2025-2026 ENSO

[so_whats_happening]

On 8/4/2025 at 4:31 PM, GaWx said:

Check out the recent trend of the reduced difference in RONI and ONI:

RONI-ONI:

MJJ 2024 -0.60

JJA -0.54

JAS -0.52

ASO -0.54

SON -0.55

OND -0.55

NDJ -0.55

DJF -0.53

JFM 2025 -0.51

FMA -0.49

MAM -0.43

AMJ -0.38

MJJ -0.32

To me at least this is telling me we are slowly cooling off the WPAC with no real discernable changes in the central and EPAC with SST. Baby steps.

[so_whats_happening]

Should have saved this until tomorrow but whatever here is all of June/July and the 1st of August. 

[snowman19]

This strongly supports the development of a Niña:

[PhiEaglesfan712]

8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

We still keep getting random bouts of a Nino like response even with the -PDO where it is and the weak cool/ neutral SST profile.

It could probably be that Nino 1+2 has been in an el nino state, even after the 2023-24 el nino ended. My guess that will stick at least through the next official el nino. If we get a strong or super el nino in the coming years, Nino 1+2 will really go off the charts (like in 82-83 and 97-98).

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

ECMWF Monthly Anomalies for Select Cities:

Main idea: The best of winter would be December-January in the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and New England areas, if the guidance is correct. The Southwest would be warm for the fall and winter.

Buffalo and Toronto:

September: +1.3
October: +0.8
November: +1.3
December: +0.4
January: 0.0
February: 1.3

Savannah:

September: +0.8
October: +0.8
November: +0.8
December: +0.4
January: +0.8
February: +1.8

Don, I am thinking December-January and then again in March.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, in the NAO roll-forward we would have to get -EPO to balance out those US Temps with such a strong +NAO going on. I just think it's cool how they pick their own unique landing place with the northern latitude trough, not in what's occurring or has occurred, but going forward. 

What is your NAO formula at currently?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is your NAO formula at currently?

With 61% of the period complete, it's at +0.20 for DJFM NAO. Given the 0.54 sd, which has hit 11-9 since inception in 2005, it has a 50% probability of being in the range -0.34 to +0.74 Winter NAO. 

[snowman19]

Skeptical hippo here that this is going to somehow magically turn into a very active Atlantic hurricane season with high ACE. I’m feeling confident sticking with my guess of below normal

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Skeptical hippo here that this is going to somehow magically turn into a very active Atlantic hurricane season with high ACE. I’m feeling confident sticking with my guess of below normal
 

 

CSU 8/6/25 update: 145 total ACE vs 140 in last month’s forecast, vs 122, which is 1991-2020 average, and vs the new Euro seasonal’s ~155:

FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND
LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2025 We have maintained our forecast for a slightly above-normal 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season, although noting lower-than-normal confidence with this outlook. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic have anomalously warmed over the past few weeks and are now somewhat warmer than normal. Multiple indicators anticipate likely cool ENSO neutral conditions during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Warm sea surface temperatures and ENSO neutral conditions typically provide a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. The primary reason for the uncertainty in the outlook is the high observed Caribbean shear over recent weeks. Typically, high levels of Caribbean shear in June July are associated with less active hurricane seasons. We anticipate a slightly above- average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean for the remainder of the hurricane season.