2025-2026 ENSO

[SnoSki14]

50 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Stupid post

Dude's a huge troll but strong RNA pattern will lead to trough out west and possible SE ridge out east. 

[jm1220]

47 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Dude's a huge troll but strong RNA pattern will lead to trough out west and possible SE ridge out east. 

Best we can hope for with a stout -PNA is an overrunning snow to rain type system here with a retreating high. Or a sheared to nothing squeeze play system. We need the PNA to cooperate at least a little. 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Best we can hope for with a stout -PNA is an overrunning snow to rain type system here with a retreating high. Or a sheared to nothing squeeze play system. We need the PNA to cooperate at least a little. 

No one should be expecting snow for the rest of this month. Its when December  hits when the pattern gets better. Weeklies show it nicely.  Alot of cold air to the north . 

Overrunning should be the theme

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

unbelievably awful ragebait

 

Seriously

Nothing is suggesting a warm December. 

[MJO812]

I dont know why some are worried about December. 

Weak Nina

 Easterly QBO 

- AAM

MJO into 8

SSW

What else can you ask for ?

[donsutherland1]

While I won't go overboard about December's prospects e.g., no 1983-type cold, an EPO-/WPO-/AO-/PNA- month wouldn't be the worst of outcomes. There should be opportunities for snowfall and at least some cold should periodically push into the East. I highly doubt we'll see a "torch" December.

[bncho]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

While I won't go overboard about December's prospects e.g., no 1983-type cold, an EPO-/WPO-/AO-/PNA- month wouldn't be the worst of outcomes. There should be opportunities for snowfall and at least some cold should periodically push into the East. I highly doubt we'll see a "torch" December.

I laughed out loud at this.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I dont know why some are worried about December. 

Weak Nina

 East based QBO 

- AAM

MJO into 8

SSW

What else can you ask for ?

 I hope you’re right but the MJO actually reaching phase 8 is far from certain. Dec MJO in phase 8 has been difficult to come by for 15 years. The only notable (3+ days long) Dec phase 8 since 2009 was in 2017! 2023’s 8 zipped through in just one day. Some of this lack of Dec phase 8 was bad timing where they occurred late Nov or early Jan. But there were four times that phase 8 seemed to be blocked and instead it detoured and stayed back in 7 or went around to 1.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I hope you’re right but the MJO actually reaching phase 8 is far from certain. Dec MJO in phase 8 has been difficult to come by for 15 years. The only notable (3+ days long) Dec phase 8 since 2009 was in 2017! 2023’s 8 zipped through in just one day. Some of this lack of Dec phase 8 was bad timing where they occurred late Nov or early Jan. But there were four times that phase 8 seemed to be blocked and instead it detoured and stayed back in 7 or around to 1.

Phase 7 isnt bad either

[Coach McGuirk]

2012-2013 is a good year as a model for 2025-2026. 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

2012-2013 is a good year as a model for 2025-2026. 

I see that being thrown around and also 2013-2014.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Phase 7 isnt bad either

The cold E US Dec phase 7 periods were mainly during weak to low end moderate amplitude phase 7s (including inside the circle, which your map includes). Instead, the extended GEFS and Euro are forecasting a strong phase 7, which rarely was cold. Using Baltimore as a midpoint for the E US, these were the coldest in phase 7:

1. -11: 12/16-20/2010 ph 7 near to just inside COD

 

2. -11: 12/17-19/2009 ph 7 just outside COD:

 

3. -7: 12/26-31/2001 ph 7 moderate: 

4. -7: 12/9-19/1995: this ph 7 was strongest that was cold…but this is the only exception that was almost as strong as the ext-EPS but still not nearly as strong as the ext-GEFS

 

5. -6: 12/4-9/1977 ph 7 (the cold one is well inside the COD, not the one that comes out later which wasn’t cold):

6. -6: 12/5-8/1989 ph 7 just outside to right on COD:

7. -6: 12/15-25/1981 ph 7 just outside to just inside COD:

8. -5: 12/9-11/2017 this is the ph 7 going into the COD (not the one further out 12/17-20):

 

9. -5: 12/11-14/2000 ph 7 moderate

[Coach McGuirk]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I see that being thrown around and also 2013-2014.

That too, I remember when I got my cat from the SPCA it was snowing one of those years. 

[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The cold E US Dec phase 7 periods were mainly during weak to low end moderate amplitude phase 7s (including inside the circle, which your map includes). Instead, the extended GEFS and Euro are forecasting a mainly fairly strong phase 7, which more often than not hasn’t been cold. Using Baltimore as a midpoint for the E US, these were the coldest in phase 7:

1. -11: 12/16-20/2010 ph 7 near to just inside COD

 

2. -11: 12/17-19/2009 ph 7 just outside COD:

 

3. -7: 12/26-31/2001 ph 7 moderate: 

4. -7: 12/9-19/1995 ph 7 one of the strongest that was cold…but this is the only exception that was almost as strong as the ext-EPS but still not nearly as strong as the ext-GEFS

 

5. -6: 12/4-9/1977 ph 7 (the cold one is well inside the COD, not the one that comes out later which wasn’t cold):

6. -6: 12/5-8/1989 ph 7 just outside to right on COD:

7. -6: 12/15-25/1981 ph 7 just outside to just inside COD:

8. -5: 12/9-11/2017 this is the ph 7 going into the COD (not the one further out 12/17-20):

 

9. -5: 12/11-14/2000 ph 7 moderate

But, if you throw upstream blocking in there you would get the Central US Cold undercut into the East. Probably equivalent to low Ph 7 without it imo Larry. Maybe not into the SE east of the Apps and South of NC.