2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

12 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Once the average seasonal snowfall drops below 4 inches (about the current average in Charlotte) in places like Baltimore and DC, then I know we've reached the point of no return. At that point, snowy winters might be a thing of the past.

It might not happen with the 2001-30 averages, but it's certainly possible in the 2011-40 averages.

This is hyperbole. Why?

-DCA from 2000-01 through 2024-25 averaged 13”. Even if they were to have NO snow the next 5 winters, which of course is practically impossible since they’ve yet to have even one with 0”, they’d still average ~11” for 2001-30.

-DCA averaged 10.6” 2010-11 through 2024-25. If they were to have no snow the next 15 winters (of course nothing even close to that will happen), they’d still average 5.3” for 2011-40.

 So, averaging <4” in Baltimore and even at DCA would be impossible not only in 2001-30 but even in 2011-40. Even for DCA to average <6” in 2011-40, they’d have to average <1.4” the next 15 winters. Only 4 of the last 141 winters (3%) had <1.4”. Yes, 3 of those have been since 1997-8, but that’s still only 3 of the last 28 or 11%. So, I see virtually no way for DCA to even get down to 6” for 2011-40. Even getting it down to 7” would require the next 15 years to average only 3.4”. That’s highly unlikely. But if that high unlikelihood were to somehow happen, we’re talking 7” at DCA for 2011-40 vs you saying 4” is possible.

[snowman19]

15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. I suspect that's part of the reason we saw a very warm end to September across much of the CONUS.

This -AAM regime is extremely impressive. A 180 degree difference from what we were seeing last year at this time…

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

This is hyperbole. Why?

-DCA from 2000-01 through 2024-25 averaged 13”. Even if they were to have NO snow the next 5 winters, which of course is practically impossible since they’ve yet to have even one with 0”, they’d still average ~11” for 2001-30.

-DCA averaged 10.6” 2010-11 through 2024-25. If they were to have no snow the next 15 winters (of course nothing even close to that will happen), they’d still average 5.3” for 2011-40.

 So, averaging <4” in Baltimore and even at DCA would be impossible not only in 2001-30 but even in 2011-40. Even for DCA to average <6” in 2011-40, they’d have to average <1.4” the next 15 winters. Only 4 of the last 141 winters (3%) had <1.4”. Yes, 3 of those have been since 1997-8, but that’s still only 3 of the last 28 or 11%. So, I see virtually no way for DCA to even get down to 6” for 2011-40. Even getting it down to 7” would require the next 15 years to average only 3.4”. That’s highly unlikely. But if that high unlikelihood were to somehow happen, we’re talking 7” at DCA for 2011-40 vs you saying 4” is possible.

30 years averages will take longer to catch up with the shorter term changes. But DCA has only averaged  7.8” over the last 9 seasons.

We’ll have to see if the next decade declines a bit more or holds closer to the 7.8” figure. They had been at 17.4”for the previous 9 season period.

This is their first 9 year stretch with an average under 10”.  Their highest 9 year run was 29.9” back in 1912.
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	0.2	0.3	5.0	1.5	0.9	T	7.8
2024-2025	0.0	T	0.1	8.3	6.5	0.0	0.0	14.9
2023-2024	0.0	0.0	0.1	7.8	0.1	T	T	8.0
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	T	T	0.4	T	T	0.4
2021-2022	0.0	0.0	0.0	12.3	T	0.9	0.0	13.2
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	T	2.6	2.8	0.0	0.0	5.4
2019-2020	0.0	0.0	0.4	0.2	T	0.0	0.0	0.6
2018-2019	0.0	1.4	0.0	11.5	3.7	0.3	0.0	16.9
2017-2018	0.0	0.0	1.9	1.2	0.2	4.5	T	7.8
2016-2017	0.0	0.0	T	1.4	T	2.0	0.0	3.4

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	T	2.6	5.5	6.5	2.8	T	17.4
2015-2016	0.0	0.0	0.0	18.8	3.1	0.3	T	22.2
2014-2015	0.0	T	T	3.6	9.8	4.9	T	18.3
2013-2014	0.0	T	1.5	6.6	11.2	12.7	T	32.0
2012-2013	0.0	T	0.2	0.9	0.4	1.6	0.0	3.1
2011-2012	T	0.0	T	1.7	0.3	T	0.0	2.0
2010-2011	0.0	T	2.1	7.3	0.5	0.2	T	10.1
2009-2010	0.0	0.0	16.6	7.4	32.1	T	0.0	56.1
2008-2009	0.0	T	T	1.9	0.1	5.5	0.0	7.5
2007-2008	0.0	0.0	2.6	1.3	1.0	0.0	0.0	4.9

 

[donsutherland1]

17 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Once the average seasonal snowfall drops below 4 inches (about the current average in Charlotte) in places like Baltimore and DC, then I know we've reached the point of no return. At that point, snowy winters might be a thing of the past.

It might not happen with the 2001-30 averages, but it's certainly possible in the 2011-40 averages.

That's not likely to happen for decades. Even if Baltimore sees no snow from winter 2025-26 through 2039-40 (virtually certain not to be the case), the 30-season moving average would be 7.2" vs. the current 18.9" through 2024-2025. Through at least mid-century, there will likely be some snowy winters even as the long-term snowfall average generally declines. 

Although Washington, DC has likely transitioned into a lower snowfall regime and Baltimore to NYC are likely in the early stages of such a transition, the idea that snowy winters are a thing of the past is not likely to hold true through at least mid-century, if not longer. Such winters will likely grow less frequent as warming continues, but they won't disappear altogether. That outcome might not occur until global temperatures are 3°C above pre-industrial levels, which appears likely in the vicinity of 2100 (maybe a little earlier if some of the positive feedbacks e.g., Arctic cloud changes, etc. lead to a further acceleration in warming).

The transition for Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York City will likely be noisier (bigger rise, greater volatility) and perhaps a bit more extended e.g.. to 37.5° mean winter temperatures than it was for Washington, DC due to their closer proximity to cold source regions.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

True. I do think ridging ends up a bit less amplified than last year, but I still think we see cold get a bit further south than what it has. 

The CANSIPS would be a good winter for the NE....period.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

That's not likely to happen for decades. Even if Baltimore sees no snow from winter 2025-26 through 2039-40 (virtually certain not to be the case), the 30-season moving average would be 7.2" vs. the current 18.9" through 2024-2025. Through at least mid-century, there will likely be some snowy winters even as the long-term snowfall average generally declines. 

Although Washington, DC has likely transitioned into a lower snowfall regime and Baltimore to NYC are likely in the early stages of such a transition, the idea that snowy winters are a thing of the past is not likely to hold true through at least mid-century, if not longer. Such winters will likely grow less frequent as warming continues, but they won't disappear altogether. That outcome might not occur until global temperatures are 3°C above pre-industrial levels, which appears likely in the vicinity of 2100 (maybe a little earlier if some of the positive feedbacks e.g., Arctic cloud changes, etc. lead to a further acceleration in warming).

The transition for Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York City will likely be noisier (bigger rise, greater volatility) and perhaps a bit more extended e.g.. to 37.5° mean winter temperatures than it was for Washington, DC due to their closer proximity to cold source regions.

It's incredible how many people are incapable of nuanced thought...it has to be one extreme or the other. Either CC doesn't exist/won't impact winter, or "snowy seasons are a thing of the past". Either side loses credibility instantly with me. Jesus...accept the fact that CC is real and is impacting our wintrers, but it can still snow...both are true.

I should focus my practice on Dialectical Behavioral Therapy for weather folks...I'd make a killing.