snowman19 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 2019-2020 was pretty damn positive. I never said I think we are going to have a +EPO winter, I simply pointed out that we haven’t had a wall to wall +EPO winter since 11-12. Not sure why you think I was implying that for this winter, which I certainly am not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 6 hours ago Author Share Posted 6 hours ago 31 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I never said I think we are going to have a +EPO winter, I simply pointed out that we haven’t had a wall to wall +EPO winter since 11-12. Not sure why you think I was implying that for this winter, which I certainly am not No, I wasn't implying that.....the implication was as stated....we are due for more aggressive regresson in other areas. I think wall-to-wall anything is difficult to pull off....2011-2012 did it, but February was close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 6 hours ago Author Share Posted 6 hours ago 2020-2021 was actually a pretty positive EPO, too...just wasn't that warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 12-13: ENSO neutral 13-14: ENSO neutral 14-15: warm neutral/weak el nino 15-16: super el nino 16-17: weak la nina 17-18: weak la nina 18-19: weak el nino 19-20: warm neutral/weak el nino 20-21: moderate la nina 21-22: moderate la nina 22-23: moderate la nina (but dissipating) 23-24: strong el nino 24-25: ENSO neutral I count 5 la nina years, 3 el nino years (2 strong ones), 2 borderline warm neutral/weak el nino years, and and 3 ENSO neutral years. If you want to make it 15, then you've got your 7 la nina years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago 48 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: 12-13: ENSO neutral 13-14: ENSO neutral 14-15: warm neutral/weak el nino 15-16: super el nino 16-17: weak la nina 17-18: weak la nina 18-19: weak el nino 19-20: warm neutral/weak el nino 20-21: moderate la nina 21-22: moderate la nina 22-23: moderate la nina (but dissipating) 23-24: strong el nino 24-25: ENSO neutral I count 5 la nina years, 3 el nino years (2 strong ones), 2 borderline warm neutral/weak el nino years, and and 3 ENSO neutral years. If you want to make it 15, then you've got your 7 la nina years. I looked back to 2016-2017....so not 10 years yet, but it will be because we aren't having an El Nino this season. I will give you 2018-2019 as a weak El Nino, but not 2019-2020...that was neutral. And if you are going to consider 2018-2019 El Nino, which is fine, then you have to consider 2024-2025 weak La Nina. Lets be consistent here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2024-25 was mostly neutral and very very borderline weak Nina. One could make a case in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: 12-13: ENSO neutral 13-14: ENSO neutral 14-15: warm neutral/weak el nino 15-16: super el nino 16-17: weak la nina 17-18: weak la nina 18-19: weak el nino 19-20: warm neutral/weak el nino 20-21: moderate la nina 21-22: moderate la nina 22-23: moderate la nina (but dissipating) 23-24: strong el nino 24-25: ENSO neutral I count 5 la nina years, 3 el nino years (2 strong ones), 2 borderline warm neutral/weak el nino years, and and 3 ENSO neutral years. If you want to make it 15, then you've got your 7 la nina years. 24-25 was weak La Niña IMO 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We are "due" for a lot of things right now, but +EPO wouldn't be the most prominent item on my list. I mean...we have had 2 -WPO seasons over the past decade.....I haven't had one normal or above snowfall season in a decade. I won't include temps because we all know why that is. We have had 7 La Nina seasons out of 10 years, and 1 El Nino...and the El Nino season was still largely negated by the prominent cool ENSO hemispheric base state. This is interesting wrt snow because you are at a safe enough latitude that mild winters can easily be snowier than avg. What first order station are you closest to for temps, ORH? In terms of "being due". For here, i would roughly consider the era of above avg snow dominance to be from 2002-2015 and below avg snow dominance 2016-present, however the above was much more above than the below has been below. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: This is interesting wrt snow because you are at a safe enough latitude that mild winters can easily be snowier than avg. What first order station are you closest to for temps, ORH? In terms of "being due". For here, i would roughly consider the era of above avg snow dominance to be from 2002-2015 and below avg snow dominance 2016-present, however the above was much more above than the below has been below. KLWM It's a combo meal of bad patterns and bad luck...Chris is right that the PAC het has caused supression and cutters....but we have also had some bad breaks on a regional scale, and for me locally...we have had a couple of seasons that performed well regionally, but my specific area was still boned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 23 minutes ago, Terpeast said: 2024-25 was mostly neutral and very very borderline weak Nina. One could make a case in either direction. Yeah, 24-25 was, in terms of la nina, what 14-15 and 19-20 was for el nino. All are borderline cases, depending on threshold. At least with 14-15 and 19-20, you generally had a basewide warm neutral, maybe weak el nino (depending on what your threshold is, 0.4, 0.5, 3-trimonthlies, 5-trimonthlies, etc). With 24-25, you had a la nina in 3.4 and an el nino in 1+2. Heck, the 1+2 in 24-25 may have had a warmer anomoly than the warm neutral years of 14-15 and 19-20. 24-25 might be the hardest year to classify. Whether you consider it neutral or la nina, it really doesn't fit either in a traditional sense. No other year in history had a 3.4 and 1+2 as disjointed as 24-25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 35 minutes ago, Terpeast said: 2024-25 was mostly neutral and very very borderline weak Nina. One could make a case in either direction. Not really debatable that it's a weak La Nina unless you soley rely on the archaic ONI. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 5 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Yeah, 24-25 was, in terms of la nina, what 14-15 and 19-20 was for el nino. All are borderline cases, depending on threshold. At least with 14-15 and 19-20, you generally had a basewide warm neutral, maybe weak el nino (depending on what your threshold is, 0.4, 0.5, 3-trimonthlies, 5-trimonthlies, etc). With 24-25, you had a la nina in 3.4 and an el nino in 1+2. Heck, the 1+2 in 24-25 may have had a warmer anomoly than the warm neutral years of 14-15 and 19-20. 24-25 might be the hardest year to classify. Whether you consider it neutral or la nina, it really doesn't fit either in a traditional sense. No other year in history had a 3.4 and 1+2 as disjointed as 24-25. No...it wasn't. You keep asserting this, but check your facts. The MEI briefly touched 0.5 for one bi-monthlyh period and the RONI peaked at .24 in OND. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 2024-2025 peaked with a RONI of -1.12 and an MEI of 1..borderline moderate. It was certainly a La Nina, again, unless you are tethering yourself to the ONI, which is ill-advised. It's important to be wholistic considering CC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: 2024-25 was mostly neutral and very very borderline weak Nina. One could make a case in either direction. Based on RONI, 2024-5 was a moderate La Niña: ASO 2024 -0.75 SON 2024 -0.81 OND 2024 -0.92 NDJ 2024 -1.07 DJF 2025 -1.12 JFM 2025 -0.89 FMA 2025 -0.67 Related to this, the Australian BoM has switched from ONI to RONI for its official model forecasts: says we’re already in a weak La Niña though it will weaken starting in Nov: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 57 minutes ago, GaWx said: Based on RONI, 2024-5 was a moderate La Niña: ASO 2024 -0.75 SON 2024 -0.81 OND 2024 -0.92 NDJ 2024 -1.07 DJF 2025 -1.12 JFM 2025 -0.89 FMA 2025 -0.67 Related to this, the Australian BoM has switched from ONI to RONI for its official model forecasts: says we’re already in a weak La Niña though it will weaken starting in Nov: I wish CPC would do this...CC has exacerbated this disconnect to the point where I make my own intensity composites now and don't even use CPC. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: This is interesting wrt snow because you are at a safe enough latitude that mild winters can easily be snowier than avg. What first order station are you closest to for temps, ORH? In terms of "being due". For here, i would roughly consider the era of above avg snow dominance to be from 2002-2015 and below avg snow dominance 2016-present, however the above was much more above than the below has been below. Kind of the same for here years wise. Above averaged 9" above for that duration 02-15, 16-now is 3" below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Does anyone know when the MEI will update? They said it was going to be late in June and just haven't updated since June 10...odd. I have just ingnored it this season, which sucks beause I usually like to use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 2 minutes ago Share Posted 2 minutes ago The unptecedented for the 2nd half of the year (since MJO records started in 1974) very lengthy clockwise dominated track continues with still no end yet in sight. It started Sept 1st and is projected to continue at least through Oct 12th, which would mean 6 weeks long! GEFS: clockwise at least through Oct 14th EPS: clockwise at least through Oct 12th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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