2025-2026 ENSO

[SnoSki14]

50 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Stupid post

Dude's a huge troll but strong RNA pattern will lead to trough out west and possible SE ridge out east. 

[jm1220]

47 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Dude's a huge troll but strong RNA pattern will lead to trough out west and possible SE ridge out east. 

Best we can hope for with a stout -PNA is an overrunning snow to rain type system here with a retreating high. Or a sheared to nothing squeeze play system. We need the PNA to cooperate at least a little. 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Best we can hope for with a stout -PNA is an overrunning snow to rain type system here with a retreating high. Or a sheared to nothing squeeze play system. We need the PNA to cooperate at least a little. 

No one should be expecting snow for the rest of this month. Its when December  hits when the pattern gets better. Weeklies show it nicely.  Alot of cold air to the north . 

Overrunning should be the theme

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

unbelievably awful ragebait

 

Seriously

Nothing is suggesting a warm December. 

[MJO812]

I dont know why some are worried about December. 

Weak Nina

 Easterly QBO 

- AAM

MJO into 8

SSW

What else can you ask for ?

[donsutherland1]

While I won't go overboard about December's prospects e.g., no 1983-type cold, an EPO-/WPO-/AO-/PNA- month wouldn't be the worst of outcomes. There should be opportunities for snowfall and at least some cold should periodically push into the East. I highly doubt we'll see a "torch" December.

[bncho]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

While I won't go overboard about December's prospects e.g., no 1983-type cold, an EPO-/WPO-/AO-/PNA- month wouldn't be the worst of outcomes. There should be opportunities for snowfall and at least some cold should periodically push into the East. I highly doubt we'll see a "torch" December.

I laughed out loud at this.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I dont know why some are worried about December. 

Weak Nina

 East based QBO 

- AAM

MJO into 8

SSW

What else can you ask for ?

 I hope you’re right but the MJO actually reaching phase 8 is far from certain. Dec MJO in phase 8 has been difficult to come by for 15 years. The only notable (3+ days long) Dec phase 8 since 2009 was in 2017! 2023’s 8 zipped through in just one day. Some of this lack of Dec phase 8 was bad timing where they occurred late Nov or early Jan. But there were four times that phase 8 seemed to be blocked and instead it detoured and stayed back in 7 or went around to 1.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I hope you’re right but the MJO actually reaching phase 8 is far from certain. Dec MJO in phase 8 has been difficult to come by for 15 years. The only notable (3+ days long) Dec phase 8 since 2009 was in 2017! 2023’s 8 zipped through in just one day. Some of this lack of Dec phase 8 was bad timing where they occurred late Nov or early Jan. But there were four times that phase 8 seemed to be blocked and instead it detoured and stayed back in 7 or around to 1.

Phase 7 isnt bad either

[Coach McGuirk]

2012-2013 is a good year as a model for 2025-2026. 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

2012-2013 is a good year as a model for 2025-2026. 

I see that being thrown around and also 2013-2014.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Phase 7 isnt bad either

The cold E US Dec phase 7 periods were mainly during weak to low end moderate amplitude phase 7s (including inside the circle, which your map includes). Instead, the extended GEFS and Euro are forecasting a strong phase 7, which rarely was cold. Using Baltimore as a midpoint for the E US, these were the coldest in phase 7:

1. -11: 12/16-20/2010 ph 7 near to just inside COD

 

2. -11: 12/17-19/2009 ph 7 just outside COD:

 

3. -7: 12/26-31/2001 ph 7 moderate: 

4. -7: 12/9-19/1995: this ph 7 was strongest that was cold…but this is the only exception that was almost as strong as the ext-EPS but still not nearly as strong as the ext-GEFS

 

5. -6: 12/4-9/1977 ph 7 (the cold one is well inside the COD, not the one that comes out later which wasn’t cold):

6. -6: 12/5-8/1989 ph 7 just outside to right on COD:

7. -6: 12/15-25/1981 ph 7 just outside to just inside COD:

8. -5: 12/9-11/2017 this is the ph 7 going into the COD (not the one further out 12/17-20, which was mild):

 

9. -5: 12/11-14/2000 ph 7 moderate

[Coach McGuirk]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I see that being thrown around and also 2013-2014.

That too, I remember when I got my cat from the SPCA it was snowing one of those years. 

[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The cold E US Dec phase 7 periods were mainly during weak to low end moderate amplitude phase 7s (including inside the circle, which your map includes). Instead, the extended GEFS and Euro are forecasting a mainly fairly strong phase 7, which more often than not hasn’t been cold. Using Baltimore as a midpoint for the E US, these were the coldest in phase 7:

1. -11: 12/16-20/2010 ph 7 near to just inside COD

 

2. -11: 12/17-19/2009 ph 7 just outside COD:

 

3. -7: 12/26-31/2001 ph 7 moderate: 

4. -7: 12/9-19/1995 ph 7 one of the strongest that was cold…but this is the only exception that was almost as strong as the ext-EPS but still not nearly as strong as the ext-GEFS

 

5. -6: 12/4-9/1977 ph 7 (the cold one is well inside the COD, not the one that comes out later which wasn’t cold):

6. -6: 12/5-8/1989 ph 7 just outside to right on COD:

7. -6: 12/15-25/1981 ph 7 just outside to just inside COD:

8. -5: 12/9-11/2017 this is the ph 7 going into the COD (not the one further out 12/17-20):

 

9. -5: 12/11-14/2000 ph 7 moderate

But, if you throw upstream blocking in there you would get the Central US Cold undercut into the East. Probably equivalent to low Ph 7 without it imo Larry. Maybe not into the SE east of the Apps and South of NC.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Coach McGuirk said:

That too, I remember when I got my cat from the SPCA it was snowing one of those years. 

That was a cold winter with alot of fluffy snow.

[Coach McGuirk]

Last year was great, 8.5 inch storm and a couple of of 2 inchers.  The previous two years were nothing.  

[snowman19]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

While I won't go overboard about December's prospects e.g., no 1983-type cold, an EPO-/WPO-/AO-/PNA- month wouldn't be the worst of outcomes. There should be opportunities for snowfall and at least some cold should periodically push into the East. I highly doubt we'll see a "torch" December.

The ensembles are starting to show more of an Aleutian/Bering Sea ridge setting up in early December as opposed to an Alaskan ridge. If correct, that’s going to allow a lot more -PNA/RNA. I know Ray expected this to happen for December….

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

The ensembles are starting to show more of an Aleutian/Bering Sea ridge setting up in early December as opposed to an Alaskan ridge. If correct, that’s going to allow a lot more -PNA/RNA. I know Ray expected this to happen for December….

Yes. A PNA- is one of my baseline assumptions for December. The combination of EPO-/WPO-/AO- with a PNA- isn't all that bad based on the composite values and the majority of dates in the clusters for such a setup. There should be some intrusions of cold air into the East with perhaps some snowfall prospects. I could see December finishing with 2"-4" monthly snowfall in the NYC area (much more in the Great Lakes Region, especially Detroit to Toronto). For now, I don't think a blockbuster snowy month is in order. I don't think we'll see anything close to December 2010-type cold.  I do believe that the EPO-/WPO- should thwart the possibility of a top 10 warmest December.

Given the timeframe involved, changes are still possible. 

[snowman19]

12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. A PNA- is one of my baseline assumptions for December. The combination of EPO-/WPO-/AO- with a PNA- isn't all that bad based on the composite values and the majority of dates in the clusters for such a setup. There should be some intrusions of cold air into the East with perhaps some snowfall prospects. I could see December finishing with 2"-4" monthly snowfall in the NYC area (much more in the Great Lakes Region, especially Detroit to Toronto). For now, I don't think a blockbuster snowy month is in order. I don't think we'll see anything close to December 2010-type cold.  I do believe that the EPO-/WPO- should thwart the possibility of a top 10 warmest December.

Given the timeframe involved, changes are still possible. 

Completely agree. I see the December, 1983 talk by some as being equally ridiculous….volcanic stratosphere from a VEI-5 tropical eruption the year before, +QBO, +PDO

[bluewave]

Most of us had a weaker 500 mb PNA this December than last year using different methods. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The ensembles are starting to show more of an Aleutian/Bering Sea ridge setting up in early December as opposed to an Alaskan ridge. If correct, that’s going to allow a lot more -PNA/RNA. I know Ray expected this to happen for December….

 I just looked up -ENSO winters with a -PNA in Dec to see how often it went to a +PNA in Jan. In what winters did this occur?

-1954-5: -0.52 to +0.40

-1962-3: -0.08 to +0.58

-1983-4: -0.31 to +0.97

-1984-5: -1.60 to +1.63

-1996-7: -1.23 to +0.63

-1998-9: -0.09 to +0.16

-2008-9: -1.41 to +0.61

-2010-11: -1.78 to +1.29

-2012-3: -1.01 to +0.55

-2013-4: -0.86 to +0.97

-2016-7: -0.35 to +0.28

-2021-2: -2.56 to +1.01

-2022-3: -0.66 to +0.22

 So, although it wasn’t common from 1954-5 through 1971-2, when only 2 of 9 (22%) switched, here’s something that just blew my mind:

-ALL 11 -ENSO -PNA Decs since 1983-4 switched to +PNA Jans (listed above)!

-These 11 averaged +0.76 in January!

-Now, check out the -ENSO Jan PNAs since 1983-4 that had a +PNA in Dec:

1) 1985-6 went from +1.39 to +0.97

2) 1988-9 went from +0.63 to -0.72

3) 1995-6 went from +0.92 to -0.02

4) 1999-00 went from +0.21 to -0.82

5) 2000-01 went from +1.23 to +1.51

6) 2001-2 went from +0.56 to -0.04

7) 2005-6 went from +1.38 to -0.43

8) 2007-8 went from +0.14 to -0.32

9) 2011-2 went from +0.36 to +0.60

10) 2017-8 went from +0.89 to +0.40

11) 2020-1 went from +1.58 to +0.19

12) 2024-5 went from +1.70 to +1.05

 -So, for these 12 -ENSO Decs since 1983-4 with a +PNA, only 50% also had a +PNA in Jan.

-So, since 1983-4, whereas only 50% of the 12 -ENSO Decs with a +PNA also had a Jan +PNA, 100% of the 11 -ENSO Decs with a -PNA in Dec went to a +PNA in Jan! Thus, having a -PNA in Dec during -ENSO since 1983-4 has, if anything, meant a big increase in the chance for a +PNA in Jan whether random or not! I didn’t know this til just now.

Link to monthly PNAs back to 1950:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table
 

@donsutherland1

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I just looked up -ENSO winters with a -PNA in Dec to see how often it went to a +PNA in Jan. In what winters did this occur?

-1954-5: -0.52 to +0.40

-1962-3: -0.08 to +0.58

-1983-4: -0.31 to +0.97

-1984-5: -1.60 to +1.63

-1996-7: -1.23 to +0.63

-1998-9: -0.09 to +0.16

-2008-9: -1.41 to +0.61

-2010-11: -1.78 to +1.29

-2012-3: -1.01 to +0.55

-2013-4: -0.86 to +0.97

-2016-7: -0.35 to +0.28

-2021-2: -2.56 to +1.01

-2022-3: -0.66 to +0.22

 So, although it wasn’t common from 1954-5 through 1971-2, when only 2 of 9 (22%) switched, here’s something that just blew my mind:

-ALL 11 -ENSO -PNA Decs since 1983-4 switched to +PNA Jans (listed above)!

-These 11 averaged +0.76 in January!

-Now, check out the -ENSO Jan PNAs since 1983-4 that had a +PNA in Dec:

1) 1985-6 went from +1.39 to +0.97

2) 1988-9 went from +0.63 to -0.72

3) 1995-6 went from +0.92 to -0.02

4) 1999-00 went from +0.21 to -0.82

5) 2000-01 went from +1.23 to +1.51

6) 2001-2 went from +0.56 to -0.04

7) 2005-6 went from +1.38 to -0.43

8) 2007-8 went from +0.14 to -0.32

9) 2011-2 went from +0.36 to +0.60

10) 2017-8 went from +0.89 to +0.40

11) 2020-1 went from +1.58 to +0.19

12) 2024-5 went from +1.70 to +1.05

 -So, for these 12 -ENSO Decs since 1983-4 with a +PNA, only 50% also had a +PNA in Jan.

-So, since 1983-4, whereas only 50% of the 12 -ENSO Decs with a +PNA also had a Jan +PNA, 100% of the 11 -ENSO Decs with a -PNA in Dec went to a +PNA in Jan! Thus, having a -PNA in Dec during -ENSO since 1983-4 has, if anything, meant a big increase in the chance for a +PNA in Jan whether random or not! I didn’t know this til just now.

Link to monthly PNAs back to 1950:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table
 

@donsutherland1

The 2011-12 winter had a +PNA for both December and January…that’s a surprise. I thought that was a predominant -PNA winter

[GaWx]

Today’s 2 week GEFS and EPS showed slight improvement vs yesterday regarding progression when comparing the same days into phase 7:

1. GEFS:

Yesterday’s GEFS:

 

Today’s GEFS:

 

2. EPS:

Yesterday’s EPS:

Today’s EPS:

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The 2011-12 winter had a +PNA for both December and January…that’s a surprise. I thought that was a predominant -PNA winter

01-02 was largely positive too.  The problem was more just a terrible Pacific or AK pattern in both winters than it was the PNA.  The NAO/AO were also largely positive except late December 01

[SnowGoose69]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The ensembles are starting to show more of an Aleutian/Bering Sea ridge setting up in early December as opposed to an Alaskan ridge. If correct, that’s going to allow a lot more -PNA/RNA. I know Ray expected this to happen for December….

Yeah that ridge is way too far west on the 06z GEFS and 00z EPS/GEPS.  The GEPS has what seems like maybe a broader PV that is more south which is why its not as bad.  The SER is likely underdone if the EPO ridge is going to be that far west

[MJO812]

50 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Today’s 2 week GEFS and EPS showed slight improvement vs yesterday regarding progression when comparing the same days into phase 7:

1. GEFS:

Yesterday’s GEFS:

 

Today’s GEFS:

 

2. EPS:

Yesterday’s EPS:

Today’s EPS:

Its only November. I dont know why people are worried about whats coming next month . This month was always supposed to be mild.