blurred out average of a bunch of members. Which is where I think the EPS clusters are very useful. The EPS clusters from todays 12z EPS suggest that was a weenie run. True -NAO blocking full support now on the day 5-7 range.

 

 

Leading cluster (containing the most members) in the day 8-10 range which also includes the OP 12z euro for further support. -NAO period, with a couple of chances at favorable coastal storm tracks in that one even.

 

Day 10-15 leading candidate for direction of travel has the -NAO decay into a burgeoning +PNA which goes absolutely ape by day 15...  I get a healthy imagination seeing a +PNA reaching for Siberia...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, +PNA is coming....regardless of model waffles. Been telling you guys that since last fall.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, +PNA is coming....regardless of model waffles. Been telling you guys that since last fall.

I've found that deep 500mb patterns are reversing year-to-year, at a much greater rate than random, 8x more likely to be a pattern than random. Jan 15 - Feb 5 last year had a +200dm Aleutian/GOA ridge. I was saying in the Summer, that period, Jan 15-Feb 5 could have a negative anomaly in that position. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

December 2025 is likely to be the lowest Winter month NAO (DJFM) since Dec 2010! 15 years!

With -NAO projected for the start of Jan, it's also looking more likely that we'll have the lowest -NAO Winter (DJFM) since 10-11. We need to beat -0.24 Winter average for that to happen. 

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

December 2025 is likely to be the lowest Winter month NAO (DJFM) since Dec 2010! 15 years!
With -NAO projected for the start of Jan, it's also looking more likely that we'll have the lowest -NAO Winter (DJFM) since 10-11. We need to beat -0.24 Winter average for that to happen. 

Either the GEFS is about to score one of its biggest coups ever or it’s about to go down in an epic dumpster fire

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

If anyone on here had a super amplified 500 mb composite version of December 1996, 1981, 1980, 1977, 1958, and 1957, it would have been an outstanding December forecast on your part.

We nave never seen such an amplified -WPO and Southwest ridge pattern with a -PNA trough in Canada before.

This is why the pattern this December was so unusual across the CONUS and North America.

 

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Either the GEFS is about to score one of its biggest coups ever or it’s about to go down in an epic dumpster fire

 

 

 

 

You never learn.  Keep posting 300 plus maps.

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If anyone on here had a super amplified 500 mb composite version of December 1996, 1981, 1980, 1977, 1958, and 1957, it would have been an outstanding December forecast on your part.

We nave never seen such an amplified -WPO and Southwest ridge pattern with a -PNA trough in Canada before.

This is why the pattern this December was so unusual across the CONUS and North America.

 

I had 1981 and 1996 in my composite...

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You never learn.  Keep posting 300 plus maps.

Hi Kettle, I’m Pot, you’re black….

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Hi Kettle, I’m Pot, you’re black….

Dude you are horrible. You have had a bad December.

Dont worry the warmth will eventually be here.

Now here is the 6z gefs run. Back to cold.

 

[donsutherland1]

The ongoing PNA- will eventually end, even if the 0z GEFS sustains it through its forecast period. Once that happens, recent historical experience (since 1980) suggests that the PNA will likely undergo a regime change to mainly positive values.

The same kind of regime change took place for all 10 25-day or longer streaks that began in November or December.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had 1981 and 1996 in my composite...

So far, since late November, we have been following a textbook front-loaded canonical La Niña pattern to a tee. They are typically cold in the east from late November through late January before they flip for February. Whether or not this one continues to follow that from here on out or becomes atypical for February and March remains to be seen. We should know where this one is headed within the next 3 weeks. I think it’s going to take a big, anomalous stratospheric shakeup (i.e. 2018), like you think might happen, to break from the evolution we have been following and not flip come February and March. As of right now, I don’t see another way to avoid the classic Niña winter footprint we are following other than that (stratosphere)…..

[40/70 Benchmark]

I also don't see the need for all of the hype right now....I see nothing exciting in terms of threats.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I also don't see the need for all of the hype right now....I see nothing exciting in terms of threats.

Not even in early to mid January?

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I also don't see the need for all of the hype right now....I see nothing exciting in terms of threats.

I agree. The forecast development WPO+/EPO+/AO-/PNA+ pattern typically does not favor large East Coast snowstorms during January 1-10. Instead, lighter snows are the rule. If one is searching for a genuine cold and snowy pattern, a WPO-/AO-/PNA+ combination is far better.

[mitchnick]

Whether you like Bamwx or not, he has some great explanations for coming pattern, and should watch.

 

[Krs4Lfe]

54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I also don't see the need for all of the hype right now....I see nothing exciting in terms of threats.

Agreed. This pattern is good for some lighter snows, but until we have a big PNA spike, no larger storm is making its way to our area. I think the OPs and the Ensembles were overzealous with the large storms they were depicting past few days. In reality, they were probably just signaling a pattern change, but the way models are….. you know the rest 

[MJO812]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Whether you like Bamwxvor not, he has some great explanations for coming pattern, and should watch.

 

Earthlight likes the pattern ahead for a big east coast snowstorm.

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Earthlight likes the pattern ahead for a big east coast snowstorm.

Seems like a lot of mets feel that way, but down here anything short of near model and ensemble consensus ends up a fail or disappointment. 

[bncho]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. The forecast development WPO+/EPO+/AO-/PNA+ pattern typically does not favor large East Coast snowstorms during January 1-10. Instead, lighter snows are the rule. If one is searching for a genuine cold and snowy pattern, a WPO-/AO-/PNA+ combination is far better.

We would need to sort out the pacific before the East Coast gets chances for big snowstorms. I dislike that +EPO a lot. It's more likely mid-late January will offer that -WPO/-EPO/-AO/+PNA combination.