snowman19 Posted yesterday at 02:56 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:56 PM 10 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Perhaps the real difference between this year and last year is Nino 1+2. Last year, we had moderate, borderline strong el nino conditions in 1+2, a continuation of an el nino in that region from the 2023-24 el nino. This is why I don't consider last year to be an el nino. I consider it to be ENSO neutral, and even then, it's not a traditional ENSO neutral. A la nina in 3.4 and an el nino in 1+2 is very rare. Recent readings of Nino 1+2 is near 0, showing that the el nino that started in mid-2023 in the region has dissipated. So if we do get la nina conditions this year, it would be a true la nina, unlike last year. Sorry but I totally disagree. There is a reason why Nino and Nina events are measured/defined by what happens in region 3.4 regardless of what 1+2 or 4 or 3 do. I consider last winter to be a weak La Niña. A late-bloomer weak Nina maybe but a weak Nina nonetheless. I know Ray @40/70 Benchmark does too 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonymm Posted yesterday at 03:14 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:14 PM 22 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: although I didn't like the results, I would run the 500mb pattern back in a heartbeat. that winter was a clinic on how to get the least amount of snow with favorable 500mb patterns We always find ways to avoid getting snowstorms in the 2020s. It's like nature is overcorrecting massively for the snowy 2000s-2010s. I really think no matter what kinda 500 mb pattern we get we aren't gonna get a >30" winter for the next few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted yesterday at 04:25 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:25 PM 1 hour ago, anthonymm said: We always find ways to avoid getting snowstorms in the 2020s. It's like nature is overcorrecting massively for the snowy 2000s-2010s. I really think no matter what kinda 500 mb pattern we get we aren't gonna get a >30" winter for the next few years. i earnestly believe that some of what's been occurring for the last few years is regression to the mean that 20 year stretch was insane... NYC averaged 34" of snow from 2002-03 to 2020-21. that was not going to last 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonymm Posted yesterday at 05:30 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:30 PM 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: i earnestly believe that some of what's been occurring for the last few years is regression to the mean that 20 year stretch was insane... NYC averaged 34" of snow from 2002-03 to 2020-21. that was not going to last Agreed, but the reversion is rather extreme. I mean c'mon: 2021-2022: 17.9" 2022-2023: 2.3" 2023-2024: 7.5" 2024-2025: 12.9 " (despite the sustained cold). That streak is more anomalous in my opinion than the snowy 2010s pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted yesterday at 05:34 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:34 PM 3 minutes ago, anthonymm said: Agreed, but the reversion is rather extreme. I mean c'mon: 2021-2022: 17.9" 2022-2023: 2.3" 2023-2024: 7.5" 2024-2025: 12.9 " (despite the sustained cold). That streak is more anomalous in my opinion than the snowy 2010s pattern. is it really? we had four 50"+ winters out of six from 2009-10 to 2014-15. it was ridiculous we also had similarly crappy stretches in the 70s-90s, we just had a lot more 10-15" winters than the single digit ones (not all that much better IMO) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted yesterday at 05:51 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:51 PM 17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: is it really? we had four 50"+ winters out of six from 2009-10 to 2014-15. it was ridiculous we also had similarly crappy stretches in the 70s-90s, we just had a lot more 10-15" winters than the single digit ones (not all that much better IMO) According to where you are a bit too, because 23/24 i had 28.75" while he had much less and we both live in the tri-state. Snow is always more location dependant and someone always is in a screw zone. I got this storm, he missed it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted yesterday at 05:52 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:52 PM For purposes of analysis, I compared the Winter 2009-10 through 2014-15 period to the Winter 2021-22 through 2024-25 period on a standardized basis. In terms of average deviation, the snowier set was 0.95 standard deviations above the historic winter 1869-70 through 2024-25 baseline. The latter set was an average of 1.20 standard deviations below the baseline. Winter 2011-12 was the culprit that reduced the average deviation from normal for the snowy winters. Excluding that winter, the average deviation would have been 1.41 standard deviations from the historic baseline. Note: These are Central Park figures. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted yesterday at 06:08 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:08 PM 3 hours ago, anthonymm said: We always find ways to avoid getting snowstorms in the 2020s. It's like nature is overcorrecting massively for the snowy 2000s-2010s. I really think no matter what kinda 500 mb pattern we get we aren't gonna get a >30" winter for the next few years. While I suspect that a transition toward structurally lower snowfall is underway from a warming climate, there is a lot of internal variability involved with seasonal snowfall. By the mid-2030s, if the structural decline is underway, Central Park would likely see its 30-season moving average reach or fall below 20" per year. In the meantime, here are some records for seasonal snowfall droughts: Most consecutive seasons with < 10": 2, 2022-23 through 2023-24 Most consecutive seasons with < 20": 6, 1949-50 through 1954-55 Most consecutive seasons with < 30": 15, 1978-79 through 1992-93 Note: There were some big storms during the 15-season snow drought, i.e., the 1979 President's Day snowstorm, the 1983 Megalopolis Blizzard, and the 1993 superstorm. Finally, although they are not common, there have been some very cold winters with low snowfall. Winter 1900-01 had a mean temperature of 31.9° with seasonal snowfall of just 9.1". Winter 1871-72 had a mean temperature of 29.4° with seasonal snowfall of 14.4". Overall, there have been five winters with a winter mean temperature < 32° with less than 20" of snow. Below is a scatter diagram of all winters. Cold/Dry winters are highlighted in red. Winters 2021-22 through 2024-25 are highlighted in brown. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted yesterday at 06:26 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:26 PM For the I-95 corridor from DC to Boston this has been the lowest 7 year snowfall stretch ending in 2025 that these areas have ever seen. The main difference between this one and past snow droughts has been this time it has been warmth holding back the snowfall. Past 7 year stretches with much lower snowfall were mostly the result of drier patterns since they occurred back in much colder climate eras relative to the last decade. This time we have been getting warm storm tracks too far north and warm winter background patterns. NYC and Boston just surpassed the 1986 to 1992 snow droughts That era was much colder than the current 2019 to 2025 period. Plus we got the historic 1993-1994 and 1995-1996 seasons ending the snow drought. Our climate has warmed significantly since then making a repeat of those two historic winters unlikely. So it’s going to take an historic volcanic eruption not seen in hundreds or thousands of years in order to cool the climate enough for maybe 2-7 years before the effects wear off and the warmth rebounds. Unfortunately, we don’t have the current technology to make a reliable long range volcanic eruption forecast. So my long range out look outlook from DC to Boston contains several scenarios. The scenarios aren’t necessarily listed in order of probability. Just what each scenario would entail. #1….Lower snowfall regime continues similar to the last 7 seasons through the remainder of the 2020s. #2…Small bounce off 7 year lows through the remainder of the 2020s with slightly higher snowfall during one of more of the next 5 seasons. #3 …historic volcanic event not seen since early 1800s or even before that era dramatically cools the planet for 2 to perhaps 7 years before temperatures resume rise again. This scenario has very low predictability. And could lead to much colder and perhaps snowier winters for a time. Boston to DC record low snowfall last 7 season average from 2018-2019 to 2024-2025 and previous record 7 year lows Boston…2025…26.6”…….1992….29.9” NYC…….2025….14.9”…….1992…..16.3” Philly…...2025….10.5”…….1933…..12.5” DC…….…2025….8.5”…….1995…..10.1” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted yesterday at 06:33 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:33 PM 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: For the I-95 corridor from DC to Boston this has been the lowest 7 year snowfall stretch ending in 2025 that these areas have ever seen. The main difference between this one and past snow droughts has been this time it has been warmth holding back the snowfall. Past 7 year stretches with much lower snowfall were mostly the result of drier patterns since they occurred back in much colder climate eras relative to the last decade. This time we have been getting warm storm tracks too far north and warm winter background patterns. NYC and Boston just surpassed the 1986 to 1992 snow droughts That era was much colder than the current 2019 to 2025 period. Plus we got the historic 1993-1994 and 1995-1996 seasons ending the snow drought. Our climate has warmed significantly since then making a repeat of those two historic winters unlikely. So it’s going to take an historic volcanic eruption not seen in hundreds or thousands of years in order to cool the climate enough for maybe 2-7 years before the effects wear off and the warmth rebounds. Unfortunately, we don’t have the current technology to make a reliable long range volcanic eruption forecast. So my long range out look outlook from DC to Boston contains several scenarios. The scenarios aren’t necessarily listed in order of probability. Just what each scenario would entail. #1….Lower snowfall regime continues similar to the last 7 seasons through the remainder of the 2020s. #2…Small bounce off 7 year lows through the remainder of the 2020s with slightly higher snowfall during one of more of the next 5 seasons. #3 …historic volcanic event not seen since early 1800s or even before that era dramatically cools the planet for 3 to perhaps 7 years before temperatures resume rise again. This scenario has very low predictability. And could lead to much colder and perhaps snowier winters for a time. Boston to DC record low snowfall last 7 season average from 2018-2019 to 2024-2025 and previous record 7 year lows Boston…2025…26.6”…….1992….29.9” NYC…….2025….14.9”…….1992…..16.3” Philly…...2025….10.5”…….1933…..12.5” DC…….…2025….8.5”…….1995…..10.1” so you think that we're going to need a major volcanic eruption to see a 50"+ snowfall winter in NYC? I find that hard to believe given how much more moisture is available when cold air is around. seems like a bit of a stretch 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonymm Posted yesterday at 06:47 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:47 PM 13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: so you think that we're going to need a major volcanic eruption to see a 50"+ snowfall winter in NYC? I find that hard to believe given how much more moisture is available when cold air is around. seems like a bit of a stretch It does not want to precipitate when its cold now. I don't know why that is the case. The pattern as he said for the last 7 years has been that it's either warm and very wet or cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted yesterday at 07:01 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:01 PM 21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: so you think that we're going to need a major volcanic eruption to see a 50"+ snowfall winter in NYC? I find that hard to believe given how much more moisture is available when cold air is around. seems like a bit of a stretch For NYC I would say yes. Since NYC needs a winter average temperature close to 32° for their 50”+ seasons plus a cold storm track. The last time NYC was able to pull this off was back in 2014-2014. Even during the more recent snowy seasons since then, they couldn’t make it to that level since it was too warm for a 50” season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted yesterday at 07:56 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:56 PM In terms of 50" or more seasonal snowfall at New York City, one would typically need a winter colder than last winter was in order to have a reasonable shot. I looked at NYC (Central Park) 50" or above winters and winters from a larger set of sites from Washington, DC to Bridgeport. Only a single winter had a mean temperature at or above last winter's figure (Winter 2009-10 in Washington, DC). Below is the distribution of winters with 50" or more season,al snowfall and mean winter temperatures, along with the coldest and warmest such winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 1 hour ago, anthonymm said: It does not want to precipitate when its cold now. I don't know why that is the case. The pattern as he said for the last 7 years has been that it's either warm and very wet or cold and dry. The pattern really started in 2016-17. That was the year places like Baltimore and DC had like 3 inches of snow. That started their record low 7-year stretch, which lasted until 2022-23. The last two winters, Baltimore and DC got some snow, and those places bounced of those lows. I wonder if the same thing does happen to NYC and Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 23 hours ago Author Share Posted 23 hours ago 3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: The pattern really started in 2016-17. That was the year places like Baltimore and DC had like 3 inches of snow. That started their record low 7-year stretch, which lasted until 2022-23. The last two winters, Baltimore and DC got some snow, and those places bounced of those lows. I wonder if the same thing does happen to NYC and Boston. It began in 2015-2016 with the super El Niño....mid Atlantic just lucked out with the KU, NE did not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: so you think that we're going to need a major volcanic eruption to see a 50"+ snowfall winter in NYC? I find that hard to believe given how much more moisture is available when cold air is around. seems like a bit of a stretch My pic above shows a large storm 2 years back. Was it a narrow band, 100% yes, but it shows it will still snow. Also had a 50"+ season just a few years ago. Anyone thinking otherwise is a complete loon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It began in 2015-2016 with the super El Niño....mid Atlantic just lucked out with the KU, NE did not. That's pretty much always been the case for us down here to get any snow, especially as you go south of the PA/MD border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago On 8/28/2025 at 10:59 AM, brooklynwx99 said: looking at the 500mb patterns over the last two summers, last year is a good match... had the same +NAO/+AO as well as the dual ridges over the western and eastern US. last year is also a good PDO, solar, and overall ENSO match as well. I think it holds a good bit of weight Oh don't get me wrong, I am not saying there is no comparison. There are several reasons why it could be an analog, I was just trying to note that there are many serious differences from a SSTA perspective that should not be glossed over. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago @Stormchaserchuck1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: @Stormchaserchuck1 I don't get why these mets bother to post anything when they highlight "*may*" happen. Nothing more than posting for the sake of posting. Moreover, if you look at the AN temps in the Atlantic, most average at or below +1C. If we get the expected +NAO winter, I seriously doubt it'll be SSTA driven. Of course, the original post and my comments all hinge on SSTA remaining stable through the winter, which is doubtful considering it's still August. So we're back to posting for the sake of posting. P.s. I meant to add a lot of that cooling was Irene, so it could be temporary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I don't get why these mets bother to post anything when they highlight "*may*" happen. Nothing more than posting for the sake of posting. Moreover, if you look at the AN temps in the Atlantic, most average at or below +1C. If we get the expected +NAO winter, I seriously doubt it'll be SSTA driven. Of course, the original post and my comments all hinge on SSTA remaining stable through the winter, which is doubtful considering it's still August. So we're back to posting for the sake of posting. P.s. I meant to add a lot of that cooling was Irene, so it could be temporary. The cold pool south of Greenland and up Davis Straight was there way before Irene. It’s been a very stable feature for several months now. @Stormchaserchuck1 pointed that out well over a month ago. The cooling along the east coast and further out in the central North Atlantic was upwelling from Irene yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Lowest region 3.4 SSTAs since the tail end of last winter…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 20 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The cold pool south of Greenland and up Davis Straight was there way before Irene. It’s been a very stable feature for several months now. @Stormchaserchuck1 pointed that out well over a month ago. The cooling along the east coast and further out in the central North Atlantic was upwelling from Irene yes This 30-day change map suggests that a lot of the cooling in the N Atlantic has been in the last 30 days...Irene? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: In terms of 50" or more seasonal snowfall at New York City, one would typically need a winter colder than last winter was in order to have a reasonable shot. I looked at NYC (Central Park) 50" or above winters and winters from a larger set of sites from Washington, DC to Bridgeport. Only a single winter had a mean temperature at or above last winter's figure (Winter 2009-10 in Washington, DC). Below is the distribution of winters with 50" or more season,al snowfall and mean winter temperatures, along with the coldest and warmest such winters. The other important thing to mention is that there have only been 2 La Nina winters for NYC in the last 50 years with 50”+ in NYC. These were 1995-1996 and 2010-2011. The NYC winter average temperature in 1995-1996 was 32.2° and in 2010-2011 was 32.8°. Both those winters occurred before the warming jump over the last 10 years. The current 10 winter average temperature in NYC since 2015-2016 is the highest on record at 38.2° and +1.8° over the previous warmest 10 winter run. So the past winter which was the coldest of the last decade was only 34.8°. This was 2.0°+ warmer than the 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 winters. I bring up the La Niña factor since we have been in a persistent La Niña background state through the record warming of the WPAC. So this has been interfering with allowing a true El Niño modoki state like we had in 2009-2010 which was a little an over freezing at 33.8°. So the modoki allowed for the heavier snows during a warmer winter than the 2 La Ninas in 1995-1996. The record warming WPAC prevented the El Niño modoki from forming in 2018-2019 and 2019-2020. Even the snowy La Niña winters of 17-18 and 20-21 were too warm for NYC to make it to 50”. But outlying areas which have different requirements to reach 50” did. So my guess is that this current much warmer regime will make it challenging for NYC Central Park station to reach 50” again. But outlying stations which get colder could possibly do it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The other important thing to mention is that there have only been 2 La Nina winters for NYC in the last 50 years with 50”+ in NYC. These were 1995-1996 and 2010-2011. The NYC winter average temperature in 1995-1996 was 32.2° and in 2010-2011 was 32.8°. Both those winters occurred before the warming jump over the last 10 years. The current 10 winter average temperature in NYC since 2015-2016 is the highest on record at 38.2° and +1.8° over the previous warmest 10 winter run. So the past winter which was the coldest of the last decade was only 34.8°. This was 2.0°+ warmer than the 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 winters. I bring up the La Niña factor since we have been in a persistent La Niña background state through the record warming of the WPAC. So this has been interfering with allowing a true El Niño modoki state like we had in 2009-2010 which was a little an over freezing at 33.8°. So the modoki allowed for the heavier snows during a warmer winter than the 2 La Ninas in 1995-1996. The record warming WPAC prevented the El Niño modoki from forming in 2018-2019 and 2019-2020. Even the snowy La Niña winters of 17-18 and 20-21 were too warm for NYC to make it to 50”. But outlying areas which have different requirements to reach 50” did. So my guess is that this current much warmer regime will make it challenging for NYC Central Park station to reach 50” again. But outlying stations which get colder could possibly do it. The persisent La Niña state is an important factor. Statistically, the odds of sufficiently cold winters have declined quite a bit. Even with last winter, the warmth was sufficiently great the the historic probability of a 50" season was very low. By the 2040s (maybe earlier if warming is greater than expected) it's possible that 50" winters will be all but gone with 40" winters becoming as rare as 50" winters. I suspect part of the explosive rise in snowfall during the early 2000s through 2015-16 had as much to do with the benefits of increased moisture temporarily exceeding the impact of warming winters. However, my guess is that NYC has now passed the point where the impact of additional warming now exceeds the benefits of increased moisture. That pattern was present in Washington, DC, which has experienced a structural decline in seasonal snowfall. Given New York City's higher latitude (closer proximity to cold air sources), a sharper initial rise makes sense. But this is how things might play out, if the City is in the early stages of a structural decline in seasonal snowfall under slow winter warming (where 40° winters remain relatively uncommon until around 2040). Red dots are the 30-season averages for 2025-26 through 2039-40. Stronger winter warming could bring the 30-season average near or below 20" by the mid-2030s. Internal variability will exist, so there will still be snowy winters. There will also be more frequent duds with less than 10" seasonal snowfall. The back-to-back < 10" winters of 2022-23 and 2023-24 were perhaps a "warning shot" from a future warmer winter climate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: The cold pool south of Greenland and up Davis Straight was there way before Irene. It’s been a very stable feature for several months now. @Stormchaserchuck1 pointed that out well over a month ago. The cooling along the east coast and further out in the central North Atlantic was upwelling from Irene yes He also pointed out that the calculation that incorporates said cold pool is only modestly positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The other important thing to mention is that there have only been 2 La Nina winters for NYC in the last 50 years with 50”+ in NYC. These were 1995-1996 and 2010-2011. The NYC winter average temperature in 1995-1996 was 32.2° and in 2010-2011 was 32.8°. Both those winters occurred before the warming jump over the last 10 years. The current 10 winter average temperature in NYC since 2015-2016 is the highest on record at 38.2° and +1.8° over the previous warmest 10 winter run. So the past winter which was the coldest of the last decade was only 34.8°. This was 2.0°+ warmer than the 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 winters. I bring up the La Niña factor since we have been in a persistent La Niña background state through the record warming of the WPAC. So this has been interfering with allowing a true El Niño modoki state like we had in 2009-2010 which was a little an over freezing at 33.8°. So the modoki allowed for the heavier snows during a warmer winter than the 2 La Ninas in 1995-1996. The record warming WPAC prevented the El Niño modoki from forming in 2018-2019 and 2019-2020. Even the snowy La Niña winters of 17-18 and 20-21 were too warm for NYC to make it to 50”. But outlying areas which have different requirements to reach 50” did. So my guess is that this current much warmer regime will make it challenging for NYC Central Park station to reach 50” again. But outlying stations which get colder could possibly do it. I think there is some value in honing in on how much temperature maxes have warmed, since I don't think the warmer mins are as detrimental to snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago NYC 50”+: DJF Webb ONI pre 1950/RONI 1950+ 1872-3 CN 1874-5 CN 1898-9 CN 1906-7 CN 1915-6 CN 1916-7 SLN 1922-3 CN 1933-4 MLN 1947-8 WN 1960-1 WN 1966-7 CN 1977-8 WEN 1993-4 WN 1995-6 WLN 2009-10 MEN 2010-1 MLN 2013-4 CN 2014-5 WN 8 CN 4 WN 2 MLN 1 each of SLN, WLN, WEN, MEN 1. CN/WN 12 of 18 (67%) vs only 66 of 156 DJFs (42%). So, chance may have been enhanced by neutral. EN: 2 of 18 (11%) vs 49 of 156 (31%). So, chance may have been decreased by EN. LN: 4 of 18 (22%) vs 41 of 156 (26%)…so, LN may have been pretty neutral influence. 2. 19% of last 32 years 50”+ comparable to 17% of 36 years 1898-9 through 1933-4 @bluewave@donsutherland1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think there is some value in honing in on how much temperature maxes have warmed, since I don't think the warmer mins are as detrimental to snowfall. At some point, rising minimum temperatures matter. Here's the data for NYC: At present, I don't believe cities such as Caribou, Boston, Detroit, Montreal, Ottawa, and Toronto are in transition to structurally lower seasonal snowfall. That's probably one or more decades down the road, with the longest delay of any transition for Caribou, Montreal, Ottawa, and Toronto unless precipitation patterns change significantly e.g., winters become much drier (not shown on the climate modeling). In the meantime, back to the focus of the thread, I suspect that we'll see a weak La Niña that fades fairly quickly (weak-to-moderate RONI), PDO-, QBO-. Statistically, 1882, 1933, and 1971 are good PDO matches. The general idea is that the PDO would be negative for the winter but not as severely negative as at present. Statistically, 2014 might be the best QBO analog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 24 minutes ago, GaWx said: NYC 50”+: DJF Webb ONI pre 1950/RONI 1950+ 1872-3 CN 1874-5 CN 1898-9 CN 1906-7 CN 1915-6 CN 1916-7 SLN 1922-3 CN 1933-4 MLN 1947-8 WN 1960-1 WN 1966-7 CN 1977-8 WEN 1993-4 WN 1995-6 WLN 2009-10 MEN 2010-1 MLN 2013-4 CN 2014-5 WN 8 CN 4 WN 2 MLN 1 each of SLN, WLN, WEN, MEN 1. CN/WN 12 of 18 (67%) vs only 66 of 156 DJFs (42%). So, chance may have been enhanced by neutral. EN: 2 of 18 (11%) vs 49 of 156 (31%). So, chance may have been decreased by EN. LN: 4 of 18 (22%) vs 41 of 156 (26%)…so, LN may have been pretty neutral influence. 2. 19% of last 32 years 50”+ comparable to 17% of 36 years 1898-9 through 1933-4 @bluewave@donsutherland1 Great breakdown by ENSO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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