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2025-2026 ENSO


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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I was happy to get the PNA mismatch potential last October from the early MJO indicator back in October which was a key part of the seasonal 500 mb pattern. Then the under 4” snow last December around NYC signaled another below average snowfall season.

I tend to score long range seasonal forecasts like how the batting average is regarded in baseball. All you need to have a shot at the batting title in any given year is to get a hit only around 33% of the time.

So if you get at least 1 aspect of the 3 key elements including 500mb pattern, P-types and amounts with the storm track, and the temperatures correct then I will consider it a good showing from seasonal outlook. 


 

 

December snowfall is I think the stat best correlated with overall snow for the winter in nyc. It's very rare to get a snowy December and have the rest of the winter be a dud (has this ever happened ?), and also rare to have a snow free December result in an above average winter (maybe only 15-16?). 

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7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Per ice core samples at NP. Now we're even. Please, no more cc talk in this thread. Tia

960x0.jpg

What relevance does this have in relation to the graph Jenkins posted? To get back to the topic at hand, his graph shows very clearly why DC's snowfall has trended downwards since the late 1800s. Global temperatures are up, and in the case of Washington DC, that means winter temperatures are up and snowfall is down. Seeing as there is no reason to believe that global, and therefore local winter temperatures will trend down in the coming decades, snowfall averages will continue to decrease. It's literally that simple. A graph extending back to 500mya has no relevance in regards to discussion about ongoing temperature and snowfall trends, other than to perpetuate your agenda.

 

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2 hours ago, anthonymm said:

December snowfall is I think the stat best correlated with overall snow for the winter in nyc. It's very rare to get a snowy December and have the rest of the winter be a dud (has this ever happened ?), and also rare to have a snow free December result in an above average winter (maybe only 15-16?). 

Any snowy Dec (8”+ ) followed by dud? I’ll check now:

 Indeed, your idea verifies well! I have to go all of the way back to 1945-6 to find the last snowy Dec not having 16”+ Jan+! Dec had 15.6” and then they had only 12.1” Jan+.

-Then I have to go back to 1926-7: 11.7” Dec; 10.6” Jan+

-1912-3: 11.4”; 3.1”

-1902-3: 14.4”; 14.3”

 That’s it going back to 1869-70. Just 4 winters out of 43 (9%) with 8”+ in Dec failed to get 16” Jan+.

 For the other 113 winters (<8” in Dec): 46 (41%) Jan+ had <16” Jan+ 

 *So, only 1 in 11 Jan+ were <16” when Dec 8”+ vs just over 4 in 10 when Dec 8”+! That’s a pretty strong correlation.*

Longterm avg for is Jan+ is 22”.

————

*Edit: I counted 22 Jan+ <10”. 21 of those were when Dec was <8”. So, whereas 21 of the 113 (19%) when Dec <8” had Jan+ with <10”, a mere 1 of the 43 (2%) when Dec 8”+ had Jan+ with <10”! So, 2% vs 19%, meaning an even stronger indication of the correlation between Dec and Jan+ snow at NYC.

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Bottom line, even though there wasn’t a ridiculous amount of arctic sea ice loss this spring/summer/early met fall, our starting point at the beginning of melt season was so low, we are still finishing at record low levels this year. God knows how many years it will take, when/if we get back to normal. Whether the arctic sea ice loss is related to SSTs or solar or both is anyone’s guess

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3 hours ago, anthonymm said:

December snowfall is I think the stat best correlated with overall snow for the winter in nyc. It's very rare to get a snowy December and have the rest of the winter be a dud (has this ever happened ?), and also rare to have a snow free December result in an above average winter (maybe only 15-16?). 

I can’t think of any Nina season in my life growing up on LI that was any good without at least one decent Dec event. 2017-18 had the 1/4 blizzard that counted as our early event. 

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7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I can’t think of any Nina season in my life growing up on LI that was any good without at least one decent Dec event. 2017-18 had the 1/4 blizzard that counted as our early event. 

As a general rule with La Niña winters, if there’s below average snow in November and December, they end up being dud winters. Yes, there are exceptions, but for the most part, November and December set the tone for the rest of winter with a La Niña 

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3 hours ago, Cobalt said:

What relevance does this have in relation to the graph Jenkins posted? To get back to the topic at hand, his graph shows very clearly why DC's snowfall has trended downwards since the late 1800s. Global temperatures are up, and in the case of Washington DC, that means winter temperatures are up and snowfall is down. Seeing as there is no reason to believe that global, and therefore local winter temperatures will trend down in the coming decades, snowfall averages will continue to decrease. It's literally that simple. A graph extending back to 500mya has no relevance in regards to discussion about ongoing temperature and snowfall trends, other than to perpetuate your agenda.

 

I really don't care about Dc, it's snowfall history or anything else with this conversation.ENSO ONLY PLEASE.

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10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

no chatter about NPAC SSTs lately? PDO rose quite a bit in the last couple of weeks. that's also a ton of warm water off the WC

crw_sstamean_global.png.c56dfe4730216a584c823ffa7e48949c.pngcrw_ssta_change15_global.png.9e53fe5ba50142cadc29cdc85fcf7115.png

Indeed, August rose substantially from July’s record low of -4.12 to -3.23. It appears to still be in a rising trend for now.

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

I can’t think of any Nina season in my life growing up on LI that was any good without at least one decent Dec event. 2017-18 had the 1/4 blizzard that counted as our early event. 

Yup ninas are supposed to have good Decembers. If you dont have a good December in a nina the rest of the season looks grim.

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13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Yeah, I’ve been reading discussions elsewhere regarding CC’s general effect on tropical seasons: fewer storms but stronger extremes. Well, we’ve had the stronger extremes with a whopping 11 cat 5s just since 2016! Compare that to the prior 11 cat 5s occurring over a 27 year period meaning a near tripling of their frequency. But what’s not yet evident is the drop in the avg # of storms as there have been 14+ every year since 2016 with 168 storms 2016-24 or an avg of a whopping 19 storms/year! Compare that to only an avg of 14 storms the prior 9 years and 15 during the 9 years before that:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes

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