2025-2026 ENSO

[anthonymm]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Quite possible with a La Nina but there are other factors to consider. 

That like never happens. If the December is snowy in nyc and it's a nina, then the rest of the winter will be snowy too. It seems extraordinarily far fetched that we get a good December followed by a crap rest of the winter. More likely we just get a crap December and of course crap rest of the season.

[rclab]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have already asked Santa for some pro winter posts from @snowman19for Christmas....he has his work cut out for him.

Anything is possible in our Forums. Stay well and hopeful. As always ….

 

[GaWx]

 If a major SSW actually occurs late Nov or early Dec, that rather strong correlation to cold in the E US following a lag period would, alone, suggest a good bit better than average chance at a cold last half of Dec and first half of January in the E US.

[George001]

4 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Yea the "fast start to winter, then it dies in January" pretty clearly contradicts the data we have about snowy nina decembers for nyc translating to above normal for the rest of the season.. Surprised no one has pointed that out.

Agree. If we do get a fast start to winter I would expect that to not only continue into January, but would expect January to be the snowiest month of the winter. The strat stuff actually lines up with January better than December anyways when taking into account the lag period. 

[anthonymm]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

Agree. If we do get a fast start to winter I would expect that to not only continue into January, but would expect January to be the snowiest month of the winter. The strat stuff actually lines up with January better than December anyways when taking into account the lag period. 

Yup, forgot who pointed that out (Don?), but the 4" stat in central park has like a 95+ % success rate.

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Yea the "fast start to winter, then it dies in January" pretty clearly contradicts the data we have about snowy nina decembers for nyc translating to above normal for the rest of the season.. Surprised no one has pointed that out.

The snowy December years often have a “round 2” later in the winter like 2017-18 where the NYC area cashes in again and ends above normal. Winters where Dec doesn’t produce often have the raging Pacific jet or other unfavorable driving factor that never goes away. 2010-11 was one Nina where we really had a 6 week winter from Christmas to 2/1 and that was it, but it was among the most epic in history.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 If a major SSW actually occurs late Nov or early Dec, that rather strong correlation to cold in the E US following a lag period would, alone, suggest a good bit better than average chance at a cold last half of Dec and first half of January in the E US.

We haven’t had much luck with early SSWs since the late 1980s following December 2001, 1998, and 1987.

https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html

[PhiEaglesfan712]

18 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Yea the "fast start to winter, then it dies in January" pretty clearly contradicts the data we have about snowy nina decembers for nyc translating to above normal for the rest of the season.. Surprised no one has pointed that out.

The only "fast starts to winter, then died in January" were 89-90 and 07-08.

Technically, you could argue 05-06 and 20-21, but those had a blockbuster return in February.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The only "fast starts to winter, then died in January" were 89-90 and 07-08.

Technically, you could argue 05-06 and 20-21, but those had a blockbuster return in February.

February 06 was largely luck...pattern was awful. March 2006 was actually better, but ended up cold and dry.

[GaWx]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We haven’t had much luck with early SSWs as was the case since the late 1980s following December 2001, 1998, and 1987.

https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html

-2001: agreed

-1998: had a 3 week long cold period last week of Dec to midpoint of Jan (example NYC had 7 F BN 12/23-1/14)

-1987: cold last few days of Dec through midpoint of Jan (example NYC had a 11 F BN 12/28-1/15)

 So, I don’t agree with your statement because two out of three early major SSWs since the late 1980s had the cold for a 2.5-3 week period after a lag, which included a cold first half of Jan.

 

[kazimirkai]

20 hours ago, Newman said:

https://nowcastjobs.com/

Filter by any of the industries listed, this site is made specific for the atmospheric sciences/meteorology

Thanks! This will come in handy

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

-2001: agreed

-1998: had a 3 week long cold period last week of Dec to midpoint of Jan

-1987: cold last few days of Dec through midpoint of Jan

 So, I don’t agree with your statement because two out of three early major SSWs since the late 1980s had the cold for a 2.5-3 week period after a lag, which included a cold first half of Jan.

 

I was talking mostly about snowfall which was lackluster those seasons following the SSWs. There wasn’t any cold to speak of in my area following the December 1998 event. While we did get some cold for around 10 days in January 1988, it wasn’t nearly as the cold as major January 1980s Arctic outbreaks were. 2001-2002  was essentially a year without a winter. 

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Yea the "fast start to winter, then it dies in January" pretty clearly contradicts the data we have about snowy nina decembers for nyc translating to above normal for the rest of the season.. Surprised no one has pointed that out.

Nothing is cast in stone right now.  Here are overall December cases:

For recent La Niña events (1980-2025), December snowfall of 6" or above is more conducive to a snowy winter. Frequency of 30" or more for January-April:

December < 4": 16.7%

December 4" or above: 25.0%

December 6" or above: 28.6%

December 8" or above: 40.0%

[GaWx]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I was talking mostly about snowfall which was lackluster those seasons following the SSWs. There wasn’t any cold to speak of in my area following the December 1998 event. While we did get some cold for around 10 days in January 1988, it wasn’t nearly as the cold as major January 1980s Arctic outbreaks were. 2001-2002  was essentially a year without a winter. 

Hey Chris,

 But I wasn’t talking about snow. I’ve been talking only about temperatures in the E US as a whole. I didn't mention snowfall/wintry precip in that post because the correlation is to cold. Wintry precip is too hit and miss depending on one’s area as you know.
 

 By the way, however, all 3 of the early season SSWs since 1987 actually had major winter storms in a good portion of the E US following a lag period:

Examples:

-2002: Early Jan major snow SE US to Richmond including biggest ATL snow since 3/1993
-1998-9: Late Dec-first half Jan gave Baltimore 7” snow and a good portion of VA into the SE 2 major icestorms 
-1988: 10-12” snow DC-Baltimore to SE US early Jan

 

 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Hey Chris,

 But I wasn’t talking about snow. I’ve been talking only about temperatures in the E US as a whole. I didn't mention snowfall/wintry precip in that post because the correlation is to cold. Wintry precip is too hit and miss depending on one’s area as you know.
 

 By the way, however, all 3 of the early season SSWs since 1987 actually had major winter storms in a good portion of the E US following a lag period:

Examples:

-2002: Early Jan major snow SE US to Richmond
-1998-9: Late Dec-first half Jan gave Baltimore 7” snow and a good portion of VA into the SE 2 major icestorms 
-1988: 10-12” snow DC-Baltimore to SE US early Jan

 

 

The general rule around NYC Metro following SSWs that occur during any month of winter is that the snowfall is directly proportional to the amount that fell before the SSW occurred. So a winter with very little snowfall prior to the SSW usually won’t have a very snowy outcome after. Conversely, a snowy pattern before the SSW will usually become enhanced following the event. 

[snowman19]

I have no issue with that...totally reasonable take.

I’m not saying that we won’t see +PNA intervals, I’m just doubting that they are very frequent/long in duration. We both agree that we won’t see a 2022-23 style nuclear RNA. My reasoning: 2nd year Niña and the continued North PAC cooling since September 1st. Guess we’ll see what happens soon

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The general rule around NYC Metro following SSWs that occur during any month of winter is that the snowfall is directly proportional to the amount that fell before the SSW occurred. So a winter with very little snowfall prior to the SSW usually won’t have a very snowy outcome after. Conversely, a snowy pattern before the SSW will usually become enhanced following the event. 

That’s interesting, Chris! Regardless, this NYC snowfall rule before/after an SSW is tangential to the significant correlation of major SSW to several weeks of cold following a lag period in the E US as a whole.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’m not saying that we won’t see +PNA intervals, I’m just doubting that they are very frequent/long in duration. We both agree that we won’t see a 2022-23 style nuclear RNA. My reasoning: 2nd year Niña and the continued North PAC cooling since September 1st. Guess we’ll see what happens soon

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Odds are we won't see consecutive strongly +PNA la Nina seasons....end of story.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

That’s interesting, Chris! Regardless, this NYC snowfall rule before/after an SSW is tangential to the significant correlation of major SSW to several weeks of cold following a lag period in the E US as a whole.

The key to NYC and nearby areas getting over 4” in December will continue to come down to the storm track. All the La Ninas in the last 30 years to go 4”+ in December had at least one snowy event with a stronger low tracking out near the benchmark.

So we would want to start experiencing some deviation of this persistent Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm track heading into December. But we haven’t had a storm track like this since January 2022.

This fall so far has featured mostly Great Lakes cutters and huggers. The one coastal we got back in October was two weaker lows instead of one deep and consolidated low near the Benchmark. The Pacific Jet which has lead to this persistent pattern has been as strong as ever since October 1st.

Maybe with some luck we can find a way to change up this storm track a bit at some point this winter or in coming winters. Not exactly sure what the catalyst for change would be since even an MJO 8 in March 2023 couldn’t even briefly shift the pattern. Very challenging with that record gradient between the Siberian cold and record WPAC SST warmth driving such a strong Pacific Jet.

[SnowGoose69]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I guess some people just looked at the -AO/-NAO part of Eric’s post and looked no further. He has some real ugly analog years in there….1988, 1999, 2011….

See:

Thankfully due to La Nina strength we can probably toss both 88 and 99.  I think both those years also had W QBOs and W or CNTRL based La Ninas