2025-2026 ENSO

[anthonymm]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I was happy to get the PNA mismatch potential last October from the early MJO indicator back in October which was a key part of the seasonal 500 mb pattern. Then the under 4” snow last December around NYC signaled another below average snowfall season.

I tend to score long range seasonal forecasts like how the batting average is regarded in baseball. All you need to have a shot at the batting title in any given year is to get a hit only around 33% of the time.

So if you get at least 1 aspect of the 3 key elements including 500mb pattern, P-types and amounts with the storm track, and the temperatures correct then I will consider it a good showing from seasonal outlook. 

 

 

December snowfall is I think the stat best correlated with overall snow for the winter in nyc. It's very rare to get a snowy December and have the rest of the winter be a dud (has this ever happened ?), and also rare to have a snow free December result in an above average winter (maybe only 15-16?). 

[mitchnick]

11 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

https://xkcd.com/1732

Per ice core samples at NP. Now we're even. Please, no more cc talk in this thread. Tia

[Cobalt]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Per ice core samples at NP. Now we're even. Please, no more cc talk in this thread. Tia

What relevance does this have in relation to the graph Jenkins posted? To get back to the topic at hand, his graph shows very clearly why DC's snowfall has trended downwards since the late 1800s. Global temperatures are up, and in the case of Washington DC, that means winter temperatures are up and snowfall is down. Seeing as there is no reason to believe that global, and therefore local winter temperatures will trend down in the coming decades, snowfall averages will continue to decrease. It's literally that simple. A graph extending back to 500mya has no relevance in regards to discussion about ongoing temperature and snowfall trends, other than to perpetuate your agenda.

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, anthonymm said:

December snowfall is I think the stat best correlated with overall snow for the winter in nyc. It's very rare to get a snowy December and have the rest of the winter be a dud (has this ever happened ?), and also rare to have a snow free December result in an above average winter (maybe only 15-16?). 

Any snowy Dec (8”+ ) followed by dud? I’ll check now:

 Indeed, your idea verifies well! I have to go all of the way back to 1945-6 to find the last snowy Dec not having 16”+ Jan+! Dec had 15.6” and then they had only 12.1” Jan+.

-Then I have to go back to 1926-7: 11.7” Dec; 10.6” Jan+

-1912-3: 11.4”; 3.1”

-1902-3: 14.4”; 14.3”

 That’s it going back to 1869-70. Just 4 winters out of 43 (9%) with 8”+ in Dec failed to get 16” Jan+.

 For the other 113 winters (<8” in Dec): 46 (41%) Jan+ had <16” Jan+ 

 *So, only 1 in 11 Jan+ were <16” when Dec 8”+ vs just over 4 in 10 when Dec 8”+! That’s a pretty strong correlation.*

Longterm avg for is Jan+ is 22”.

————

*Edit: I counted 22 Jan+ <10”. 21 of those were when Dec was <8”. So, whereas 21 of the 113 (19%) when Dec <8” had Jan+ with <10”, a mere 1 of the 43 (2%) when Dec 8”+ had Jan+ with <10”! So, 2% vs 19%, meaning an even stronger indication of the correlation between Dec and Jan+ snow at NYC.

[snowman19]

Bottom line, even though there wasn’t a ridiculous amount of arctic sea ice loss this spring/summer/early met fall, our starting point at the beginning of melt season was so low, we are still finishing at record low levels this year. God knows how many years it will take, when/if we get back to normal. Whether the arctic sea ice loss is related to SSTs or solar or both is anyone’s guess

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, anthonymm said:

December snowfall is I think the stat best correlated with overall snow for the winter in nyc. It's very rare to get a snowy December and have the rest of the winter be a dud (has this ever happened ?), and also rare to have a snow free December result in an above average winter (maybe only 15-16?). 

I can’t think of any Nina season in my life growing up on LI that was any good without at least one decent Dec event. 2017-18 had the 1/4 blizzard that counted as our early event. 

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I can’t think of any Nina season in my life growing up on LI that was any good without at least one decent Dec event. 2017-18 had the 1/4 blizzard that counted as our early event. 

As a general rule with La Niña winters, if there’s below average snow in November and December, they end up being dud winters. Yes, there are exceptions, but for the most part, November and December set the tone for the rest of winter with a La Niña 

[brooklynwx99]

no chatter about NPAC SSTs lately? PDO rose quite a bit in the last couple of weeks. that's also a ton of warm water off the WC

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, Cobalt said:

What relevance does this have in relation to the graph Jenkins posted? To get back to the topic at hand, his graph shows very clearly why DC's snowfall has trended downwards since the late 1800s. Global temperatures are up, and in the case of Washington DC, that means winter temperatures are up and snowfall is down. Seeing as there is no reason to believe that global, and therefore local winter temperatures will trend down in the coming decades, snowfall averages will continue to decrease. It's literally that simple. A graph extending back to 500mya has no relevance in regards to discussion about ongoing temperature and snowfall trends, other than to perpetuate your agenda.

 

I really don't care about Dc, it's snowfall history or anything else with this conversation.ENSO ONLY PLEASE.

[Cobalt]

Just now, mitchnick said:

I really don't care about Dc, it's snowfall history or anything else with this conversation.ENSO ONLY PLEASE.

I get this much but then that makes the graph you responded with even more baffling and confusing.

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

no chatter about NPAC SSTs lately? PDO rose quite a bit in the last couple of weeks. that's also a ton of warm water off the WC

Indeed, August rose substantially from July’s record low of -4.12 to -3.23. It appears to still be in a rising trend for now.

[anthonymm]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

I can’t think of any Nina season in my life growing up on LI that was any good without at least one decent Dec event. 2017-18 had the 1/4 blizzard that counted as our early event. 

Yup ninas are supposed to have good Decembers. If you dont have a good December in a nina the rest of the season looks grim.

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Yeah, I’ve been reading discussions elsewhere regarding CC’s general effect on tropical seasons: fewer storms but stronger extremes. Well, we’ve had the stronger extremes with a whopping 11 cat 5s just since 2016! Compare that to the prior 11 cat 5s occurring over a 27 year period meaning a near tripling of their frequency. But what’s not yet evident is the drop in the avg # of storms as there have been 14+ every year since 2016 with 168 storms 2016-24 or an avg of a whopping 19 storms/year! Compare that to only an avg of 14 storms the prior 9 years and 15 during the 9 years before that:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes

[MJO812]

2013 -2014 winter is an analog for many forecasters.  

[Daniel Boone]

8 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

no chatter about NPAC SSTs lately? PDO rose quite a bit in the last couple of weeks. that's also a ton of warm water off the WC

Yeah, that NEPAC Look would help augment and support a +PNA this Winter . Probably +TNH Episodes as well , looking at the whole Pac Profile. If we get some more improvement in the NATL we may get a better Winter Snow wise than most expect. 

[Mercurial]

43 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, that NEPAC Look would help augment and support a +PNA this Winter . Probably +TNH Episodes as well , looking at the whole Pac Profile. If we get some more improvement in the NATL we may get a better Winter Snow wise than most expect. 

The NEPAC situation is a complete disaster out here lol.  Maybe the warmth will mean a more active Pac jet at least.  

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I really don't care about Dc, it's snowfall history or anything else with this conversation.ENSO ONLY PLEASE.

This is also a general winter and seasonal forecast thread. My post about DC snowfall was only introduced when a poster asked me about it. You even liked the post. 

The way any ENSO state is being expressed in our sensible weather has been heavily influenced by the sudden jump in SSTs and global temperatures. So the WPAC warm pool along with other basins has been becoming a greater factor at times than ENSO.

We saw this many times in recent years when El Niños in 18-19, 19-20, and 23-24 were heavily influenced by events in the WPAC and IO. So just looking at a one dimensional slice of ENSO east of the Dateline has become less relevant than it used to be.

The first two winters couldn’t couple and we got more of a Niña background state. 23-24 had unusually strong WPAC and IO forcing with the record SSTs there and the typical El Niño cold trough in the East wasn’t able to develop. 

This past winter there was talk of a 13-14 analog. But the Pacific Jet was much stronger so places like Chicago had one of their least snowy winters instead of a 13-14 outcome. Plus the 850 mb cold pool was the smallest on record for the Northern Hemisphere preventing the cold trough formation in the Great Lakes like 13-14.

 

 

 

[jm1220]

16 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

no chatter about NPAC SSTs lately? PDO rose quite a bit in the last couple of weeks. that's also a ton of warm water off the WC

Hoping that continues for sure. Hopefully we get a few more recurving typhoons to keep that water off Japan cooling down.

[bluewave]

The record warm SST pattern from Japan to California and across the entire Atlantic mid-latitudes is a function of the continuous 500mb ridge which has been in place this summer. So it’s just a reflection of the higher pressures and lighter winds creating record SSTs below.

My guess is that this mid-latitude warmth has created the current lull in tropical activity in the Atlantic with cooler tropical departures relative to further north. The thing to watch for later in the season is the potential for close in development with the record Gulf SSTs.

While we are on track to finish with less ACE than last season, it only takes one with hurricanes. Hoping the Gulf can catch a break from the record run recent years. But we always have wait and see what happens since late September and October have been so active in recent years. 
 

 

 

[GaWx]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The record warm SST pattern from Japan to California and across the entire Atlantic mid-latitudes is a function of the continuous 500mb ridge which has been in place this summer. So it’s just a reflection of the higher pressures and lighter winds creating record SSTs below.

My guess is that this mid-latitude warmth has created the current lull in tropical activity in the Atlantic with cooler tropical departures relative to further north. The thing to watch for later in the season is the potential for close in development with the record Gulf SSTs.

While we are on track to finish with less ACE than last season, it only takes one with hurricanes. Hoping the Gulf can catch a break from the record run recent years. But we always have wait and see what happens since late September and October have been so active in recent years. 
 

 

 

Chris,

 What are your thoughts about what met. Travis Roberts said about the E US winter potential for cold/trough similar to Jan of 2014 in the video (linked by Anthony above) due to the very warm water in the NE Pacific that’s similar to 2014? My concern is that 2014 didn’t also have that very warm water going back to Japan thus meaning it isn’t an apples to apples comparison. I thought that the 2014 warm water was heavily concentrated in the NE Pacific and thus was the primary cause for that Jan 2014 cold E US. But in contrast now, the warm water isn’t just concentrated in the NE Pacific. Related to this, the August 2013 PDO wasn’t nearly as negative with it at -1.56 vs August 2025’s -3.23:

 

[donsutherland1]

24 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Chris,

 What are your thoughts about what met. Travis Roberts said about the E US winter potential for cold/trough similar to Jan of 2014 in the video (linked by Anthony above) due to the very warm water in the NE Pacific that’s similar to 2014? My concern is that 2014 didn’t also have that very warm water going back to Japan thus meaning it isn’t an apples to apples comparison. I thought that the 2014 warm water was heavily concentrated in the NE Pacific and thus was the primary cause for that Jan 2014 cold E US. But in contrast now, the warm water isn’t just concentrated in the NE Pacific. Related to this, the August 2013 PDO wasn’t nearly as negative with it at -1.56 vs August 2025’s -3.23:

 

Assuming that the SSTs will drive the pattern, he would need big changes from what is forecast for Winter 2025-26 to be similar to that for Winter 2013-14. The core of the warm anomalies would need to shift much farther east.

2013-14

Current Forecast (ECMWF):

Current Forecast (CFSv2):

[kazimirkai]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Chris,

 What are your thoughts about what met. Travis Roberts said about the E US winter potential for cold/trough similar to Jan of 2014 in the video (linked by Anthony above) due to the very warm water in the NE Pacific that’s similar to 2014? My concern is that 2014 didn’t also have that very warm water going back to Japan thus meaning it isn’t an apples to apples comparison. I thought that the 2014 warm water was heavily concentrated in the NE Pacific and thus was the primary cause for that Jan 2014 cold E US. But in contrast now, the warm water isn’t just concentrated in the NE Pacific. Related to this, the August 2013 PDO wasn’t nearly as negative with it at -1.56 vs August 2025’s -3.23:

 

I don't understand the value in using a single season as an analog. Wouldn't the entire earth have to be exactly the same for the season to play out in the same way? Why don't these ppl just use an average?

[GaWx]

26 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

I don't understand the value in using a single season as an analog. Wouldn't the entire earth have to be exactly the same for the season to play out in the same way? Why don't these ppl just use an average?

 Forecasting a cold winter in the E US has at least short term value to the forecaster in that it sells clicks and likes and also is what even some pros are biased toward. That being said, I don’t know anything about met. Travis Roberts’ record and possible biases. Does anyone here have any info about that? Has he forecasted warm winters before? Whether or not he has would say a lot.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, GaWx said:

Yeah, I’ve been reading discussions elsewhere regarding CC’s general effect on tropical seasons: fewer storms but stronger extremes. Well, we’ve had the stronger extremes with a whopping 11 cat 5s just since 2016! Compare that to the prior 11 cat 5s occurring over a 27 year period meaning a near tripling of their frequency. But what’s not yet evident is the drop in the avg # of storms as there have been 14+ every year since 2016 with 168 storms 2016-24 or an avg of a whopping 19 storms/year! Compare that to only an avg of 14 storms the prior 9 years and 15 during the 9 years before that:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes

Mirrors impact on winter storms. As a blogger, I like it....only care to write about big fish.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, kazimirkai said:

I don't understand the value in using a single season as an analog. Wouldn't the entire earth have to be exactly the same for the season to play out in the same way? Why don't these ppl just use an average?

I can see in a practical sense, conversationally in an effort to convery how you feel the season will evolve, since most weather circles are privy with how each analog season behaved in terms of sensible weather. But as far as issuing a seasonal forecast, I agree 100%...my methodology is to use a composite and attempt to convey the element from each analog season that will be similar to the current season. This is important because one season may be a fantastic analog in one sense, but there are bound to be ways in which it is not..this harkens to what you were saying about the challenge in finding a replica season.

Good luck-

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Assuming that the SSTs will drive the pattern, he would need big changes from what is forecast for Winter 2025-26 to be similar to that for Winter 2013-14. The core of the warm anomalies would need to shift much farther east.

2013-14

Current Forecast (ECMWF):

Current Forecast (CFSv2):

A ton has to shift for 13-14 to be a good analog. Besides the anemic Atlantic tropical season, low arctic sea ice and the cold North Atlantic SSTA, I see very little matching up. No -IOD, as you pointed out the PDO is so far from a match it’s not funny, that was a Victoria mode (basically +PDO alignment) back in 2013, it was +QBO, solar/geomag was rising off of a solar minimum, no La Niña back then; cold-neutral, no -PMM.
 

Since the PDO cooling over the last 2 weeks in the northwest PAC was brought up yesterday, yes it cooled, but it started cooling at over staggering +11F SST anomalies there and as has already been stated by @bluewave those record warm anomalies are very deep in the subsurface. Here is the latest OISST, look at how insanely warm the anomalies still are: 

[anthonymm]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A ton has to shift for 13-14 to be a good analog. Besides the anemic Atlantic tropical season, low arctic sea ice and the cold North Atlantic SSTA, I see very little matching up. No -IOD, as you pointed out the PDO is so far from a match it’s not funny, that was a Victoria mode (basically +PDO alignment) back in 2013, it was +QBO, solar/geomag was rising off of a solar minimum, no La Niña back then; cold-neutral, no -PMM.
 

Since the PDO cooling over the last 2 weeks in the northwest PAC was brought up yesterday, yes it cooled, but it started cooling at over staggering +11F SST anomalies there and as has already been stated by @bluewave those record warm anomalies are very deep in the subsurface. Here is the latest OISST, look at home insanely warm the anomalies still are: 

So basically if we cant cool the western pac down say goodbye to snowy winters in the east?

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A ton has to shift for 13-14 to be a good analog. Besides the anemic Atlantic tropical season, low arctic sea ice and the cold North Atlantic, I see very little matching up. No -IOD, as you pointed out the PDO is so far from a match it’s not funny, that was a Victoria mode (basically +PDO alignment) back in 2013, it was +QBO, solar/geomag was rising off of a solar minimum, no La Niña back then; cold-neutral, no -PMM.
 

Since the PDO cooling over the last 2 weeks in the northwest PAC was brought up yesterday, yes it cooled, but it started cooling at over staggering +11F SST anomalies there and as has already been stated by @bluewave those record warm anomalies are very deep in the subsurface. Here is the latest OISST, look at home insanely warm the anomalies still are: 

First of all, I think the trend concerning the PDO is what is of most relevence with respect to sensible weather, not the absolute value. Secondly, the RONI is nearly dead-nuts on with 2013....and finally, I'm not sure the solar and statosphere differences are really that big of a deal. First of all, that was a very strongly +AO/NAO season, so that wasn't the main hemispheric driver, anyway. Additionally, I have written in great detail about how an easterly QBO near solar max isn't as hostile to episodes of high latitude blocking as some seem to think. We are probably going to see more arctic blocking than we did that year.

Replica season? No....western Pacific is less favorable and CC has continued...but I see no reason why it can't be included in varuious seasonal composites, as it has been, and continues to be.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

So basically if we cant cool the western pac down say goodbye to snowy winters in the east?

I think if you want a big winter, the WPO is going to have be less severely positive than it has been....like 2017, for instance...which I believe may be the case.