2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

12Z EPS held into the cold partially because of this:

[stadiumwave]

MJO Phases 7 & 8 & both really good as you move into DEC. 

Phase 6 is good in DEC until 2nd half of DEC. 

Phase 7 & 8 gets better each week as you progress into DEC. Phase 7 starts getting worse as you get into JAN. 

 

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

 

[GaWx]

1. EW 12/15-21: large change in just 3 days: will it hold?

11/25 run:

 

11/28 run:

——————

2. EW 12/8-14: huge change in just 3 days: will it hold?

11/25 run:

 

11/28 run:

 

—————

3. EW 12/1-7: huge change in just 3 days

11/25 run:

 

11/28 run:

—————-

-NYC has cooled from +1F to -4F for the 3 week period in just 3 days.

-They now have NYC at -3F for Dec as a whole, which is ~36-37F. 
Similar cold ENSO Decs were in 1954, 1964, 1966, 1975, 1981, 1988, and 2007.

 

[EastonSN+]

59 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. EW 12/15-21: large change in just 3 days: will it hold?

11/25 run:

 

11/28 run:

——————

2. EW 12/8-14: huge change in just 3 days: will it hold?

11/25 run:

 

11/28 run:

 

—————

3. EW 12/1-7: huge change in just 3 days

11/25 run:

 

11/28 run:

—————-

-NYC has cooled from +1F to -4F for the 3 week period in just 3 days.

-They now have NYC at -3F for Dec as a whole, which is ~36-37F. 
Similar cold ENSO Decs were in 1954, 1964, 1966, 1975, 1981, 1988, and 2007.

 

Thanks for this. The only good snowfall winter on the list for CPK is 64/65. 

[MJO812]

Looping in 8. Insane. 

[snowman19]

The EPS and and GEPS caved to the GEFS on the +EPO/Alaskan vortex by the 2nd week of December, but they go +PNA/-NAO so it keeps the east under a trough
 

GEFS:  https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500h_anom&rh=2025112900&fh=288&r=na&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

GEPS, EPS: 

 

[GaWx]

Back down to neutral NAO/AO week 2 similar to 2 days ago:

[snowman19]

@donsutherland1 Out of curiosity, do you have any temp/precip composites for +EPO, +PNA, -AO, -NAO Decembers?

[GaWx]

MJO from today’s 2 week runs: both now have 11+ day long phase 8s, longest since Feb 2010 and longest Dec since 1975. Lots of potential in 1st half of Dec and beyond!
 

GEFS is all in 8 12/3-13 vs yesterday’s 7 for same period:

EPS is same as yesterday:

 

[mitchnick]

Yesterday's PV forecast has it impotent thru early January again.

[MJO812]

38 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1 Out of curiosity, do you have any temp/precip composites for +EPO, +PNA, -AO, -NAO Decembers?

The EPS is starting to pick up on the negative NAO.