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2025-2026 ENSO


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10 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Perhaps the real difference between this year and last year is Nino 1+2. Last year, we had moderate, borderline strong el nino conditions in 1+2, a continuation of an el nino in that region from the 2023-24 el nino. This is why I don't consider last year to be an el nino. I consider it to be ENSO neutral, and even then, it's not a traditional ENSO neutral. A la nina in 3.4 and an el nino in 1+2 is very rare.

Recent readings of Nino 1+2 is near 0, showing that the el nino that started in mid-2023 in the region has dissipated. So if we do get la nina conditions this year, it would be a true la nina, unlike last year.

Sorry but I totally disagree. There is a reason why Nino and Nina events are measured/defined by what happens in region 3.4 regardless of what 1+2 or 4 or 3 do. I consider last winter to be a weak La Niña. A late-bloomer weak Nina maybe but a weak Nina nonetheless. I know Ray @40/70 Benchmark does too

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22 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

although I didn't like the results, I would run the 500mb pattern back in a heartbeat. that winter was a clinic on how to get the least amount of snow with favorable 500mb patterns

3NwdBhBSJa.png.fe31db482ec6ca1661a89feb36bfbd9b.png

We always find ways to avoid getting snowstorms in the 2020s. It's like nature is overcorrecting massively for the snowy 2000s-2010s. I really think no matter what kinda 500 mb pattern we get we aren't gonna get a >30" winter for the next few years.

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1 hour ago, anthonymm said:

We always find ways to avoid getting snowstorms in the 2020s. It's like nature is overcorrecting massively for the snowy 2000s-2010s. I really think no matter what kinda 500 mb pattern we get we aren't gonna get a >30" winter for the next few years.

i earnestly believe that some of what's been occurring for the last few years is regression to the mean

that 20 year stretch was insane... NYC averaged 34" of snow from 2002-03 to 2020-21. that was not going to last

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i earnestly believe that some of what's been occurring for the last few years is regression to the mean

that 20 year stretch was insane... NYC averaged 34" of snow from 2002-03 to 2020-21. that was not going to last

Agreed, but the reversion is rather extreme. I mean c'mon:

2021-2022: 17.9"

2022-2023: 2.3"

2023-2024: 7.5"

2024-2025: 12.9 " (despite the sustained cold).

That streak is more anomalous in my opinion than the snowy 2010s pattern.

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3 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Agreed, but the reversion is rather extreme. I mean c'mon:

2021-2022: 17.9"

2022-2023: 2.3"

2023-2024: 7.5"

2024-2025: 12.9 " (despite the sustained cold).

That streak is more anomalous in my opinion than the snowy 2010s pattern.

is it really? we had four 50"+ winters out of six from 2009-10 to 2014-15. it was ridiculous

we also had similarly crappy stretches in the 70s-90s, we just had a lot more 10-15" winters than the single digit ones (not all that much better IMO)

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17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

is it really? we had four 50"+ winters out of six from 2009-10 to 2014-15. it was ridiculous

we also had similarly crappy stretches in the 70s-90s, we just had a lot more 10-15" winters than the single digit ones (not all that much better IMO)

According to where you are a bit too, because 23/24 i had 28.75" while he had much less and we both live in the tri-state.  Snow is always more location dependant and someone always is in a screw zone.  I got this storm, he missed it

Screenshot_20250829_135210_Photos.jpg

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For purposes of analysis, I compared the Winter 2009-10 through 2014-15 period to the Winter 2021-22 through 2024-25 period on a standardized basis. In terms of average deviation, the snowier set was 0.95 standard deviations above the historic winter 1869-70 through 2024-25 baseline. The latter set was an average of 1.20 standard deviations below the baseline. 

Winter 2011-12 was the culprit that reduced the average deviation from normal for the snowy winters. Excluding that winter, the average deviation would have been 1.41 standard deviations from the historic baseline.

Note: These are Central Park figures.

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3 hours ago, anthonymm said:

We always find ways to avoid getting snowstorms in the 2020s. It's like nature is overcorrecting massively for the snowy 2000s-2010s. I really think no matter what kinda 500 mb pattern we get we aren't gonna get a >30" winter for the next few years.

While I suspect that a transition toward structurally lower snowfall is underway from a warming climate, there is a lot of internal variability involved with seasonal snowfall. By the mid-2030s, if the structural decline is underway, Central Park would likely see its 30-season moving average reach or fall below 20" per year.

In the meantime, here are some records for seasonal snowfall droughts:

Most consecutive seasons with < 10": 2, 2022-23 through 2023-24
Most consecutive seasons with < 20": 6, 1949-50 through 1954-55
Most consecutive seasons with < 30": 15, 1978-79 through 1992-93

Note: There were some big storms during the 15-season snow drought, i.e., the 1979 President's Day snowstorm, the 1983 Megalopolis Blizzard, and the 1993 superstorm.

Finally, although they are not common, there have been some very cold winters with low snowfall. Winter 1900-01 had a mean temperature of 31.9° with seasonal snowfall of just 9.1". Winter 1871-72 had a mean temperature of 29.4° with seasonal snowfall of 14.4". Overall, there have been five winters with a winter mean temperature < 32° with less than 20" of snow. 

Below is a scatter diagram of all winters. Cold/Dry winters are highlighted in red. Winters 2021-22 through 2024-25 are highlighted in brown.

image.png.04884275365a1017ccd0fa394fce4de8.png

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For the I-95 corridor from DC to Boston this has been the lowest 7 year snowfall stretch ending in 2025 that these areas have ever seen. The main difference between this one and past snow droughts has been this time it has been warmth holding back the snowfall.

Past 7 year stretches with much lower snowfall were mostly the result of drier patterns since they occurred back in much colder climate eras relative to the last decade. This time we have been getting warm storm tracks too far north and warm winter background patterns. 

NYC and Boston just surpassed the 1986 to 1992 snow droughts That era was much colder than the current 2019 to 2025 period. Plus we got the historic 1993-1994 and 1995-1996 seasons ending the snow drought. Our climate has warmed significantly since then making a repeat of those two historic winters unlikely. 

So it’s going to take an historic volcanic eruption not seen in hundreds or thousands of years in order to cool the climate enough for maybe 2-7 years before the effects wear off and the warmth rebounds. Unfortunately, we don’t have the current technology to make a reliable long range volcanic eruption forecast.

So my long range out look outlook from DC to Boston contains several scenarios. The scenarios aren’t necessarily listed in order of probability. Just what each scenario would entail.

#1….Lower snowfall regime continues similar to the last 7 seasons through the remainder of the 2020s.

#2…Small bounce off 7 year lows through the remainder of the 2020s with slightly higher snowfall during one of more of the next 5 seasons. 

#3 …historic volcanic event not seen since early 1800s or even before that era dramatically cools the planet for 2 to perhaps 7 years before temperatures resume rise again. This scenario has very low predictability. And could lead to much colder and perhaps snowier winters for a time.

Boston to DC record low snowfall last 7 season average from 2018-2019 to 2024-2025 and previous record 7 year lows

Boston…2025…26.6”…….1992….29.9”

NYC…….2025….14.9”…….1992…..16.3”

Philly…...2025….10.5”…….1933…..12.5”

DC…….…2025….8.5”…….1995…..10.1”

 


 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

For the I-95 corridor from DC to Boston this has been the lowest 7 year snowfall stretch ending in 2025 that these areas have ever seen. The main difference between this one and past snow droughts has been this time it has been warmth holding back the snowfall.

Past 7 year stretches with much lower snowfall were mostly the result of drier patterns since they occurred back in much colder climate eras relative to the last decade. This time we have been getting warm storm tracks too far north and warm winter background patterns. 

NYC and Boston just surpassed the 1986 to 1992 snow droughts That era was much colder than the current 2019 to 2025 period. Plus we got the historic 1993-1994 and 1995-1996 seasons ending the snow drought. Our climate has warmed significantly since then making a repeat of those two historic winters unlikely. 

So it’s going to take an historic volcanic eruption not seen in hundreds or thousands of years in order to cool the climate enough for maybe 2-7 years before the effects wear off and the warmth rebounds. Unfortunately, we don’t have the current technology to make a reliable long range volcanic eruption forecast.

So my long range out look outlook from DC to Boston contains several scenarios. The scenarios aren’t necessarily listed in order of probability. Just what each scenario would entail.

#1….Lower snowfall regime continues similar to the last 7 seasons through the remainder of the 2020s.

#2…Small bounce off 7 year lows through the remainder of the 2020s with slightly higher snowfall during one of more of the next 5 seasons. 

#3 …historic volcanic event not seen since early 1800s or even before that era dramatically cools the planet for 3 to perhaps 7 years before temperatures resume rise again. This scenario has very low predictability. And could lead to much colder and perhaps snowier winters for a time.

Boston to DC record low snowfall last 7 season average from 2018-2019 to 2024-2025 and previous record 7 year lows

Boston…2025…26.6”…….1992….29.9”

NYC…….2025….14.9”…….1992…..16.3”

Philly…...2025….10.5”…….1933…..12.5”

DC…….…2025….8.5”…….1995…..10.1”

 


 

 

 

so you think that we're going to need a major volcanic eruption to see a 50"+ snowfall winter in NYC? I find that hard to believe given how much more moisture is available when cold air is around. seems like a bit of a stretch

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13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

so you think that we're going to need a major volcanic eruption to see a 50"+ snowfall winter in NYC? I find that hard to believe given how much more moisture is available when cold air is around. seems like a bit of a stretch

It does not want to precipitate when its cold now. I don't know why that is the case. The pattern as he said for the last 7 years has been that it's either warm and very wet or cold and dry. 

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21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

so you think that we're going to need a major volcanic eruption to see a 50"+ snowfall winter in NYC? I find that hard to believe given how much more moisture is available when cold air is around. seems like a bit of a stretch

For NYC I would say yes. Since NYC needs a winter average temperature close to 32° for their 50”+ seasons plus a cold storm track. The last time NYC was able to pull this off was back in 2014-2014. Even during the more recent snowy seasons since then, they couldn’t make it to that level since it was too warm for a 50” season. 

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In terms of 50" or more seasonal snowfall at New York City, one would typically need a winter colder than last winter was in order to have a reasonable shot. I looked at NYC (Central Park) 50" or above winters and winters from a larger set of sites from Washington, DC to Bridgeport. Only a single winter had a mean temperature at or above last winter's figure (Winter 2009-10 in Washington, DC). 

Below is the distribution of winters with 50" or more season,al snowfall and mean winter temperatures, along with the coldest and warmest such winters.

image.png.b86117e392d856c9328590e8ad9e9c20.png

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1 hour ago, anthonymm said:

It does not want to precipitate when its cold now. I don't know why that is the case. The pattern as he said for the last 7 years has been that it's either warm and very wet or cold and dry. 

The pattern really started in 2016-17. That was the year places like Baltimore and DC had like 3 inches of snow. That started their record low 7-year stretch, which lasted until 2022-23. The last two winters, Baltimore and DC got some snow, and those places bounced of those lows.

I wonder if the same thing does happen to NYC and Boston.

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3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The pattern really started in 2016-17. That was the year places like Baltimore and DC had like 3 inches of snow. That started their record low 7-year stretch, which lasted until 2022-23. The last two winters, Baltimore and DC got some snow, and those places bounced of those lows.

I wonder if the same thing does happen to NYC and Boston.

It began in 2015-2016 with the super El Niño....mid Atlantic just lucked out with the KU, NE did not.

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

so you think that we're going to need a major volcanic eruption to see a 50"+ snowfall winter in NYC? I find that hard to believe given how much more moisture is available when cold air is around. seems like a bit of a stretch

My pic above shows a large storm 2 years back.  Was it a narrow band, 100% yes, but it shows it will still snow. Also had a 50"+ season just a few years ago.  Anyone thinking otherwise is a complete loon

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26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It began in 2015-2016 with the super El Niño....mid Atlantic just lucked out with the KU, NE did not.

That's pretty much always been the case for us down here to get any snow, especially as you go south of the PA/MD border.

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