40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yep . Oh, boy...this is going to get snowman to go off and tear Cohen a new one after he's done with JB 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago I'm sure a few others will chime in on that, too....."Perhaps Siberian snow had some influence in previous decades, but in this new, warmer climate it doesn't seem to matter" (insert peer reviewed article citing the effect of greenhouses gases on increased tri state suicides, and imagery of blood-red water east of Japan). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: PHL average winter temps 1985-86 and before: 34.1 1986-87 to 1996-97: 35.6 1997-98 to 2014-15: 35.9 2015-16 to present: 38.7 2015-16 to present matches Richmond's average winter temp 1951-1980 - 38.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, chubbs said: 2015-16 to present matches Richmond's average temp 1951-1980 - 38.4. Boston 2015-2016 to present is probably similar to 1951-1980 NYC or Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: PHL average winter temps 1985-86 and before: 34.1 1986-87 to 1996-97: 35.6 1997-98 to 2014-15: 35.9 2015-16 to present: 38.7 I was happy for you guys back in 2009-2010 even though the jackpot that winter was to my south. You were able to get that outcome due to how cold the CONUS was that winter. Needed the 27th coldest CONUS winter at 30.70° to get such heavy snows a far south as the DC to Philly metros. Since the big shift warmer in 2015-2016, this last 2024-2025 relatively colder winter was 34.05° and the 27th warmest. So a colder winter during the post 1994-2015 snowy era was much warmer than a cold winter back in that era. The fall patterns were precursors to both winters. October 2009 was the 4th coldest winter since 1895 for the CONUS. October 2024 was the 2nd warmest on record. So another metric of how much warmer the climate across the seasons has warmed since 2015-2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Boston 2015-2016 to present is probably similar to 1951-1980 NYC or Philly. Boston 2015/16-now, 34.7, matches BWI 1951-80, 34.6. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 46 minutes ago Share Posted 46 minutes ago We are making some small progress. An actual strong -NAO pattern not linking with the Southeast ridge for a change. I will be happy if we can at least get a few of these during the winter to make things more interesting than the several winters. But it has been easier to do more in the off season recently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 10 minutes ago Author Share Posted 10 minutes ago 35 minutes ago, bluewave said: We are making some small progress. An actual strong -NAO pattern not linking with the Southeast ridge for a change. I will be happy if we can at least get a few of these during the winter to make things more interesting than the several winters. But it has been easier to do more in the off season recently. Yea, the trick has been pulling this off during the actual cold season....the shoulder seasons of fall and spring have been more prone to traditional blocking patterns, likely owed to the shorter wave lengths rdering Rosby waves less vulnerable to Pac jet intrusions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 8 minutes ago Share Posted 8 minutes ago 36 minutes ago, bluewave said: We are making some small progress. An actual strong -NAO pattern not linking with the Southeast ridge for a change. I will be happy if we can at least get a few of these during the winter to make things more interesting than the several winters. But it has been easier to do more in the off season recently. Seems like it happens every year for the last several….this shows up in October/November, never to be heard from again until late March/April 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 8 minutes ago Share Posted 8 minutes ago 43 minutes ago, bluewave said: We are making some small progress. An actual strong -NAO pattern not linking with the Southeast ridge for a change. I will be happy if we can at least get a few of these during the winter to make things more interesting than the several winters. But it has been easier to do more in the off season recently. There’s been no correlation of -NAO in October and DJF at least since 2009: Since then 2009, 2012-4, 2019, 2021, and 2023 all had a strong (<-1) NAO in Oct. Of these, only 2009 had a -NAO for the subsequent winter. Octs have had a -NAO leaning since 2009 while winters have leaned +NAO. Actually, since 1980, there have been only 6 sub -0.25 DJF NAOs, all within ~2 years of a solar minimum. And despite the -NAO leaning of Oct, check out the sharp change overall to a +NAO leaning in Nov since 2009! Something seems to change pretty drastically between Oct and Nov related to the NAO (at least since 2009). And then the winters have been mainly +NAO as I already said. Do you or does anyone else know what has driven this? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 6 minutes ago Share Posted 6 minutes ago Just now, GaWx said: There’s been no correlation of -NAO in October and DJF at least since 2009: Since then 2009, 2012-4, 2019, 2021, and 2023 all had a strong (<-1) NAO in Oct. Of these, only 2009 had a -NAO for the subsequent winter. Octs have had a -NAO leaning since 2009 while winters have leaned +NAO. And despite the -NAO leaning of Oct, check out the sharp change overall to a +NAO leaning in Nov since 2009! Something seems to change pretty drastically between Oct and Nov related to the NAO (at least since 2009). And then the winters have been mainly +NAO as I already said. Do you or does anyone else know what has driven this? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table There hasn’t been any correlation with the NAO from one month to the other with how wild the swings have become in recent years between highs and lows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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