2025-2026 ENSO

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Even if 22-23 is a good analog winter, that’s only one analog, which has little statistical weight on its own.

 

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Assuming it is, they're never exactly the same and small variations can make a big difference with the final results.

There's the pro version and weenie version right there! Lol

[brooklynwx99]

4 hours ago, anthonymm said:

So is 22-23 a good analog year? If so coastal mid atl-sne is screwed.

it isn't. last year is actually the best analog that i've found

[brooklynwx99]

5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

It’s not rotten luck. The Pacific Jet oriented in a way and strength that systematically destroyed our chances especially south of I-90 to PHL. Historically when it’s been cold enough in NYC it’s found a way to snow because there would be a PNA ridge that would stick around long enough or NAO blocking to slow the pattern down. Now the Pacific Jet knocks it all down like bowling pins and storms either can’t amplify in time or amplify too much. 

I suppose you can say that the Pacific jet helped the for parts of the MA and South then, which saw snowfall far above normal last winter

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I suppose you can say that the Pacific jet helped the for parts of the MA and South then, which saw snowfall far above normal last winter

The faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet helped to suppress the weaker Southern Stream during the split flow intervals last winter. So it prevented those storms from coming further north. This has been the same theme since 2018-2019 with Great Lakes cutters, I-78 to I-84 huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

But if there's something encouraging about the last 2 years, it's that Baltimore and DC received snow. We didn't see that much from 16-17 to 22-23. 

Average snowfall 16-17 to 22-23

BWI: 9.1 inches

DCA: 6.8 inches

Average snowfall 23-24 and 24-25

BWI: 12 inches

DCA: 11.5 inches

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Down below 5190dm over the Arctic circle Aug 22-25. It's doing exactly what that +AO roll-forward showed, in the exact location, albeit a few months early. I thought this was impressive because the Polar Vortex was 2000 miles from where the base +AO period had negative H5. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

But if there's something encouraging about the last 2 years, it's that Baltimore and DC received snow. We didn't see that much from 16-17 to 22-23. 

Average snowfall 16-17 to 22-23

BWI: 9.1 inches

DCA: 6.8 inches

Average snowfall 23-24 and 24-25

BWI: 12 inches

DCA: 11.5 inches

 

18-19 and 20-21 through 22-23 -NAO's were really not getting cold at all. The last 2 Winters, there has been cold under -NAO patterns in the east, and the Mid Atlantic has done better in those times.