2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Classic Nina December is better for points south . It gets tougher once you get to February .

You never answered my question on FB...How did you do in December 2000, 2007 and 2008?

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You never answered my question on FB...How did you do in December 2000, 2007 and 2008?

If you are looking for snowfall totals, here are select NYC-area snowfall totals.

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You never answered my question on FB...How did you do in December 2000, 2007 and 2008?

Good in December 2000, bad in 2007 and good in 2008.

[michsnowfreak]

18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

If you are looking for snowfall totals, here are select NYC-area snowfall totals.

Nearly all of that 2000 snow fell on December 30 though. 

For the record @MJO812 im certainly not saying it doesn't snow in NYC in nina decembers. Just that it's snowier than normal further north. NYC can often be on a gradient line. Plus add in the fact that those northern places already average more to begin with, and you can come up with quite a contrast by months end.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Nearly all of that 2000 snow fell on December 30 though. 

For the record @MJO812 im certainly not saying it doesn't snow in NYC in nina decembers. Just that it's snowier than normal further north. NYC can often be on a gradient line. Plus add in the fact that those northern places already average more to begin with, and you can come up with quite a contrast by months end.

You are in a way better spot than I am.

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Good in December 2000, bad in 2007 and good in 2008.

I would expect about a mean of those 3 seasons...maybe add in 2005.

[donsutherland1]

This morning revealed an unwelcome, GEFS AO forecast. If it holds, it could have implications beyond the first week of December. The base case is a generally negative AO at least to start December. But the GEFS has grown more aggressive with the AO+ scenario, with the AO reaching/exceeding +1.000 near the end of the first week in December.

For now, things still remain on course for places like the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and central or northern New England in terms of cold an snow through at least the first 7-10 days of December. Severe cold still appears unlikely.

The question afterward concerns whether the pattern will break down near mid-month or late December. The AO+ development would argue for a faster breakdown. I will need to see more data on this, but the risk of a faster breakdown has increased further since yesterday. Let's see where the GEFS and EPS are in a few days. After all, it is November 24 and model skill is weak beyond 10-14 days.

What about the SSW? As @40/70 Benchmark@bluewave@snowman19 have noted on numerous occasions, it is likely to be a reflection event. The late November cold shot and first week of December developments likely have no connection to the SSW. Whether there would be the development/redevelopment or reinforcement of blocking was the wild card. Considering the nature of this event, it increasingly appears that non-stratospheric factors will play the predominant role.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This morning revealed an unwelcome, GEFS AO forecast. If it holds, it could have implications beyond the first week of December. The base case is a generally negative AO at least to start December. But the GEFS has grown more aggressive with the AO+ scenario, with the AO reaching/exceeding +1.000 near the end of the first week in December.

For now, things still remain on course for places like the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and central or northern New England in terms of cold an snow through at least the first 7-10 days of December. Severe cold still appears unlikely.

The question afterward concerns whether the pattern will break down near mid-month or late December. The AO+ development would argue for a faster breakdown. I will need to see more data on this, but the risk of a faster breakdown has increased further since yesterday. Let's see where the GEFS and EPS are in a few days. After all, it is November 24 and model skill is weak beyond 10-14 days.

What about the SSW? As @40/70 Benchmark@bluewave@snowman19 have noted on numerous occasions, it is likely to be a reflection event. The late November cold shot and first week of December developments likely have no connection to the SSW. Whether there would be the development/redevelopment or reinforcement of blocking was the wild card. Considering the nature of this event, it increasingly appears that non-stratospheric factors will play the predominant role.

 

Expect the hostile trend in the polar domain to continue for later in December.

[qg_omega]

What a disaster shaping up

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Expect the hostile trend in the polar domain to continue for later in December.

You are warmer than the majority of forecasts i have seen on other forums and social media ( hope you fail =) ).  The epic December calls by many look like it will fail but a good December is still there.  Need the mjo to get out of 7. Maybe we will have a snowy period around the holidays which would be nice.

[Krs4Lfe]

Yeah we've seen a big breakdown in what was going to be favorable for cold and snow. December is now looking quite mild for our area. Seems like the positive AO will link up with SER and keep us warmer than normal in December. That won't work for snowfall chances. Our best hope is that the cold and snow builds up to our west and north and cold can bleed down towards our area. But like I said yesterday, things don't look too active for much of CONUS for forseeable future. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The weeklies have been a huge failure.  They were the ones that showed alot of cold air. 

Remember how bad they were in 23-24? The 2-4 week period still has lot of work to do for more predictable models. There was a time in August when the weeklies had +5 around the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest for a 2-week period, and it ended up being like -5. 

Also, for all talk Strong Nino's get about having warm December's, you rarely hear about La Nina's and cold December's, but they do go hand-in-hand. But like I said a few days ago, when the -EPO ridge retrogrades and models want to significantly cool Alaska and NW Canada thereafter, that is a warmer pattern coming. 

[MJO812]

A better pattern still looks on track in December  . MJO going into 8. Delayed but not denied ?

[MJO812]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Remember how bad they were in 23-24? The 2-4 week period still has lot of work to do for more predictable models. There was a time in August when the weeklies had +5 around the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest for a 2-week period, and it ended up being -5. 

Also, for all talk Strong Nino's get about having warm December's, you rarely hear about La Nina's and cold December's, but they do go hand-in-hand. But like I said a few days ago, when the -EPO ridge retrogrades and models want to significantly cool Alaska and NW Canada thereafter, that is a warmer pattern coming. 

Weeklies should be run every week again instead of daily. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies should be run every week again instead of daily. 

CFS runs 4x a day, and sometimes it will have the whole US below at 12z then the whole US above at 18z. Running more helps tracking scores to improve for more data.. but 2-4 week models haven't proven much more accurate than seasonal models to this point. I personally like the 384hr map on the ensemble means, seeing what the NAO, PNA, AO patterns look like.. that is pretty accurate. There is a pretty big model drop off after Day 15. Maybe they will continue to upgrade the Euro ensembles, but they have had some big misses since coming into inception several years ago. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

18 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Yeah the past two fall seasons featured the Same problem. Very strange, cant be a good sign. It’s crazy how 2019 winter (which was seen as almost a dud at the time because NYC only had 20”, is actually better than almost all other winters we have seen in the past 7 years). Thinking this is probably the new normal. 

2020-21 is the only winter in NYC that even surpassed the 20-inch mark since 2018-19:

2019-2020	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.5	2.3	T	T	T	T	0.0	4.8
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10.5	2.1	26.0	T	0.0	0.0	0.0	38.6
2021-2022	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	0.2	15.3	2.0	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	17.9
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	T	2.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.3
2023-2024	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	T	2.3	5.2	T	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.5
2024-2025	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.8	3.0	7.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	12.9

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

A better pattern still looks on track in December  . MJO going into 8. Delayed but not denied ?

I mean if that MJO forecast verifies, it will be a weird Pacific H5 for what the MJO is. Something to watch to see if that happens: MJO amped in 7-8 and a -PNA/+AO pattern

[LakePaste25]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Remember how bad they were in 23-24? The 2-4 week period still has lot of work to do for more predictable models. There was a time in August when the weeklies had +5 around the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest for a 2-week period, and it ended up being like -5. 

Also, for all talk Strong Nino's get about having warm December's, you rarely hear about La Nina's and cold December's, but they do go hand-in-hand. But like I said a few days ago, when the -EPO ridge retrogrades and models want to significantly cool Alaska and NW Canada thereafter, that is a warmer pattern coming. 

yeah strong nino decembers can “bust cold” such as with 2009 blocking, while nina decembers can “bust warm” such as with 2021. with the new climate, the odds of course are always more favorable to go warm than cold. i don’t think this december ends up torching though, especially northern tier. i can see it going 1-2 above. 

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I mean if that MJO forecast verifies, it will be a weird Pacific H5 for what the MJO is. Something to watch to see if that happens: MJO amped in 7-8 and a -PNA/+AO pattern

I would argue that the models are underdoing the Pacific jet and + heights near the WC and AK given that kind of tropical forcing

unless the MJO can never get into 8, which I'm sure I'll be told

[stadiumwave]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

A better pattern still looks on track in December  . MJO going into 8. Delayed but not denied ?

 

Normal GEFS has it in phase 8 by DEC 6th now:

 

[stadiumwave]

JMA looks like it is going to be the earliest to phase 8

 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Normal GEFS has it in phase 8 by DEC 6th now:

 

 

[MJO812]

Models keep overestimating the ridge in the long range just to lessen it when the time gets closer. We are in a weak la Nina. The southeast ridge shouldn't be strong. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Remember how bad they were in 23-24? The 2-4 week period still has lot of work to do for more predictable models. There was a time in August when the weeklies had +5 around the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest for a 2-week period, and it ended up being like -5. 

Also, for all talk Strong Nino's get about having warm December's, you rarely hear about La Nina's and cold December's, but they do go hand-in-hand. But like I said a few days ago, when the -EPO ridge retrogrades and models want to significantly cool Alaska and NW Canada thereafter, that is a warmer pattern coming. 

Absolutely buy....that is the Pacific trough regime I expect to take hold around Xmas and through the first half of January that should flip to +TNH mid month.

[bncho]

31 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models keep overestimating the ridge in the long range just to lessen it when the time gets closer. We are in a weak la Nina. The southeast ridge shouldn't be strong. 

[MJO812]

Just now, bncho said:

Its the truth. Look how the models are getting colder again in the mid range. 

Truth hurts for some of you.

[MJO812]

Better PV press on the gfs for next week. Like I said , the models have been way too warm in the long range only to get cooler as time goes on.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12z GFS brough back the -EPO for early Dec

Nice High pressure location.. but this is just one run

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Better PV press on the gfs for next week. Like I said , the models have been way too warm in the long range only to get cooler as time goes on.

well i'll be damned. DC winter storm on December 3-4. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

well i'll be damned. DC winter storm on December 3-4. 

1 run but the gfs showed what a negative epo can do.