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2025-2026 ENSO


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12 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Once the average seasonal snowfall drops below 4 inches (about the current average in Charlotte) in places like Baltimore and DC, then I know we've reached the point of no return. At that point, snowy winters might be a thing of the past.

It might not happen with the 2001-30 averages, but it's certainly possible in the 2011-40 averages.

This is hyperbole. Why?

-DCA from 2000-01 through 2024-25 averaged 13”. Even if they were to have NO snow the next 5 winters, which of course is practically impossible since they’ve yet to have even one with 0”, they’d still average ~11” for 2001-30.

-DCA averaged 10.6” 2010-11 through 2024-25. If they were to have no snow the next 15 winters (of course nothing even close to that will happen), they’d still average 5.3” for 2011-40.

 So, averaging <4” in Baltimore and even at DCA would be impossible not only in 2001-30 but even in 2011-40. Even for DCA to average <6” in 2011-40, they’d have to average <1.4” the next 15 winters. Only 4 of the last 141 winters (3%) had <1.4”. Yes, 3 of those have been since 1997-8, but that’s still only 3 of the last 28 or 11%. So, I see virtually no way for DCA to even get down to 6” for 2011-40. Even getting it down to 7” would require the next 15 years to average only 3.4”. That’s highly unlikely. But if that high unlikelihood were to somehow happen, we’re talking 7” at DCA for 2011-40 vs you saying 4” is possible.

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15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. I suspect that's part of the reason we saw a very warm end to September across much of the CONUS.

This -AAM regime is extremely impressive. A 180 degree difference from what we were seeing last year at this time…

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5 hours ago, GaWx said:

This is hyperbole. Why?

-DCA from 2000-01 through 2024-25 averaged 13”. Even if they were to have NO snow the next 5 winters, which of course is practically impossible since they’ve yet to have even one with 0”, they’d still average ~11” for 2001-30.

-DCA averaged 10.6” 2010-11 through 2024-25. If they were to have no snow the next 15 winters (of course nothing even close to that will happen), they’d still average 5.3” for 2011-40.

 So, averaging <4” in Baltimore and even at DCA would be impossible not only in 2001-30 but even in 2011-40. Even for DCA to average <6” in 2011-40, they’d have to average <1.4” the next 15 winters. Only 4 of the last 141 winters (3%) had <1.4”. Yes, 3 of those have been since 1997-8, but that’s still only 3 of the last 28 or 11%. So, I see virtually no way for DCA to even get down to 6” for 2011-40. Even getting it down to 7” would require the next 15 years to average only 3.4”. That’s highly unlikely. But if that high unlikelihood were to somehow happen, we’re talking 7” at DCA for 2011-40 vs you saying 4” is possible.

30 years averages will take longer to catch up with the shorter term changes. But DCA has only averaged  7.8” over the last 9 seasons.

We’ll have to see if the next decade declines a bit more or holds closer to the 7.8” figure. They had been at 17.4”for the previous 9 season period.

This is their first 9 year stretch with an average under 10”.  Their highest 9 year run was 29.9” back in 1912.
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean 0.0 0.2 0.3 5.0 1.5 0.9 T 7.8
2024-2025 0.0 T 0.1 8.3 6.5 0.0 0.0 14.9
2023-2024 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.8 0.1 T T 8.0
2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 0.4 T T 0.4
2021-2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3 T 0.9 0.0 13.2
2020-2021 0.0 0.0 T 2.6 2.8 0.0 0.0 5.4
2019-2020 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 T 0.0 0.0 0.6
2018-2019 0.0 1.4 0.0 11.5 3.7 0.3 0.0 16.9
2017-2018 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.2 0.2 4.5 T 7.8
2016-2017 0.0 0.0 T 1.4 T 2.0 0.0 3.4

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean T T 2.6 5.5 6.5 2.8 T 17.4
2015-2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.8 3.1 0.3 T 22.2
2014-2015 0.0 T T 3.6 9.8 4.9 T 18.3
2013-2014 0.0 T 1.5 6.6 11.2 12.7 T 32.0
2012-2013 0.0 T 0.2 0.9 0.4 1.6 0.0 3.1
2011-2012 T 0.0 T 1.7 0.3 T 0.0 2.0
2010-2011 0.0 T 2.1 7.3 0.5 0.2 T 10.1
2009-2010 0.0 0.0 16.6 7.4 32.1 T 0.0 56.1
2008-2009 0.0 T T 1.9 0.1 5.5 0.0 7.5
2007-2008 0.0 0.0 2.6 1.3 1.0 0.0 0.0 4.9


 

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17 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Once the average seasonal snowfall drops below 4 inches (about the current average in Charlotte) in places like Baltimore and DC, then I know we've reached the point of no return. At that point, snowy winters might be a thing of the past.

It might not happen with the 2001-30 averages, but it's certainly possible in the 2011-40 averages.

That's not likely to happen for decades. Even if Baltimore sees no snow from winter 2025-26 through 2039-40 (virtually certain not to be the case), the 30-season moving average would be 7.2" vs. the current 18.9" through 2024-2025. Through at least mid-century, there will likely be some snowy winters even as the long-term snowfall average generally declines. 

image.png.2e4c4821db0c4d4dde0253df26405ff2.png

Although Washington, DC has likely transitioned into a lower snowfall regime and Baltimore to NYC are likely in the early stages of such a transition, the idea that snowy winters are a thing of the past is not likely to hold true through at least mid-century, if not longer. Such winters will likely grow less frequent as warming continues, but they won't disappear altogether. That outcome might not occur until global temperatures are 3°C above pre-industrial levels, which appears likely in the vicinity of 2100 (maybe a little earlier if some of the positive feedbacks e.g., Arctic cloud changes, etc. lead to a further acceleration in warming).

The transition for Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York City will likely be noisier (bigger rise, greater volatility) and perhaps a bit more extended e.g.. to 37.5° mean winter temperatures than it was for Washington, DC due to their closer proximity to cold source regions.

image.png.ccb585cc9fcf62a00f29178322ea75c3.png

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23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

That's not likely to happen for decades. Even if Baltimore sees no snow from winter 2025-26 through 2039-40 (virtually certain not to be the case), the 30-season moving average would be 7.2" vs. the current 18.9" through 2024-2025. Through at least mid-century, there will likely be some snowy winters even as the long-term snowfall average generally declines. 

image.png.2e4c4821db0c4d4dde0253df26405ff2.png

Although Washington, DC has likely transitioned into a lower snowfall regime and Baltimore to NYC are likely in the early stages of such a transition, the idea that snowy winters are a thing of the past is not likely to hold true through at least mid-century, if not longer. Such winters will likely grow less frequent as warming continues, but they won't disappear altogether. That outcome might not occur until global temperatures are 3°C above pre-industrial levels, which appears likely in the vicinity of 2100 (maybe a little earlier if some of the positive feedbacks e.g., Arctic cloud changes, etc. lead to a further acceleration in warming).

The transition for Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York City will likely be noisier (bigger rise, greater volatility) and perhaps a bit more extended e.g.. to 37.5° mean winter temperatures than it was for Washington, DC due to their closer proximity to cold source regions.

image.png.ccb585cc9fcf62a00f29178322ea75c3.png

It's incredible how many people are incapable of nuanced thought...it has to be one extreme or the other. Either CC doesn't exist/won't impact winter, or "snowy seasons are a thing of the past". Either side loses credibility instantly with me. Jesus...accept the fact that CC is real and is impacting our wintrers, but it can still snow...both are true.

I should focus my practice on Dialectical Behavioral Therapy for weather folks...I'd make a killing.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

30 years averages will take longer to catch up with the shorter term changes. But DCA has only averaged  7.8” over the last 9 seasons.

We’ll have to see if the next decade declines a bit more or holds closer to the 7.8” figure. They had been at 17.4”for the previous 9 season period.

This is their first 9 year stretch with an average under 10”.  Their highest 9 year run was 29.9” back in 1912.
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean 0.0 0.2 0.3 5.0 1.5 0.9 T 7.8
2024-2025 0.0 T 0.1 8.3 6.5 0.0 0.0 14.9
2023-2024 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.8 0.1 T T 8.0
2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 0.4 T T 0.4
2021-2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3 T 0.9 0.0 13.2
2020-2021 0.0 0.0 T 2.6 2.8 0.0 0.0 5.4
2019-2020 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 T 0.0 0.0 0.6
2018-2019 0.0 1.4 0.0 11.5 3.7 0.3 0.0 16.9
2017-2018 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.2 0.2 4.5 T 7.8
2016-2017 0.0 0.0 T 1.4 T 2.0 0.0 3.4

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean T T 2.6 5.5 6.5 2.8 T 17.4
2015-2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.8 3.1 0.3 T 22.2
2014-2015 0.0 T T 3.6 9.8 4.9 T 18.3
2013-2014 0.0 T 1.5 6.6 11.2 12.7 T 32.0
2012-2013 0.0 T 0.2 0.9 0.4 1.6 0.0 3.1
2011-2012 T 0.0 T 1.7 0.3 T 0.0 2.0
2010-2011 0.0 T 2.1 7.3 0.5 0.2 T 10.1
2009-2010 0.0 0.0 16.6 7.4 32.1 T 0.0 56.1
2008-2009 0.0 T T 1.9 0.1 5.5 0.0 7.5
2007-2008 0.0 0.0 2.6 1.3 1.0 0.0 0.0 4.9


 


Chris,

 Who’s to say that the next 9 seasons won’t jump back somewhat given that 2016-7 through 2024-5 was the lightest 9 year avg on record? 
  
 Consider this: 1948-9 through 1956-7 averaged only 10.9”, which at the time was the lightest 9 season avg on record and was much lower than the 17.6” of the prior 9 season avg:
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx)

Mean 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 1.4 1.8 4.4 1.4 1.9 0.0 T T 10.9
1948-1949 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 4.4 7.4 4.0 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.8
1949-1950 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 0.3 T 3.1 T 0.0 0.0 3.4
1950-1951 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 3.8 0.8 3.0 1.0 0.0 T 0.0 10.2
1951-1952 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 4.8 1.6 T 3.8 T 0.0 T 10.2
1952-1953 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 2.0 1.3 0.2 3.1 T 0.0 T 8.3
1953-1954 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 6.7 T 11.3 T T T 0.0 0.0 18.0
1954-1955 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.0 0.1 2.3 4.2 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6
1955-1956 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.5 4.5 T 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.3
1956-1957 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.2 10.1 1.6 2.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 14.2


 The subsequent 9 seasons jumped way up to 25.0”, one of their heaviest 9 season stretches:
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx)
Mean 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.2 5.1 6.8 7.9 4.9 0.0 T 0.0 25.0
1957-1958 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.3 12.0 0.3 17.2 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.4
1958-1959 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.9 4.0 T T T 0.0 0.0 4.9
1959-1960 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T T 7.2 17.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.3
1960-1961 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 8.7 13.6 18.0 T T 0.0 0.0 40.3
1961-1962 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.2 2.0 6.5 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0
1962-1963 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 16.2 2.1 2.0 1.1 0.0 T 0.0 21.4
1963-1964 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 6.4 8.9 11.7 6.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 33.6
1964-1965 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 9.1 1.9 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.1
1965-1966 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 21.3 6.9 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.4


—————

 Then 1968-9 through 1976-7 attained a new 9 season record low of 10.5”:

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.2 2.7 3.0 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.5
1968-1969 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 0.2 2.2 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1
1969-1970 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 6.8 3.6 3.6 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.0
1970-1971 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 5.2 4.8 0.3 1.4 T 0.0 0.0 11.7
1971-1972 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.1 0.3 14.4 T 0.6 0.0 0.0 16.8
1972-1973 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 0.0 T 0.1 T T 0.0 0.0 0.1
1973-1974 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0 1.5 4.2 T T 0.0 0.0 16.7
1974-1975 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 0.1 6.6 5.8 0.3 T 0.0 0.0 12.8
1975-1976 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
1976-1977 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.6 9.7 0.0 0.0 T 0.0 0.0 11.1


 

 That new record low had followed the prior 9 season avg of 26.5”:

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 6.2 6.8 8.4 4.2 0.0 T 0.0 26.5
1959-1960 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T T 7.2 17.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.3
1960-1961 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 8.7 13.6 18.0 T T 0.0 0.0 40.3
1961-1962 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.2 2.0 6.5 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0
1962-1963 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 16.2 2.1 2.0 1.1 0.0 T 0.0 21.4
1963-1964 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 6.4 8.9 11.7 6.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 33.6
1964-1965 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 9.1 1.9 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.1
1965-1966 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 21.3 6.9 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.4
1966-1967 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 16.1 1.3 19.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.1
1967-1968 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9 6.3 2.8 2.4 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.4


 And the new record low 9 season 1968-9 through 1976-7 avg of 10.5” was followed by an 18.8” 9 season mean for 1977-8 through 1985-6:

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 6.7 8.7 1.8 T 0.0 0.0 18.8
1977-1978 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.3 3.8 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.7
1978-1979 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 T 4.0 30.6 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.7
1979-1980 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 T 8.6 5.1 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.1
1980-1981 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.3 4.2 T T 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5
1981-1982 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 1.7 15.3 5.3 0.2 T 0.0 0.0 22.5
1982-1983 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 T 21.0 0.0 T 0.0 0.0 27.6
1983-1984 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 T 6.5 T 1.8 T 0.0 0.0 8.6
1984-1985 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.3 10.0 T T T 0.0 0.0 10.3
1985-1986 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.8 12.9 T T 0.0 0.0 15.4


—————

 So, in summary:

1939-40 through 1947-8: 17.6”
1948-9 through 1956-7: 10.9”
1957-8 through 1965-6: 25.0”

 

1959-60 through 1967-8: 26.5”
1968-9 through 1976-7: 10.5”
1977-8 through 1985-6: 18.8”

 

2007-8 through 2015-6: 15.9”
2016-7 through 2024-5: 7.8”
2025-6 through 2033-4: ???


 Maybe 2025-6 through 2033-4 will jump back up a nice amount. It wouldn’t at all surprise me if it were to jump back up to ~12-15”. And then perhaps it would drop back down. Obviously nobody knows. Yes, it’s overall been headed down with the warming, which is intuitive. But I assume we can agree it’s nowhere near a straight plunge.

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25 minutes ago, GaWx said:


Chris,

 Who’s to say that the next 9 seasons won’t jump back somewhat given that 2016-7 through 2024-5 was the lightest 9 year avg on record? 
  
 Consider this: 1948-9 through 1956-7 averaged only 10.9”, which at the time was the lightest 9 season avg on record and was much lower than the 17.6” of the prior 9 season avg:
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx)

Mean 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 1.4 1.8 4.4 1.4 1.9 0.0 T T 10.9
1948-1949 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 4.4 7.4 4.0 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.8
1949-1950 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 0.3 T 3.1 T 0.0 0.0 3.4
1950-1951 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 3.8 0.8 3.0 1.0 0.0 T 0.0 10.2
1951-1952 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 4.8 1.6 T 3.8 T 0.0 T 10.2
1952-1953 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 2.0 1.3 0.2 3.1 T 0.0 T 8.3
1953-1954 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 6.7 T 11.3 T T T 0.0 0.0 18.0
1954-1955 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.0 0.1 2.3 4.2 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6
1955-1956 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.5 4.5 T 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.3
1956-1957 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.2 10.1 1.6 2.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 14.2


 The subsequent 9 seasons jumped way up to 25.0”, one of their heaviest 9 season stretches:
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx)
Mean 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.2 5.1 6.8 7.9 4.9 0.0 T 0.0 25.0
1957-1958 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.3 12.0 0.3 17.2 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.4
1958-1959 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.9 4.0 T T T 0.0 0.0 4.9
1959-1960 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T T 7.2 17.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.3
1960-1961 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 8.7 13.6 18.0 T T 0.0 0.0 40.3
1961-1962 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.2 2.0 6.5 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0
1962-1963 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 16.2 2.1 2.0 1.1 0.0 T 0.0 21.4
1963-1964 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 6.4 8.9 11.7 6.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 33.6
1964-1965 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 9.1 1.9 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.1
1965-1966 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 21.3 6.9 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.4


—————

 Then 1968-9 through 1976-7 attained a new 9 season record low of 10.5”:

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.2 2.7 3.0 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.5
1968-1969 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 0.2 2.2 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1
1969-1970 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 6.8 3.6 3.6 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.0
1970-1971 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 5.2 4.8 0.3 1.4 T 0.0 0.0 11.7
1971-1972 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.1 0.3 14.4 T 0.6 0.0 0.0 16.8
1972-1973 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 0.0 T 0.1 T T 0.0 0.0 0.1
1973-1974 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0 1.5 4.2 T T 0.0 0.0 16.7
1974-1975 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 0.1 6.6 5.8 0.3 T 0.0 0.0 12.8
1975-1976 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
1976-1977 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.6 9.7 0.0 0.0 T 0.0 0.0 11.1


 

 That new record low had followed the prior 9 season avg of 26.5”:

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 6.2 6.8 8.4 4.2 0.0 T 0.0 26.5
1959-1960 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T T 7.2 17.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.3
1960-1961 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 8.7 13.6 18.0 T T 0.0 0.0 40.3
1961-1962 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.2 2.0 6.5 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0
1962-1963 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 16.2 2.1 2.0 1.1 0.0 T 0.0 21.4
1963-1964 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 6.4 8.9 11.7 6.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 33.6
1964-1965 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 9.1 1.9 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.1
1965-1966 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 21.3 6.9 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.4
1966-1967 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 16.1 1.3 19.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.1
1967-1968 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9 6.3 2.8 2.4 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.4


 And the new record low 9 season 1968-9 through 1976-7 avg of 10.5” was followed by an 18.8” 9 season mean for 1977-8 through 1985-6:

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 6.7 8.7 1.8 T 0.0 0.0 18.8
1977-1978 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.3 3.8 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.7
1978-1979 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 T 4.0 30.6 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.7
1979-1980 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 T 8.6 5.1 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.1
1980-1981 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.3 4.2 T T 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5
1981-1982 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 1.7 15.3 5.3 0.2 T 0.0 0.0 22.5
1982-1983 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 T 21.0 0.0 T 0.0 0.0 27.6
1983-1984 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 T 6.5 T 1.8 T 0.0 0.0 8.6
1984-1985 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.3 10.0 T T T 0.0 0.0 10.3
1985-1986 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.8 12.9 T T 0.0 0.0 15.4


—————

 So, in summary:

1939-40 through 1947-8: 17.6”
1948-9 through 1956-7: 10.9”
1957-8 through 1965-6: 25.0”

 

1959-60 through 1967-8: 26.5”
1968-9 through 1976-7: 10.5”
1977-8 through 1985-6: 18.8”

 

2007-8 through 2015-6: 15.9”
2016-7 through 2024-5: 7.8”
2025-6 through 2033-4: ???


 Maybe 2025-6 through 2033-4 will jump back up a nice amount. It wouldn’t at all surprise me if it were to jump back up to ~12-15”? And then perhaps it would drop back down. Obviously nobody knows. 

 

Those rebounds occurred back in a much colder climate. So previous snow droughts were a function of dry patterns and not too much warmth like we have seen in the last decade.

DC has been experiencing a long term snowfall decline as the winters have been warming. So unless the winters stop warming, the long decline will continue.

Hard to say if the next 9 years declines more, holds steady, or bounces a little off the current record lows. But it’s too warm now for a strong rebound like was the case for past 9 year lows with the 9 year means getting back above 20”. 

it would probably take VEI 7 eruption to cool the winters enough for a more significant rebound next 9 years. But long range volcanic forecasting is still very low skill. Plus the effects of large eruptions would only be temporary lasting several years.

 

9 year running mean snowfall is black line and the trend line is red

 

IMG_4827.thumb.jpeg.f9fa2f964bbbd1fc4037ff6002eb4154.jpeg

IMG_4828.thumb.jpeg.aa0afdae0d994beca6d1f7fb637d206e.jpeg


 

 

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1 hour ago, GaWx said:


Chris,

 Who’s to say that the next 9 seasons won’t jump back somewhat given that 2016-7 through 2024-5 was the lightest 9 year avg on record? 
  
 Consider this: 1948-9 through 1956-7 averaged only 10.9”, which at the time was the lightest 9 season avg on record and was much lower than the 17.6” of the prior 9 season avg:
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx)

Mean 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 1.4 1.8 4.4 1.4 1.9 0.0 T T 10.9
1948-1949 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 4.4 7.4 4.0 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.8
1949-1950 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 0.3 T 3.1 T 0.0 0.0 3.4
1950-1951 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 3.8 0.8 3.0 1.0 0.0 T 0.0 10.2
1951-1952 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 4.8 1.6 T 3.8 T 0.0 T 10.2
1952-1953 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 2.0 1.3 0.2 3.1 T 0.0 T 8.3
1953-1954 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 6.7 T 11.3 T T T 0.0 0.0 18.0
1954-1955 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.0 0.1 2.3 4.2 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6
1955-1956 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.5 4.5 T 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.3
1956-1957 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.2 10.1 1.6 2.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 14.2


 The subsequent 9 seasons jumped way up to 25.0”, one of their heaviest 9 season stretches:
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx)
Mean 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.2 5.1 6.8 7.9 4.9 0.0 T 0.0 25.0
1957-1958 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.3 12.0 0.3 17.2 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.4
1958-1959 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.9 4.0 T T T 0.0 0.0 4.9
1959-1960 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T T 7.2 17.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.3
1960-1961 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 8.7 13.6 18.0 T T 0.0 0.0 40.3
1961-1962 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.2 2.0 6.5 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0
1962-1963 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 16.2 2.1 2.0 1.1 0.0 T 0.0 21.4
1963-1964 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 6.4 8.9 11.7 6.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 33.6
1964-1965 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 9.1 1.9 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.1
1965-1966 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 21.3 6.9 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.4


—————

 Then 1968-9 through 1976-7 attained a new 9 season record low of 10.5”:

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.2 2.7 3.0 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.5
1968-1969 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 0.2 2.2 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1
1969-1970 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 6.8 3.6 3.6 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.0
1970-1971 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 5.2 4.8 0.3 1.4 T 0.0 0.0 11.7
1971-1972 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.1 0.3 14.4 T 0.6 0.0 0.0 16.8
1972-1973 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 0.0 T 0.1 T T 0.0 0.0 0.1
1973-1974 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0 1.5 4.2 T T 0.0 0.0 16.7
1974-1975 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 0.1 6.6 5.8 0.3 T 0.0 0.0 12.8
1975-1976 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
1976-1977 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.6 9.7 0.0 0.0 T 0.0 0.0 11.1


 

 That new record low had followed the prior 9 season avg of 26.5”:

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 6.2 6.8 8.4 4.2 0.0 T 0.0 26.5
1959-1960 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T T 7.2 17.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.3
1960-1961 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 8.7 13.6 18.0 T T 0.0 0.0 40.3
1961-1962 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.2 2.0 6.5 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0
1962-1963 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 16.2 2.1 2.0 1.1 0.0 T 0.0 21.4
1963-1964 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 6.4 8.9 11.7 6.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 33.6
1964-1965 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 9.1 1.9 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.1
1965-1966 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 21.3 6.9 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.4
1966-1967 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 16.1 1.3 19.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.1
1967-1968 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9 6.3 2.8 2.4 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.4


 And the new record low 9 season 1968-9 through 1976-7 avg of 10.5” was followed by an 18.8” 9 season mean for 1977-8 through 1985-6:

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 6.7 8.7 1.8 T 0.0 0.0 18.8
1977-1978 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.3 3.8 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.7
1978-1979 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 T 4.0 30.6 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.7
1979-1980 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 T 8.6 5.1 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.1
1980-1981 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.3 4.2 T T 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5
1981-1982 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 1.7 15.3 5.3 0.2 T 0.0 0.0 22.5
1982-1983 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 T 21.0 0.0 T 0.0 0.0 27.6
1983-1984 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 T 6.5 T 1.8 T 0.0 0.0 8.6
1984-1985 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.3 10.0 T T T 0.0 0.0 10.3
1985-1986 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.8 12.9 T T 0.0 0.0 15.4


—————

 So, in summary:

1939-40 through 1947-8: 17.6”
1948-9 through 1956-7: 10.9”
1957-8 through 1965-6: 25.0”

 

1959-60 through 1967-8: 26.5”
1968-9 through 1976-7: 10.5”
1977-8 through 1985-6: 18.8”

 

2007-8 through 2015-6: 15.9”
2016-7 through 2024-5: 7.8”
2025-6 through 2033-4: ???


 Maybe 2025-6 through 2033-4 will jump back up a nice amount. It wouldn’t at all surprise me if it were to jump back up to ~12-15”. And then perhaps it would drop back down. Obviously nobody knows. Yes, it’s overall been headed down with the warming, which is intuitive. But I assume we can agree it’s nowhere near a straight plunge.

Short answer.  He mentioned several times we need a climate changing type of volcano for NYC to see 50" of snow again in a season.  No need to really bring this up to him ever again after that statement.

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28 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Short answer.  He mentioned several times we need a climate changing type of volcano for NYC to see 50" of snow again in a season.  No need to really bring this up to him ever again after that statement.

Why do you say that? Since I am only pointing out what the current climate is capable of producing. Absent a major volcanic event, it’s statistically unlikely for NYC to see a 50” season with how much the winters and the storm tracks have warmed.

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16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Why do you say that? Since I am only pointing out what the current climate is capable of producing. Absent a major volcanic event, it’s statistically unlikely for NYC to see a 50” season with how much the winters and the storm tracks have warmed.

I don't agree with this, but it's no sense arguing because this topic is so politicized....no one is ever going to change the other's mind. My guess if that even if it happens, the debate will still wage on because it will get worked into the narrative some how...."Well, we are fortunate we had a mismatch, which I saw comeing when the October MJO spiked...but it won't happen again". Long story short...it's like politics. No one is ever going to change their mind or admit that they are wrong...and around, around we will go-

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38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't agree with this, but it's no sense arguing because this topic so politicized....no one is ever going to change the other's mind. My guess if that even if it happens, the debate will still wage on because it will get worked into the narrative some how...."Well, we are fortunate we had a mismatch, which I saw comeing when the October MJO spiked...but it won't happen again". Long story short...it's like politics. No one is ever going to change their mind or admit that they are wrong...and around, around we will go-

NYC needs two things in order to have a 50” snowfall season. One is an average winter temperature close to 32°or colder. The other is a cold storm track out near the benchmark.

NYC has been nowhere near achieving this combination since the winters shifted so much warmer since 2015-2016.

First, the winters shifted warmer in 2015-2016 which was followed by a storm track warming since 2018-2019. NYC highest snowfall total over the last decade has only been 40.9”. The coldest winter average temperature has been 34.8°.

 

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC needs two things in order to have a 50” snowfall season. One is an average winter temperature close to 32 or colder. The other is a cold storm track out near the benchmark.

NYC has been nowhere near achieving this combination since the winters shifted so much warmer since 2015-2016.

First,the winters shifted warmer in 2015-2016 which was followed by a storm track warming since 2018-2019. NYC highest snowfall total over the last decade has only been 40.9”.

 

I understand your argument...I just don't fully agree with it. I think part of this unfavorable storm track is regression to the mean after getting high off of a decade that dealt 40" winters out like crack.

And I am convinced that even if NYC gets 50" in another winter, you won't change your mind. It will be "they are done now in this new and even warmer, climate"....keep kicking the can.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I understand your argument...I just don't fully agree with it. I think part of this unfavorable storm track is regression to the mean after getting high off of a decade that dealt 40" winters out like crack.

It’s more like a regression to the mean for what used to be average in past decades for locations to our south. So Boston has seen a reversion last 7 seasons for what was the old average closer to NYC. Then NYC has had a 7 year average closer to what used to be the old norm from DC to Philly. 

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s more like a regression to the mean for what used to be average in past decades for locations to our south. So Boston has seen a reversion last 7 seasons for what was the old average closer to NYC. Then NYC has had a 7 year average closer to what used to be the old norm from DC to Philly. 

This is true, although the late 80s and early 90s were petty comparable in terms of snowfall....obviously not temps. No debate there.

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Fwiw today from JB:

Warm October, Warm Winter. Yes and No

 I received an email last night saying alot of people on X are starting to hammer our winter idea because of the warm October. And they have good reason too, because warm Octobers centered in the Northeast tend to be warm winters. Some of the worst winters I can remember are those warm, dry Octobers 

 However there is a problem when we look at the analogs. When warm Octobers are centered in the heartland and the back part of the hurricane season ( more than 50% of ace after Sept 15) we get a very different story. What I did here with this analog is pick out the warmest Octobers since 1950 and double weighted the late season ACE ones:

IMG_4709.png.24c5e937d127619d8dde3323b18b20a9.png
 

So what do the winters look like?

IMG_4710.png.bc286c2227aae78fdc0927447456e8a9.png
 

 Here’s my main problem with his maps. He’s using 1991-2020 for climo, which makes his winter analog composite look significantly colder than if earlier climo were used. Keep in mind that half of his years are 1989 and earlier.

 What’s the most appropriate climo to use from that site? There’s no easy answer but something earlier than 1991-2020 would obviously be more appropriate. Octobers are still warm no matter what climo is chosen (different degrees of warmth depending on climo that’s chosen).
 
 If I use 1951-2010, I get this:

IMG_4723.png.2b7db71721538e4667a9e59aba87d023.png

 

 That actually shows very slightly mild or essentially NN. But perhaps that’s too far back although he does have 3 of his 10 weights as 1950-1.


 What about if I use 1971-2000?

 It’s also very slightly mild/NN in the NE US:

IMG_4722.png.5a5c6d969e3798a478fcd941a32b1752.png

 

 The point is that he used too warm climo, which made his winter analog average too cold.

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19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Fwiw today from JB:

Warm October, Warm Winter. Yes and No

 I received an email last night saying alot of people on X are starting to hammer our winter idea because of the warm October. And they have good reason too, because warm Octobers centered in the Northeast tend to be warm winters. Some of the worst winters I can remember are those warm, dry Octobers 

 However there is a problem when we look at the analogs. When warm Octobers are centered in the heartland and the back part of the hurricane season ( more than 50% of ace after Sept 15) we get a very different story. What I did here with this analog is pick out the warmest Octobers since 1950 and double weighted the late season ACE ones:

IMG_4709.png.24c5e937d127619d8dde3323b18b20a9.png
 

So what do the winters look like?

IMG_4710.png.bc286c2227aae78fdc0927447456e8a9.png
 

 Here’s my main problem with his maps. He’s using 1991-2020 for climo, which makes his winter analog composite look significantly colder than if earlier climo were used. Keep in mind that half of his years are 1989 and earlier.

 What’s the most appropriate climo to use from that site? There’s no easy answer but something earlier than 1991-2020 would obviously be more appropriate. Octobers are still warm no matter what climo is chosen (different degrees of warmth depending on climo that’s chosen).
 
 If I use 1951-2010, I get this:

IMG_4723.png.2b7db71721538e4667a9e59aba87d023.png

 

 That actually shows very slightly mild or essentially NN. But perhaps that’s too far back although he does have 3 of his 10 weights as 1950-1.


 What about if I use 1971-2000?

 It’s also very slightly mild/NN in the NE US:

IMG_4722.png.5a5c6d969e3798a478fcd941a32b1752.png

 

 The point is that he used too warm climo, which made his winter analog average too cold.

Honestly, why even bother trying to fact check what that asshole says? 

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