2025-2026 ENSO

[Krs4Lfe]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 0Z EPS (another run with a transition to a +PNA and a chilly E US) and the 0Z/6Z GEFS (staying -PNA and a warm E US) are in different worlds for mid Jan.

 The CPC GEFS forecasts of yesterday vs today show a bad 24 hour trend if you want it cold in the E US in mid-Jan:

Yesterday’s GEFS PNA forecast was heading up/nice trend vs earlier runs:

 

Today’s 0Z GEFS said never mind, I’ll stay -PNA through the end of the run: yuck

 

 GEFS 0Z 360 hour 2m temps: mild in E US with the cold way out to the NW….yuck

 

 But the good news is that the GEFS has had a persistent -PNA and warm E US bias over the 90 day period for this map:

 

And the EPS, a better performing and recently steadier ensemble, still has a +PNA and a chilly E US:

 

Well that is a serious risk once you have a big shake up in the Pacific. There needed to be a shakeup because the omega ridge over Central US couldn't last forever, but the storminess that was required to shake up that ridge has the risk to continue to crash into west coast. A trough over the west naturally leads to heights rising in the east, as seen in the 0z Gfs ensembles. The storminess that was needed to push that central US ridge out can be too much of a good thing, as indicated by the 0z GFS ensembles. I would give more credence to that scenario playing out 

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Well that is a serious risk once you have a big shake up in the Pacific. There needed to be a shakeup because the omega ridge over Central US couldn't last forever, but the storminess that was required to shake up that ridge has the risk to continue to crash into west coast. A trough over the west naturally leads to heights rising in the east, as seen in the 0z Gfs ensembles. The storminess that was needed to push that central US ridge out can be too much of a good thing, as indicated by the 0z GFS ensembles. I would give more credence to that scenario playing out 

Thanks for your reply. I agree it is a risk, unfortunately. But my supported hopes (GEFS 2nd week on avg has been awful and much too warm) are that today’s 0Z EPS’ moderate +PNA, which starts Jan 7th, will prevail:

 

 Today’s 12Z ens runs will be extra interesting due to this major disagreement in week 2!

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The 0Z EPS (another run with a transition to a +PNA and a chilly E US) and the 0Z/6Z GEFS (staying -PNA and a warm E US) are in different worlds for mid Jan.

 The CPC GEFS forecasts of yesterday vs today show a bad 24 hour trend if you want it cold in the E US in mid-Jan:

Yesterday’s GEFS PNA forecast was heading up/nice trend vs earlier runs:

 

Today’s 0Z GEFS said never mind, I’ll stay -PNA through the end of the run: yuck

 

 GEFS 0Z 360 hour 2m temps: mild in E US with the cold way out to the NW….yuck

 

 But the good news is that the GEFS has had a persistent -PNA and warm E US bias over the 90 day period for this map:

 

And the EPS, a better performing and recently steadier ensemble, still has a +PNA and a chilly E US:

 

World’s apart is an understatement lol One of them is going to be dead wrong. @bluewave @donsutherland1 Any thoughts on this? 

[donsutherland1]

35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

World’s apart is an understatement lol One of them is going to be dead wrong. @bluewave @donsutherland1 Any thoughts on this? 

The timing of the development of a PNA+ remains perhaps where the greatest uncertainty concerning the teleconnections lies. The EPS still developes a PNA+. A prolonged delay would risk breaking the colder pattern, especially if the WPO and EPO both go positive. If the AO goes positive along with the WPO and EPO while the PNA stays negative, that's a classic very warm pattern. For now, that doesn't seem to be a highly likely outcome, at least for the first half of January.