2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@snowman19, it's a weak La Nina...nothing is supportive of anything stronger. Zero.. I agree that ultimately it will get close to the moderate threshold, but not right now.

At absolutely no point did I ever say it wouldn’t be a weak La Niña. Never ever, not once. However, it is much, much better coupled than last year at this time 

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Is the PDO weaker negative than last year at this time yes. But the La Niña is much better established this time around than last year, which was a late bloomer Niña…cooler Nino region SSTs, EWBs/enhanced trades started earlier this year,  the eastern PAC (GOA, along the west coast of NA and down to Baja) is cooler and there is a very pronounced -PMM (very supportive of Nina) whereas last year we had a +PMM at this time. Also, much deeper and well established +SOI and a deeply negative AAM (Nina). Would love to see what the MEI is but that doesn’t update anymore

@GaWx Edit: The deeply negative -IOD speaks for itself as far as being very supportive of La Niña/constructive interference 

If you don't wish to post photos it is fine, I do wish you would at least reference the sites so that people could see what you are mentioning is all. 

[GaWx]

  Here’s a WxBell CFS control Jan map (originally posted today by an unknown person, who added his own comments) that was reposted today at another BB by someone who got this in his FB feed (i.e., this is NOT a WxBell post..it is someone else posting a WxBell map with his own commentary):

 Here was my response:

 This is a control run (18Z of yesterday) of the WxBell CFS being forecasted out 2 months. Even calling this map less than worthless is being kind.

 Keep in mind that these are in C, not F. So, it gives the majority of the middle 1/3 of the US a record obliterating cold Jan.

 To show how silly this run is, it has Chicago at an obliterating alltime record breaking cold Jan of 14C/25F BN, which is -1F! The coldest Jan (and any month for that matter) on record back to 1873 is +10.1F (1977). So, this CFS control run is forecasting Chicago to have a Jan that is 11F colder than any month they’ve had during the last 153 years!

 Now here’s the very next CFS control run, the 0Z 11/2 run:

 Instead of mid-America having a record obliterating cold Jan, it has much warmer than normal in much of the same area! It has Chicago only 3 F AN because the WxBell CFS maps always show a funky cold spot centered on Lake Michigan (funky WxBell CFS algos is another issue for another time that I’ve posted about before). So, it has Chicago at an AN +27F vs -1F on the prior run or 28F warmer lmao!

@donsutherland1

[donsutherland1]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

  Here’s a WxBell CFS control Jan map (originally posted today by an unknown person, who added his own comments) that was reposted today at another BB by someone who got this in his FB feed (i.e., this is NOT a WxBell post..it is someone else posting a WxBell map with his own commentary):

 Here was my response:

 This is a control run (18Z of yesterday) of the WxBell CFS being forecasted out 2 months. Even calling this map less than worthless is being kind.

 Keep in mind that these are in C, not F. So, it gives the majority of the middle 1/3 of the US a record obliterating cold Jan.

 To show how silly this run is, it has Chicago at an obliterating alltime record breaking cold Jan of 14C/25F BN, which is -1F! The coldest Jan (and any month for that matter) on record back to 1873 is +10.1F (1977). So, this CFS control run is forecasting Chicago to have a Jan that is 11F colder than any month they’ve had during the last 153 years!

 Now here’s the very next CFS control run, the 0Z 11/2 run:

 Instead of mid-America having a record obliterating cold Jan, it has much warmer than normal in much of the same area! It has Chicago only 3 F AN because the WxBell CFS maps always show a funky cold spot centered on Lake Michigan (funky WxBell CFS algos is another issue for another time that I’ve posted about before). So, it has Chicago at an AN +27F vs -1F on the prior run or 28F warmer lmao!

@donsutherland1

I agree with your post. IMO, those maps should not be published on any credible site. Such wild swings and extremes on a run-to-run basis are not too surprising. That's why NCEP blends multiple cycles. 

[DarkSharkWX]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm glad that you clarified exactly what you were insinuating with these nebulous -IOD inferences. I am going to post my outlook either next weekend or more likely early the week of Nov 10th and will look into this a great deal since ENSO in and of itself is pretty clear. It seems like you are implying that this weak east-central based event will act like a Modoki event because of the -IOD? I don't have an issue with that in a vacuum, since other factors easily overwhelm the Modoki index when ENSO is weak, however, if you look back at 2008, which you have compared this -IOD event to on several occasions, that did not happen. And that event actual was Modoki.  It made it to phase 7 in December, all the way around in January and even kissed phase 8 again briefly in February before hitting phase 8 again at high amplitude in March.

2007-08 or 2008-09?

it's very hard to isolate the effect of the -IOD given covariability between IOD and ENSO, but webb tried to do so (for weak to mdt -ENSO using 20cr) and the results were interesting; hints of -NAO/+PNA in early winter then a snap to +NAO and strong PV in feb, sort of exaggerating canonical nina progression(also similar to -QBO/high solar -ENSO)

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1984271391596916942

[Stormchaserchuck1]

October SOI came in at +12.. which was the highest monthly reading since December 2022! Here's how that rolls forward to the following Winter:

Cooler December, warmer February

[GaWx]

New CFS forecast for Indian Ocean

Nov: still -IOD (W IO less E IO)

 

Dec: rising quickly toward neutral, which would be consistent with climo since -IOD typically is already peaking or has already peaked

@snowman19

[SnowGoose69]

14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

October SOI came in at +12.. which was the highest monthly reading since December 2022! Here's how that rolls forward to the following Winter:

Cooler December, warmer February

Yeah problem still is the subsurface is concerning.  I am not confident this thing gets over like -0.6 

[FPizz]

[GaWx]

57 minutes ago, FPizz said:

  This has the ens 10 mb mean zonal wind as low as only +14 to +15 in late Nov (prior runs’ lowest were +18) and is at least tied for the highest % of members of any run so far this season with a very early season major SSW (reversal) at 25%+.

[snowman19]

15 hours ago, GaWx said:

New CFS forecast for Indian Ocean
Nov: still -IOD (W IO less E IO)

 
Dec: rising quickly toward neutral, which would be consistent with climo since -IOD typically is already peaking or has already peaked

[mention=13098]snowman19[/mention]

The IOD is peaking right now. It’s at -1.94 through 11/2 and expected to peak by 11/10. With the ongoing cooling in the WIO and warming in the EIO, I expect it to bottom out on the next weekly update at or slightly below -2.

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

The Northeast Pacific continues to cool, the “blob” area has cooled over -1.25C since September 1st. While these SSTs are not driving the pattern, it’s indicative of a longwave pattern that favors cooling in that area. If we get to 11/30 with no sign of this trend completely reversing, it’s going to become very difficult for people to continuing using years that saw SST patterns with a “warm blob”. To clarify, I’m only speaking of the people who are using SST analogs with warm blobs, not other factors (QBO, solar, PDO, AMO, etc.) to justify certain analogs
 

[EastonSN+]

16 hours ago, GaWx said:

New CFS forecast for Indian Ocean

Nov: still -IOD (W IO less E IO)

 

Dec: rising quickly toward neutral, which would be consistent with climo since -IOD typically is already peaking or has already peaked

@snowman19

Side note, like seeing the colling off the coast of China and Indonesia.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 hours ago, snowman19 said:

At absolutely no point did I ever say it wouldn’t be a weak La Niña. Never ever, not once. However, it is much, much better coupled than last year at this time 

I mean, MEI last year peaked at -1, 2008 was also -1. I know we don't have access to the current MEI, but I really fail to see why it would be any higher than either of those seasons. Again, I think you are getting carried away with the significance of the -IOD, which as you have acknowledged on several occasions, was also significant in 2008.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said:

2007-08 or 2008-09?

it's very hard to isolate the effect of the -IOD given covariability between IOD and ENSO, but webb tried to do so (for weak to mdt -ENSO using 20cr) and the results were interesting; hints of -NAO/+PNA in early winter then a snap to +NAO and strong PV in feb, sort of exaggerating canonical nina progression(also similar to -QBO/high solar -ENSO)

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1984271391596916942

2008-2009.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

  This has the ens 10 mb mean zonal wind as low as only +14 to +15 in late Nov (prior runs’ lowest were +18) and is at least tied for the highest % of members of any run so far this season with a very early season major SSW (reversal) at 25%+.

I don't think we get there for an actual SSW early season...it's not without representation in my analogs, but it's a long shot. I think December 1981 pulled it off...my money is on later in the season.

[GaWx]

Oct 30 mb QBO came in at -24.65 vs Sept’s -24.26:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah problem still is the subsurface is concerning.  I am not confident this thing gets over like -0.6 

Be very careful with this...I mentioned to Chuck a couple of weeks ago that the subsurface warmth has been hitting a brick wall around 140-150W dating back to last summer, and sure enough...it has already started to build back. I would read into that more with regard to the EMI thana sign of the demise of the event. We have seen some eorosion on the east flank, which guidance hinted at, but it should be brief. This is going to be east-based and is likely to break -0.6 ONI.

[GaWx]

New BoM RONI prog (I love that they prog RONI these days!) is slightly cooler than last week’s prog with NDJ low at -0.9 vs last week’s -0.8, possibly being aided by current very strong -IOD.

 

Last week’s RONI progged low: -0.8 (NDJ)

[EasternLI]

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

  This has the ens 10 mb mean zonal wind as low as only +14 to +15 in late Nov (prior runs’ lowest were +18) and is at least tied for the highest % of members of any run so far this season with a very early season major SSW (reversal) at 25%+.

There are perhaps some clues to keep an eye on in the context of this. As whatever happens higher up in the atmosphere is strongly tied to the progression in the troposphere. Namely, keep an eye on what transpires in the north Pacific. There's a great paper on these events and why they occur in both el nino and la nina. I'll post below figure 1 from this paper along with the explanation given for the image. Also of note, some of the recent ensemble runs have been showing some similarities to the precursor 500mb later in the runs. I'll add the 00z EPS from last night after that for example. I suspect the amount of members achieving the ssw have been the ones with a deep north Pacific low in their progression in the proper location. Not saying one happens, only that there seems to be a valid reason for some of those members to be showing it. 

 

Why might stratospheric sudden warmings occur with similar frequency in El Niño and La Niña winters?

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012JD017777

Quote

In this section we develop an explanation for the similar fSSW in EN and LN winters in the observational record. We will then test this explanation in Section 3.2. Figures 1a and 1b show the teleconnections associated with LN and EN, and Figure 1c shows geopotential height anomalies at 500 hPa preceding SSWs (independent of ENSO phase). Prior to SSWs, a deep subpolar low height anomaly is centered just west of the dateline (denoted by a square on Figure 1). As discussed in the introduction, anomalously deep lows in this region constructively interfere with the stationary waves and weaken the vortex [Garfinkel and Hartmann, 2008; Ineson and Scaife, 2009; Nishii et al., 2009; Garfinkel et al., 2010]. Regardless of ENSO phase, low height anomalies in the North Pacific are present throughout the period in which the vortex is weakening (not shown). The key point of Figure 1 is that the anomalies preceding SSWs are different from the LN and EN teleconnections; namely, the anomalous low that precedes SSWs (the square) is to the northwest of the region where ENSO teleconnections are strongest (the star).

 

Last nights 00z EPS - note this is a 5 day mean

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, GaWx said:

New BoM RONI prog (I love that they prog RONI these days!) is slightly cooler than last week’s prog with NDJ low at -0.9 vs last week’s -0.8, possibly being aided by current very strong -IOD.

 

Last week’s RONI progged low: -0.8 (NDJ)

I've been anticipating a -1 to -1.2 peak RONI,

[40/70 Benchmark]

@Stormchaserchuck1 What was your final NAO number?

[EasternLI]

Eps had a bit of a nod to the Gefs ideas with the MJO at 00z.

 

[snowman19]

31 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Eps had a bit of a nod to the Gefs ideas with the MJO at 00z.

 

I think it does get into phase 6/7. My big question is what happens when it reaches 7

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think it does get into phase 6/7. My big question is what happens when it reaches 7

The ACCESS BOM from Australia when I checked yesterday argued it does not really make it heavily into 7 and definitely not 8.  I have found that model sometimes is better than the EPS/GEFS for the MJO in the longer range

[Krs4Lfe]

I feel like we can start off with the base state when making predictions for early winter. Until that PacJet slows down and we can get bigger troughs moving into CONUS, I think early winter would be quite muted across CONUS similar to the very inactive (in the winter weather department) December 2023 and December 2024 and some of those same problems trickled down through the rest of those winters. 

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I feel like we can start off with the base state when making predictions for early winter. Until that PacJet slows down and we can get bigger troughs moving into CONUS, I think early winter would be quite muted across CONUS similar to the very inactive (in the winter weather department) December 2023 and December 2024 and some of those same problems trickled down through the rest of those winters. 

 Speaking of Conus troughs: 

 After having a few chilly runs in late Oct in the E US for the period around Veteran’s Day and then backing off to mild, the model consensus since Nov 1st has gotten much colder for then with the last few runs being the coldest yet!

 Check out this EPS progression for 0Z on Nov 9th from the 0Z 10/30 run through the 0Z 11/3 run: check out the big rise in Greenland heights along with the increased +PNA intensity: this shows that models out 10 days were clueless!

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I feel like we can start off with the base state when making predictions for early winter. Until that PacJet slows down and we can get bigger troughs moving into CONUS, I think early winter would be quite muted across CONUS similar to the very inactive (in the winter weather department) December 2023 and December 2024 and some of those same problems trickled down through the rest of those winters. 

2024, sure.....this won't be like December 2023. It's not going to be that mild.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Speaking of Conus troughs: 

 After having a few chilly runs in late Oct in the E US for the period around Veteran’s Day and then backing off to mild, the model consensus since Nov 1st has gotten much colder for then with the last few runs being the coldest yet!

 Check out this EPS progression for 0Z on Nov 9th from the 0Z 10/30 run through the 0Z 11/3 run: check out the big rise in Greenland heights along with the increased +PNA intensity: this shows that models out 10 days were clueless!

The @bluewaveantichrist pattern with NAO blocking connecting with southWEST ridging lol

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The ACCESS BOM from Australia when I checked yesterday argued it does not really make it heavily into 7 and definitely not 8.  I have found that model sometimes is better than the EPS/GEFS for the MJO in the longer range

My best guess right now is that it dies when it hits phase 7 then ends up back in the IO