2025-2026 ENSO

[Krs4Lfe]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 0Z EPS (another run with a transition to a +PNA and a chilly E US) and the 0Z/6Z GEFS (staying -PNA and a warm E US) are in different worlds for mid Jan.

 The CPC GEFS forecasts of yesterday vs today show a bad 24 hour trend if you want it cold in the E US in mid-Jan:

Yesterday’s GEFS PNA forecast was heading up/nice trend vs earlier runs:

 

Today’s 0Z GEFS said never mind, I’ll stay -PNA through the end of the run: yuck

 

 GEFS 0Z 360 hour 2m temps: mild in E US with the cold way out to the NW….yuck

 

 But the good news is that the GEFS has had a persistent -PNA and warm E US bias over the 90 day period for this map:

 

And the EPS, a better performing and recently steadier ensemble, still has a +PNA and a chilly E US:

 

Well that is a serious risk once you have a big shake up in the Pacific. There needed to be a shakeup because the omega ridge over Central US couldn't last forever, but the storminess that was required to shake up that ridge has the risk to continue to crash into west coast. A trough over the west naturally leads to heights rising in the east, as seen in the 0z Gfs ensembles. The storminess that was needed to push that central US ridge out can be too much of a good thing, as indicated by the 0z GFS ensembles. I would give more credence to that scenario playing out 

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Well that is a serious risk once you have a big shake up in the Pacific. There needed to be a shakeup because the omega ridge over Central US couldn't last forever, but the storminess that was required to shake up that ridge has the risk to continue to crash into west coast. A trough over the west naturally leads to heights rising in the east, as seen in the 0z Gfs ensembles. The storminess that was needed to push that central US ridge out can be too much of a good thing, as indicated by the 0z GFS ensembles. I would give more credence to that scenario playing out 

Thanks for your reply. I agree it is a risk, unfortunately. But my supported hopes (GEFS 2nd week on avg has been awful and much too warm) are that today’s 0Z EPS’ moderate +PNA, which starts Jan 7th, will prevail:

 

 Today’s 12Z ens runs will be extra interesting due to this major disagreement in week 2!

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The 0Z EPS (another run with a transition to a +PNA and a chilly E US) and the 0Z/6Z GEFS (staying -PNA and a warm E US) are in different worlds for mid Jan.

 The CPC GEFS forecasts of yesterday vs today show a bad 24 hour trend if you want it cold in the E US in mid-Jan:

Yesterday’s GEFS PNA forecast was heading up/nice trend vs earlier runs:

 

Today’s 0Z GEFS said never mind, I’ll stay -PNA through the end of the run: yuck

 

 GEFS 0Z 360 hour 2m temps: mild in E US with the cold way out to the NW….yuck

 

 But the good news is that the GEFS has had a persistent -PNA and warm E US bias over the 90 day period for this map:

 

And the EPS, a better performing and recently steadier ensemble, still has a +PNA and a chilly E US:

 

World’s apart is an understatement lol One of them is going to be dead wrong. @bluewave @donsutherland1 Any thoughts on this? 
 

EDiT: @SnowGoose69 The GEFS doubled down and got stronger on the -PNA next month. It’s either going to score a really huge coup against the EPS or it’s going to go down in flames. Those two models aren’t even in the same universe right now

[donsutherland1]

35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

World’s apart is an understatement lol One of them is going to be dead wrong. @bluewave @donsutherland1 Any thoughts on this? 

The timing of the development of a PNA+ remains perhaps where the greatest uncertainty concerning the teleconnections lies. The EPS still developes a PNA+. A prolonged delay would risk breaking the colder pattern, especially if the WPO and EPO both go positive. If the AO goes positive along with the WPO and EPO while the PNA stays negative, that's a classic very warm pattern. For now, that doesn't seem to be a highly likely outcome, at least for the first half of January.

[GaWx]

12Z ensemble means update for late week 2: good news overall for E US cold and also snow lovers:

1. GEFS H5 improved somewhat vs 0Z/6Z with a slightly higher PNA though it’s still a -PNA. The best news is that it’s significantly colder with BN temps and it’s snowier in much of the region.

2. EPS is very similar to the 0Z, which makes that good news. No caving whatsoever to the ugly 0Z/6Z GEFS.

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies’ SPV at 10 mb is even weaker based on mean zonal 60N winds:

One week ago:

Today: note Jan 12th dip to only 22 vs it being way up at 47 a week ago:

 

 

[GaWx]

 Today’s Euro Weeklies came in colder in mid to late Jan:

1/12-18 a week ago:

1/12-18 today

1/19-25 today:

[stadiumwave]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Today’s Euro Weeklies’ SPV at 10 mb is even weaker based on mean zonal 60N winds:

One week ago:

Today: note Jan 12th dip to only 22 vs it being way up at 47 a week ago:

 

 

 

Ha, just coming to post. Models suck