2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

12 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Once the average seasonal snowfall drops below 4 inches (about the current average in Charlotte) in places like Baltimore and DC, then I know we've reached the point of no return. At that point, snowy winters might be a thing of the past.

It might not happen with the 2001-30 averages, but it's certainly possible in the 2011-40 averages.

This is hyperbole. Why?

-DCA from 2000-01 through 2024-25 averaged 13”. Even if they were to have NO snow the next 5 winters, which of course is practically impossible since they’ve yet to have even one with 0”, they’d still average ~11” for 2001-30.

-DCA averaged 10.6” 2010-11 through 2024-25. If they were to have no snow the next 15 winters (of course nothing even close to that will happen), they’d still average 5.3” for 2011-40.

 So, averaging <4” in Baltimore and even at DCA would be impossible not only in 2001-30 but even in 2011-40. Even for DCA to average <6” in 2011-40, they’d have to average <1.4” the next 15 winters. Only 4 of the last 141 winters (3%) had <1.4”. Yes, 3 of those have been since 1997-8, but that’s still only 3 of the last 28 or 11%. So, I see virtually no way for DCA to even get down to 6” for 2011-40. Even getting it down to 7” would require the next 15 years to average only 3.4”. That’s highly unlikely. But if that high unlikelihood were to somehow happen, we’re talking 7” at DCA for 2011-40 vs you saying 4” is possible.