2025-2026 ENSO

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

135.5 Final ACE

Matches the pattern of a step-down following the other 160+ ACE years like we had in 2024.

While we have been in a new RI and Cat 5 hurricane era last decade, we haven’t been able to replicate the 2003-2005 high ACE 3 years in a row.

But it also means that we haven’t had and really low ACE years like 2013 and 2014. Plus we have been getting the activity lulls from late August into early September before very strong late seasons.

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

30-day is the highest since December 2022! It had actually gone 31 straight months without passing +10, now it's up to +15. Between that, the Oct-Nov N. Hemisphere 500mb pattern, and now a -3c pocket developing in the ENSO subsurface.. you can make a case for a La Nina presence this Winter. I'm curious to see how it goes with the fact that 21 of the last 29 months have been +PNA (CPC), and what happens there going forward. 

Soaring +SOI, cooling subsurface (-3C) and surface SSTs, constructive interference with the -IOD/-PDO and the continued enhanced trades/EWBs in the CPAC leads me to believe this event doesn’t peak until either the tail end of this month or more likely early-mid December. As I said yesterday….a very well coupled canonical La Niña system is in place

[GaWx]

 Here’s today’s GEFS MJO forecast:

 

EPS:

——————-

Here are the 4 closest Niña Nov MJO analogs:

2007:

1998:


1995:

1985:

——————

Now here are the 4 honorable mentions:

2022:

2008:

1989:

 

1983:

@snowman19

[snowman19]

The extremely persistent -AAM continues….it simply doesn’t get anymore “La Niña” than we are now….

[michsnowfreak]

12 hours ago, FPizz said:

I was more thinking 3 days ago vs yesterday vs today.  I dont have access, so do they change this much daily or was this a pretty big one day jump?

They jump a lot. And you now have access 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202511070000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202511170000

 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A[]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Extended (42 days)"%2C"Sub-seasonal"]}

[michsnowfreak]

11 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

NMME page is pure ugly if you like winter. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/monanom.shtml

I would expect nothing less from NMME. if i recall, it was even warmer last winter, and we know how that worked out.

[donsutherland1]

24 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I would expect nothing less from NMME. if i recall, it was even warmer last winter, and we know how that worked out.

And for context: Low skill for much of the CONUS.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

While we have been in a new RI and Cat 5 hurricane era last decade, we haven’t been able to replicate the 2003-2005 high ACE 3 years in a row.

The 2003-05 period is going to be nearly impossible to replicate, in terms of ACE. We had the one-year ACE (2005), two-year ACE (2004-05), and 3-year ACE (2003-05) records set. Also, most Cat 5 storms in one year (2005) and 5 years (2003-07), and until it was tied these last few years, the 2-year, 3-year, and 4-year Cat 5 records. (The 5-year record can be tied next year with one, and broken with 2.)

I'd even argue that the record stretch began in 1998, maybe even 1995. We had six 175+ ACE seasons in 11 years from 1995-2005. In the 20 years since, we've only had 2 (2017 and 2020).

[GaWx]

 Per model consensus progs:

-Nov ‘25 is likely headed toward a strong -NAO Niña Nov like that of 2010, 2000, 1995, 1983, 1973, 1955, and 1950.

-Of those: all but 1973 had BN temp. in Dec at NYC with 4 of 7 having a MB Dec including the 1st 3 on the list. Though on avg for all winters Feb has been 3 F colder than Dec, the Febs for these 7 averaged 2.4 F warmer than the Decs.

-Of these: 2010, 1973, and 1955 also had a -NAO Oct like 2025.

-Of those, 1995 had a similar Nov MJO.

-Of those: 2010, 1995, and 1955 had a sub -0.25 NAO winter. All 3 of those had a very cold Dec. But of those 3, only 1955 had active sunspots fwiw.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

[snowman19]

34 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Per model consensus progs:

-Nov ‘25 is likely headed toward a strong -NAO Niña Nov like that of 2010, 2000, 1995, 1983, 1973, 1955, and 1950.

-Of those: all but 1973 had BN temp. in Dec at NYC with 4 of 7 having a MB Dec including the last 3 on the list. Though on avg for all winters Feb has been 3 F colder than Dec, the Febs for these 7 averaged 2.4 F warmer than the Decs.

-Of these: 2010, 1973, and 1955 also had a -NAO Oct like 2025.

-Of those, 1995 had a similar Nov MJO.

-Of those: 2010, 1995, and 1955 had a sub -0.25 NAO winter. All 3 of those had a very cold Dec. But of those 3, only 1955 had active sunspots fwiw.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

You can take 1983 off the list. That was a volcanic winter/volcanic stratosphere. (El Chichón; VEI-5 eruption in 1982)

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

They jump a lot. And you now have access 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202511070000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202511170000

 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A[]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Extended (42 days)"%2C"Sub-seasonal"]}

Thanks!  Now to remember to look daily.....

[George001]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Per model consensus progs:

-Nov ‘25 is likely headed toward a strong -NAO Niña Nov like that of 2010, 2000, 1995, 1983, 1973, 1955, and 1950.

-Of those: all but 1973 had BN temp. in Dec at NYC with 4 of 7 having a MB Dec including the last 3 on the list. Though on avg for all winters Feb has been 3 F colder than Dec, the Febs for these 7 averaged 2.4 F warmer than the Decs.

-Of these: 2010, 1973, and 1955 also had a -NAO Oct like 2025.

-Of those, 1995 had a similar Nov MJO.

-Of those: 2010, 1995, and 1955 had a sub -0.25 NAO winter. All 3 of those had a very cold Dec. But of those 3, only 1955 had active sunspots fwiw.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

There are some really damn good winters in that list

[GaWx]

 Today’s Euro 10 mb got slightly weaker and I’d call it 2nd best only barely behind 3 days ago (depends on criteria): once again it’s showing a real threat of earliest SSWE since 1968!

 

3 days ago

 

1 year ago: near avg/much stronger than ‘25:

[PhiEaglesfan712]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

You can take 1983 off the list. That was a volcanic winter/volcanic stratosphere. (El Chichón; VEI-5 eruption in 1982)

83 is also a +PDO, and so was 95. They can be thrown out.

1955, 1973, and 2010 were strong la ninas. They can be thrown out as well.

1950 and 2000 are the only analogs that make sense on that list.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

83 is also a +PDO, and so was 95. They can be thrown out.

1955, 1973, and 2010 were strong la ninas. They can be thrown out as well.

1950 and 2000 are the only analogs that make sense on that list.

 Also on 2000’s side is that it had a very weak SPV in late Nov (though not a reversal) and active sunspots. If the MJO were to keep going and get into 7/8/1/2/3 in Dec, that would also be like 2000.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

30-day is the highest since December 2022! It had actually gone 31 straight months without passing +10, now it's up to +15. Between that, the Oct-Nov N. Hemisphere 500mb pattern, and now a -3c pocket developing in the ENSO subsurface.. you can make a case for a La Nina presence this Winter. I'm curious to see how it goes with the fact that 21 of the last 29 months have been +PNA (CPC), and what happens there going forward. 

No surprise to me....I was saying I wasn't at all considering La Niña peaking early when you commented on the subsurface warmth last month. Same thing happened over the summer, and in 2008....which peaked LATE.

[michsnowfreak]

8 hours ago, FPizz said:

Thanks!  Now to remember to look daily.....

Todays weeklies are colder than yesterday starting December 1st. They oscillate often. But so far no warm signal at all in December.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I putting the finishing touches on my stuff....just about done. If not this weekend, Monday,

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

83 is also a +PDO, and so was 95. They can be thrown out.

1955, 1973, and 2010 were strong la ninas. They can be thrown out as well.

1950 and 2000 are the only analogs that make sense on that list.

1995 and 2010 were also solar minimums

[Mercurial]

On 11/7/2025 at 9:40 AM, snowman19 said:

One thing is for sure, this La Niña is and has been exactly mimicking a classic canonical La Niña pattern to a tee. I see absolutely no reason to think it’s going to deviate at all from such in the coming months

 

I'm nervous.  I want snow right now.  lol.  We need a good base for snowmobiling, DJF be damned.

[bluewave]

We’ll see if this can trigger a strong enough wave reflection to lead to more of a -WPO -EPO from late November into early December.

Then the main question is will it be able to weaken the Pacific Jet enough. Last December we saw how the stronger -EPO didn’t really weaken the jet enough so we got a mid to late December +EPO reversal.

Remember none of the models got this +EPO reversal later in December from early in December. So we’ll just have to monitor the Pacific Jet once we actually get into December.

Plus we have seen warm ups every December since 2011 from the 17th to 25th that most of the long range models missed. Even during colder starts to the month.
 

 

[snowman19]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We’ll see if this can trigger a strong enough wave reflection to lead to more of a -WPO -EPO from late November into early December.

Then the main question is will it be able to weaken the Pacific Jet enough. Last December we saw how the stronger -EPO didn’t really weaken the jet enough so we got a mid to late December +EPO reversal.

Remember none of the models got this +EPO reversal later in December from early in December. So we’ll just have to monitor the Pacific Jet once we actually get into December.

Plus we have seen warm ups every December since 2011 from the 17th to 25th that most of the long range models missed. Even during colder starts to the month.
 

 

The models were real bad in the long range with the MJO last December. They kept showing an amplified MJO wave going 8-1-2 which obviously didn’t happen

[donsutherland1]

On 11/6/2025 at 9:24 AM, GaWx said:

Hey Don,

 Thanks for clarifying.
 The 1+2 anomalies are found at this ERSST monthlies link that has the four Nino anomalies (warning: these are all based on 1991-2020 anomalies rather than being based on moving base periods):

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

 

OT: My flashdrive that contained the ENSO data became unreadable today. Fortunately, I have a backup that is reasonably up-to-date. Pre-device failure might have led to a corruption of the data e.g., the wrong ENSO values for some of the cases referenced previously in this discussion. 

In the meantime, it looks like Savannah could see its earliest first freeze since 2010.

[George001]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

1995 and 2010 were also solar minimums

I’m tossing 95 but not 10. 

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m tossing 95 but not 10. 

I mean @PhiEaglesfan712 has a point with that 2010 Niña being much stronger. That aside, back in 2010 when HM was still active on here, he perfectly called the massive -NAO/-AO blocking more than a month before it even happened. He blamed it directly on the solar minimum with very low geomag that was in place, he said the blocking and stratospheric/tropospheric coupling would not have developed without it…..

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

OT: My flashdrive that contained the ENSO data became unreadable today. Fortunately, I have a backup that is reasonably up-to-date. Pre-device failure might have led to a corruption of the data e.g., the wrong ENSO values for some of the cases referenced previously in this discussion. 

In the meantime, it looks like Savannah could see its earliest first freeze since 2010.

 Indeed, Don! The current and recent KCHS NWS forecasts for KSAV have been for 30 on 11/11 in a windy freeze. If that were to verify, it would be the earliest 30 or colder since way back in 1976! However, latest and recent model consensus is suggesting that 30 is on the low end (Icon). ICON actually warmed some from 27s on Sat runs.

 Latest ICON/GFS/CMC/Euro/UKMET (as of 6Z/0Z 11/9 runs) have 30/32/33/33/34. If this were a radiational cooling night, I’d likely favor the low end per slight warm bias of consensus. But with it being windy, I’m currently thinking near the model avg of 32. However, if the model consensus were to cool, I’d adjust colder.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The models were real bad in the long range with the MJO last December. They kept showing an amplified MJO wave going 8-1-2 which obviously didn’t happen

Snowman,

 Please clarify when you say models were showing an amplified 8-1-2 MJO last Dec:

-What were the approximate dates of model runs you are referring to? And which models?
 

-For around what dates are you saying these runs projected an amplified 8-1-2?

(Aside: I generally concentrate on following only the GEFS/EPS and even they aren’t reliable. I describe them as the least unreliable with GEFS being better than EPS, especially Maritime/W Pac. Lately they’ve been too fast in their progs through phase 6 into 7 and with EPS not having enough amplitude, a common problem of it in those regions.)

 

[George001]

35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I mean @PhiEaglesfan712 has a point with that 2010 Niña being much stronger. That aside, back in 2010 when HM was still active on here, he perfectly called the massive -NAO/-AO blocking more than a month before it even happened. He blamed it directly on the solar minimum with very low geomag that was in place, he said the blocking and stratospheric/tropospheric coupling would not have developed without it…..

Yeah it’s a different way of getting there time around because geomag activity is high, not low like it was in 2010. It is my understanding that the expected polar vortex intrusion is being driven by the -QBO (2010 was +QBO) and low North Atlantic sea ice instead. The main reason I like 2010 as an analog though is I see similar potential for the -NAO to amplify the La Niña pattern, leading to a stormy and snowy pattern for northern areas (miller B storm track).

[snowman19]

33 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Snowman,

 Please clarify when you say models were showing an amplified 8-1-2 MJO last Dec:

-What were the approximate dates of model runs you are referring to? And which models?
 

-For around what dates are you saying these runs projected an amplified 8-1-2?

(Aside: I generally concentrate on following only the GEFS/EPS and even they aren’t reliable. I describe them as the least unreliable with GEFS being better than EPS, especially Maritime/W Pac. Lately they’ve been too fast in their progs through phase 6 into 7 and with EPS not having enough amplitude, a common problem of it in those regions.)

 

It’s possible I’m mistaken? But I thought that happened last December? Maybe it was the year before?

[snowman19]

39 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah it’s a different way of getting there time around because geomag activity is high, not low like it was in 2010. It is my understanding that the expected polar vortex intrusion is being driven by the -QBO (2010 was +QBO) and low North Atlantic sea ice instead. The main reason I like 2010 as an analog though is I see similar potential for the -NAO to amplify the La Niña pattern, leading to a stormy and snowy pattern for northern areas (miller B storm track).

True, that’s another difference…+QBO back in 2010