2025-2026 ENSO

[so_whats_happening]

Pick your poison a week plus out you either get the threat of TC landfall and warmth over much of the East or you get cool and storms get scooped up out to sea.

[snowman19]

I think this Atlantic tropical season has tipped its hand….

[snowman19]

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could see backing off of the ACE correlations that are applicable during La Niña, but I would certainly be skewing most aspects of a seasonal outlook towards cool ENSO.

The thing I’m mystified at is the proposition that a cold-neutral/borderline weak La Niña would produce a completely different result than an actual weak La Niña. You are talking about negligible difference in temps. I can’t get my head around that one

[PhiEaglesfan712]

13 hours ago, bluewave said:

https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Feb92017

 

• Blizzard conditions occurred over Long Island, Southern Connecticut, and coastal portions of the Lower Hudson Valley from after sunrise into the late afternoon hours on February 9, 2017.
  • Snowfall totals ranged from 6" across portions of northeast New Jersey to around 10" in New York City to 12-16" across Long Island, southern Connecticut, and the Lower Hudson Valley. 
  • Thundersnow was observed across portions of Long Island and southern Connecticut. 
  • Snowfall rates range from 1 to 3 inches per hour with locally 4 inches per hour at times. 

• The blizzard brought delays and cancellations to the regions transportations systems as well as numerous accidents on roadways. 
  • Approximately 2,000 flight cancellations and numerous delays occurred at the three major airports, Kennedy, Newark, and LaGuardia.
  • The Long Island Railroad had systemwide delays and cancelled 20 trains.
  • Multiple car accidents occurred on roads as well as several hundred rescues were performed by police/fire on Long Island. 

 

 Other Facts 

• A cold front associated with low pressure across southeast Canada moved across the region on Wednesday February 8. Behind the cold front, an upper level trough amplfied across the midwest. Energy within this trough acted on the cold front to develop a new low pressure across the Middle Atlantic. This low pressure rapidly intensified as it moved off the Delmarva coast the morning of Thursday February 9 and then to the south and east of Long Island later later that day.

• The southeast coast of Long Island including the eastern Hamptons and Montauk were warmer at the onset of the storm. Montauk was 41 degrees between 9 and 10 am in rain, before dropping to around 32 by 11 am in heavy snow. 

• The day before the blizzard (Wednesday February 8), record warmth was observed across the Tri-State area. Record highs ranged from 62 at Central Park, NY to 65 at Newark, NJ.  Temperatures dropped 30-40 degrees in 12-15 hours as readings were in the middle-upper 20s during the height of the blizzard.

 

Yeah, that one had a very sharp cutoff (like most of the storms that winter). I had to be more north/east for this. 16-17 was almost like 07-08. Yeah, there were some places north that had a good snow season, but south of a certain point, it absolutely sucked. The snowstorm in mid-March made the season toals respectable, otherwise it would have finished right around the 07-08 total.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, that one had a very sharp cutoff (like most of the storms that winter). I had to be more north/east for this. 16-17 was almost like 07-08. Yeah, there were some places north that had a good snow season, but south of a certain point, it absolutely sucked. The snowstorm in mid-March made the season toals respectable, otherwise it would have finished right around the 07-08 total.

Both the 16-17 and 17-18 seasons were better around the NYC Metro coastal areas the further east on Long Island that you were. Same went for January 22 with spots from ACY to Suffolk County on Long Island doing better.

07-08, 06-07, and 01-02 were the 3 lowest snowfall seasons for the 2000s in my area. The good snowfall seasons were 00-01, 02-03, 03-04, 04-05, 05-06, and 08-09. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Stormchaserchuck1Two years in a row now our NAO work is lock-in-step......I swear, your calculation never influences my process in the slightest. My favorite part of seasonal forecasting is how eclectic it is....two folks with entirely different backgrounds like you and me can reach the same conclusion via disparate quantitative vs qualitative methods. The unique blend of of science and subjectivity really does make it an art form. 

That is awesome-

Spring/Summer NAO roll forward, and +2 years after Solar Max also support a Winter +NAO at 0.2-3 correlation. I suspect we'll have the same deal as the last few years where the CPC NAO index will be positive, but the AO will be negative a lot of the time, with +500mb heights up near the Pole. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Spring/Summer NAO roll forward, and +2 years after Solar Max also support a Winter +NAO at 0.2-3 correlation. I suspect we'll have the same deal as the last few years where the CPC NAO index will be positive, but the AO will be negative a lot of the time, with +500mb heights up near the Pole. 

Well, it isn't 2+ years....solar max was last October.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, it isn't 2+ years....solar max was last October.

I think it's strongest 0 to +4 years. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think it's strongest 0 to +4 years. 

Yea, it's somewhat nebulous, but the best consensus from the research that I reviewed is that the height of the tendency for +NAO coincides with geomagnetic peak, about 2 years post max and lasts until +4 years.....so 2-4 years post max. However, certainly +NAO is still somewhat favored right now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's the dispersing of geomagnetic particles via solar wind that is the real trigger for +NAO, and that lags solar max.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Spring/Summer NAO roll forward, and +2 years after Solar Max also support a Winter +NAO at 0.2-3 correlation. I suspect we'll have the same deal as the last few years where the CPC NAO index will be positive, but the AO will be negative a lot of the time, with +500mb heights up near the Pole. 

It’s possible that the strongest polar blocking since the 2007 Arctic sea ice decline has been back closer to the Barents and Kara seas due to the open waters in those locations during the winter.

Maybe the Arctic winter pattern from 2007-2025 has been some type of open water SST feedback ridge where there used to be thick ice during the winter. The older blocking intervals used to have the blocking focused closer to Greenland.

The last 18 winters have had the blocking centered from the KB areas to the pole instead.  So this could be making the blocking more AO dominant instead of NAO focused.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s possible that the strongest polar blocking since the 2007 Arctic sea ice decline has been back closer to the Barents and Kara seas due to the open waters in those locations during the winter.

I just think it's so interesting how Summer's with -SLP 60-90N since 2012 reversed in the Winter almost everytime. And it's not reversing as a -NAO over Greenland, it's 100% reversing, at 90N. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I just think it's so interesting how Summer's with -SLP 60-90N since 2012 reversed in the Winter almost everytime. And it's not reversing as a -NAO over Greenland, it's 100% reversing, at 90N. 

Bodes well for -AO this winter....but I do agree with you and @bluewavethat the NAO is likely to average +despite this.

[donsutherland1]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I think this Atlantic tropical season has tipped its hand….
 

A bigger problem is meteorologists such as JB posting such graphics. In his case, he’s arguing that the odds favor landfall. Everything I have seen suggests otherwise—maybe a 2-in-3 likelihood of recurvature. It’s early, still. But that is where things stand with Invest 97.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I agree that 97L will likely stay out to sea, as CV storms passing NE of 60W/20N, stay out to sea historically 90% of the time. The ones that break that have a huge +H5 ridge over the top after it passes that point, and models don't currently have that. 

[KakashiHatake2000]

i have no clue where to put this so im putting it here this is treys or convective chronicles 2025 tornado season recap and forecast verification

 

[George001]

22 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could see backing off of the ACE correlations that are applicable during La Niña, but I would certainly be skewing most aspects of a seasonal outlook towards cool ENSO.

What are your early thoughts for analogs? I haven’t been following things too closely the past couple of months, but reading the past few pages and latest guidance it looks like things have trended more in favor of a La Niña rather than cold neutral. You think ENSO will be weaker or stronger than last year? 

[snowman19]

Bodes well for -AO this winter....but I do agree with you and [mention=564]bluewave[/mention]that the NAO is likely to average +despite this.

There has definitely been an AO/NAO “disconnect” (they used to be positive together or negative together in the past) the last several years, whether it’s CC/arctic sea ice, possibly even solar cycle related is obviously open for debate.

I read on twitter today that the new model runs are getting stronger with the -IOD for this fall. That anticipated -IOD/-ENSO combo, SST alignment, supports MJO 4-5-6-7 (“Niña like” phases) being dominant. Not that such low frequency forcing is any surprise given the last several years….

[KakashiHatake2000]

yeah the youtube link treys or convective chronicles 2025 tornado season recap and forecast verification i posted in here seems to be sort of irreverent sorry about that but wasnt sure where to post it 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

What are your early thoughts for analogs? I haven’t been following things too closely the past couple of months, but reading the past few pages and latest guidance it looks like things have trended more in favor of a La Niña rather than cold neutral. You think ENSO will be weaker or stronger than last year? 

ENSO should be a bit weaker than last year, but I don't think it will make much of a diff.

As for analogs, take a look at my new blog post with respect to the higher latitudes. I haven't done the Pacific yet....probably towards the end of the month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

There has definitely been an AO/NAO “disconnect” (they used to be positive together or negative together in the past) the last several years, whether it’s CC/arctic sea ice, possibly even solar cycle related is obviously open for debate.

I read on twitter today that the new model runs are getting stronger with the -IOD for this fall. That anticipated -IOD/-ENSO combo, SST alignment, supports MJO 4-5-6-7 (“Niña like” phases) being dominant. Not that such low frequency forcing is any surprise given the last several years….

Its going be a weak La Nina....not prohibitive to east coast winter, but nor do I expect a primary storm track over the benchmark. Going to me a blend of messy storms and redevelopers IMO.

[mitchnick]

50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its going be a weak La Nina....not prohibitive to east coast winter, but nor do I expect a primary storm track over the benchmark. Going to me a blend of messy storms and redevelopers IMO.

At this point, I'd agree (not that it matters if I didn't  lol.) North will be the place to be (as in you!), but my inland location down here should be worth at least a few front enders to mix. My old location just north of BWI was terrible for those type events, with changeovers always occurring ahead of schedule.