2025-2026 ENSO

[chubbs]

20 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Yeah, maybe time to move on and make a post about the topic of this thread, which ive never seen you post about.  Odd that you choose to respond to every single post on this whole entire board when they say hey, maybe area x isn't warming as fast as say Philly. Not everything is equal.  Not every single post has to be about CC. Its nauseating that people like you, bluewave and tcc have to include it in every post you ever make.  We arent reverting back to 1900 anytime soon, so lets assume we ALL know that and move on. Michsnow is not Chesco

Like I said we all have our own perspective. Agree that Michsnow is not Chesco. I try to keep things factual. sorry that you are bothered. 

Like I said I don't see much evidence for differential winter warming. Happy to consider data showing otherwise.

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Yeah, maybe time to move on and make a post about the topic of this thread, which ive never seen you post about.  Odd that you choose to respond to every single post on this whole entire board when they say hey, maybe area x isn't warming as fast as say Philly. Not everything is equal.  Not every single post has to be about CC. Its nauseating that people like you, bluewave and tcc have to include it in every post you ever make.  We arent reverting back to 1900 anytime soon, so lets assume we ALL know that and move on. Michsnow is not Chesco

You seem to have a very selective memory when it comes to posts and discussions in these various threads. What usually happens is that I discuss a forecast and pattern and add perspective to my post. I discuss how the individual forecast period or pattern relates to the greater pattern on the whole. Including weather history in the post adds an extra dimension which helps to explain and bring the pattern to life for the reader.

But you and some other posters will frequently respond with a post like your local area is different and it isn’t warming like the other areas are. Then I dig into the weather history for your local area and show that the pattern and trend is pretty much the same as other areas are. It’s you and other posters trying to claim that you live in an area which somehow seems to be defying the rest of the world’s trends or that it’s all just UHI.  If you didn’t try to claim that your area is somehow different from the other areas that I am discussing, then these threads wouldn’t keep going off topic. Since local weather and climate patterns are driven by broader global ones.

It isn’t fair that you are trying to shut down a discussion that stems from a comment that you made. Look, I get it that some people don’t enjoy the fact that the earth is warming. So it’s a natural defense mechanism to not acknowledge it. But this narrow perspective is incomplete and leads to less reliable forecasts based on climate states and patterns which no longer exist.

The other issue is that some posters view weather and climate through a political prism. This inevitably leads to a distorted perspective since a political belief is separate from issues dealing with the natural world like weather and climate. You will notice that I never bring up politics or policy perspectives. This is due to the fact that I am not really a political person. So you have to understand that recognizing the fact that the world is warming and it’s affecting our sensible weather on many levels doesn’t mean that I am advocating for any specific policies or programs. Since it’s up to each individual what types of policies they they want which is outside the scope of these threads. 

[snowman19]

I guess 1916-17 is his only one that makes sense. It was a -PNA Winter though, way below average in the West and Upper Midwest, average in the SE and Mid-Atlantic (vs 1900-2000 averages). 

Lol with the lone exception of 1916-17 those were +PDO winters. If he’s trying to argue that the PDO is somehow going to magically flip positive by winter, I wish him lots of luck….i think he’s going to need it

[snowman19]

We have only had one October really amplified MJO 5-6 during each multiyear La Niña going back to 2010. October 2024…+2.76…October 2020…+2.81….October 2017…+3.35….October 2010….+2.88.
The other La Niña years surrounding these in each group had a weaker October MJO in 5-6 like in 2022, 2021, 2016, and 2011. So the more amplified October years featured La Niña +PNA mismatches.
With the exception of last year, these were very snowy winters. But the WPAC pattern and Pacific Jet never relaxed last winter like all the previous mismatch winters did. This is what I was pointing out last year why I mentioned early on that there were competing influences which didn’t exist during the other winters. So not to expect the same type of outcome.  
So this would be a first time occurrence if the MJO 5 peaked again this October in the +2.76 to +3.35 range. Seems like it’s some type of fall forcing event which affects the winter PNA during La Ninas. 
It’s why my guess a few months back that this 25-26 winter will be warmer than last winter was with the PNA averaging less positive than last winter did. But since the snowfall was so low last winter, it wouldn’t take much for one decent snow event to surpass last seasons snowfall totals from around Philly to Boston.
Plus it’s possible that we could get a least one winter month with a decent +PNA like we saw in January 2022 even though the PNA was strongly negative in December tilting the whole winter -PNA. That was largely driven by the MJO 8. January 2022 was the last winter month around NYC which was both cold and snowy especially Long Island.
We have also seen very impressive 500 ridges in Canada since the 2023-2024 El Niño generally boosting the +PNA. So we’ll have to wait for the October verification this year to know if it will be like  past multiyear La Ninas following the mismatch winters like we had in 2024-2025. Always have to leave open the possibility of a first time occurrence with back to back mismatch events. But this hasn’t happened yet since 2010.

While the MJO has definitely been active in phases 5-6-7 so far, it hasn’t been very strong/amplified like last summer was…..

[snowman19]

21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

[mention=17]ORH_wxman[/mention]Was actually metioning the other day how this year kind of resembles some of the older cool ENSO events in that there is more cooler water near the west coast than in the recent ones.

It definitely looks like a more “traditional” -PDO in the NE PAC with the cold horseshoe from the GOA down the west coast of NA. What’s also very striking is how severely negative the PMM has become

[donsutherland1]

50 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Lol with the lone exception of 1916-17 those were +PDO winters. If he’s trying to argue that the PDO is somehow going to magically flip positive by winter, I wish him lots of luck….i think he’s going to need it

It’s tough to see the PDO- completely breaking down and switching to a PDO+ for winter. Did he present evidence to support his proposed evolution? 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

It’s tough to see the PDO- completely breaking down and switching to a PDO+ for winter. Did he present evidence to support his proposed evolution? 

Of all those years listed, 2013-14 is probably the only one that's reasonable, as it really wasn't a +PDO winter. It generally moved toward a positive direction (neutral), but it was mostly a -PDO winter. In fact, I think it's a better analog than 1916-17 (it's hard to ignore the fact that global temps are ~2C warmer now than in 1916-17).

I'm not saying that the PDO will make it all the way back to neutral by the time the winter is over (the big difference between now and 2013 is that the PDO is at -3 to -4 now, whereas the PDO was around -1.5 in the summer of 2013), but a -2 PDO at the start of winter and a -1 at the end is doable.

But it's all going to depend on the WPAC jet. This winter has a high variance of outcomes. I can see a 2013-14 type winter happening, but by the same token, I could just as easily see a 2011-12 type winter (say the -PDO stays deeply negative, a la nina, and the WPAC staying the same).

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Of all those years listed, 2013-14 is probably the only one that's reasonable, as it really wasn't a +PDO winter. It generally moved toward a positive direction (neutral), but it was mostly a -PDO winter. In fact, I think it's a better analog than 1916-17 (it's hard to ignore the fact that global temps are ~2C warmer now than in 1916-17).

I'm not saying that the PDO will make it all the way back to neutral by the time the winter is over (the big difference between now and 2013 is that the PDO is at -3 to -4 now, whereas the PDO was around -1.5 in the summer of 2013), but a -2 PDO at the start of winter and a -1 at the end is doable.

But it's all going to depend on the WPAC jet. This winter has a high variance of outcomes. I can see a 2013-14 type winter happening, but by the same token, I could just as easily see a 2011-12 type winter (say the -PDO stays deeply negative, a la nina, and the WPAC staying the same).

I agree that 2013-14 is probably at the cold/snowy side of the envelope for what could lie ahead. I hope something close to it plays out rather than something like 2011-12. Like you, I suspect that the PDO- will relax somewhat toward winter, but the redevelopment of a La Niña will likely limit how much it fades. RONI is already in La Niña territory.  The cool SSTAs off southern California/Baja California could also impede the subtropical jet leading to a drier winter in the Southwest and reduced opportunity for Miller A storms in the East, if they persist. Miller Bs typically favor New England with a sharp drop in seasonal snowfall somewhere in the Middle Atlantic, greatest risk Baltimore and southward, but sometimes New York and southward. NYC is moving closer to setting a record for its longest drought without a 4" or above daily snowfall.

There could still be surprises. Last winter's historic snowstorm that affected Houston to Pensacola (historic New Orleans eastward) was one extreme example. 

[snowman19]

27 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Of all those years listed, 2013-14 is probably the only one that's reasonable, as it really wasn't a +PDO winter. It generally moved toward a positive direction (neutral), but it was mostly a -PDO winter. In fact, I think it's a better analog than 1916-17 (it's hard to ignore the fact that global temps are ~2C warmer now than in 1916-17).
I'm not saying that the PDO will make it all the way back to neutral by the time the winter is over (the big difference between now and 2013 is that the PDO is at -3 to -4 now, whereas the PDO was around -1.5 in the summer of 2013), but a -2 PDO at the start of winter and a -1 at the end is doable.
But it's all going to depend on the WPAC jet. This winter has a high variance of outcomes. I can see a 2013-14 type winter happening, but by the same token, I could just as easily see a 2011-12 type winter (say the -PDO stays deeply negative, a la nina, and the WPAC staying the same).

13-14 was a “Victoria mode” SSTA pattern in the PAC. A Victoria mode resembles a +PDO in the SST signature way more than it does a -PDO. Even though 13-14 was technically a weak -PDO, the SST distribution resembled way more of a +PDO than it did a -PDO. In fact, if you looked at the SST maps from that winter you would think the PDO was positive

@donsutherland1 @bluewave

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

 

Beat ya for once lol

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

13-14 was a “Victoria mode” SSTA pattern in the PAC. A Victoria mode resembles a +PDO in the SST signature way more than it does a -PDO. Even though 13-14 was technically a weak -PDO, the SST distribution resembled way more of a +PDO than it did a -PDO. In fact, if you looked at the SST maps from that winter you would think the PDO was positive

@donsutherland1 @bluewave

Yeah, but it also goes beyond the opposite SST pattern in 13-14 to what we have today. That winter was also the function of a colder climate era before the big baseline temperature jumps in 15-16 and 23-24. So even a complete reversal of the Pacific pattern at some point in the future probably wouldn’t yield an outcome as cold or snowy. Plus the Northern Hemisphere cold pool during the winters have become so small, that the 500mb ridges would be more expansive and troughs smaller than 13-14. 

We would need a major volcanic eruption to ever see a repeat of winters like 1975-1976, 1995-1996, 2009-2010, 2010-2011, 2013-2014, and 2014-2015. This is why I don’t like using those analogs since they were products of much colder background states. Last December I didn’t think that some talk of a 2013-2014 ABNA style pattern repeating would be supported by this warmer climate. This turned out to be correct. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

NYC is moving closer to setting a record for its longest drought without a 4" or above daily snowfall.

The last 4" snowfall for NYC is still 1/28-29/2022, correct?

Also interesting to note that if not for the late January/early February 2021 snowstorm, NYC would be working on nearly a decade since the last 10" snowfall. I remember someone saying that 2021-22 through 2024-25 joins 2016-17 through 2019-20 as the only 4-year periods without a 10-inch snowstorm. If that's the case, then if we don't get a 10-inch snowstorm this year, it will be the first 5-year period and 9 out of 10 years without a 10-inch snowstorm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, but it also goes beyond the opposite SST pattern in 13-14 to what we have today. That winter was also the function of a colder climate era before the big baseline temperature jumps in 15-16 and 23-24. So even a complete reversal of the Pacific pattern at some point in the future probably wouldn’t yield an outcome as cold or snowy. Plus the Northern Hemisphere cold pool during the winters have become so small, that the 500mb ridges would be more expansive and troughs smaller than 13-14. 

We would need a major volcanic eruption to ever see a repeat of winters like 1975-1976, 1995-1996, 2009-2010, 2010-2011, 2013-2014, and 2014-2015. This is why I don’t like using those analogs since they were products of much colder background states. Last December I didn’t think that some talk of a 2013-2014 ABNA style pattern repeating would be supported by this warmer climate. This turned out to be correct. 

The globe has warmed some since 2014....but lets not talk like its some far away galaxy...part of the reason it wasn't as cold is the WPO.

I am also willing to bet some deep southern areas were snowier than they were that season...I know many northern areas were not as snowy due to precipitation, not temps...so while obviously a replica season (including -WPO) wouldn't be as cold, nor would said cold be as expansive, I think it could still be as snowy and perahps snowier in some spots.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't think deriving value from a 12 year old analog and remaining mindful that the world has warmed are mutually exclusive. The sample size is small enough as it is-

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s tough to see the PDO- completely breaking down and switching to a PDO+ for winter. Did he present evidence to support his proposed evolution? 

Not happening. Agreed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^Decadal trends are real. Some people don't get that for some reason. The Earth seems to move in waves, that are decades long. Now with all this data in 2025 we can map out the NAO/PDO and see that the standard deviation of random vs cycles is about 5:1 (5x more likely to be cyclical). The Earth is warming an average of 3-4F. ok. I don't think that applies to everything, and large scale patterns recently. The problem with data-analysis right now is that we might be in the middle of the -PDO/+NAO cycle, seeming like it's a one-way trend (with regards to the most talked about subject - Winter Northeast snowfall). 

 

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The globe has warmed some since 2014....but lets not talk like its some far away galaxy...part of the reason it wasn't as cold is the WPO.

I am also willing to bet some deep southern areas were snowier than they were that season...I know many northern areas were not as snowy due to precipitation, not temps...so while obviously a replica season (including -WPO) wouldn't be as cold, nor would said cold be as expansive, I think it could still be as snowy and perahps snowier in some spots.

 

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think deriving value from a 12 year old analog and remaining mindful that the world has warmed are mutually exclusive. The sample size is small enough as it is-

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The last 4" snowfall for NYC is still 1/28-29/2022, correct?

Also interesting to note that if not for the late January/early February 2021 snowstorm, NYC would be working on nearly a decade since the last 10" snowfall. I remember someone saying that 2021-22 through 2024-25 joins 2016-17 through 2019-20 as the only 4-year periods without a 10-inch snowstorm. If that's the case, then if we don't get a 10-inch snowstorm this year, it will be the first 5-year period and 9 out of 10 years without a 10-inch snowstorm.

Yes, January 29, 2022 (7.3”) was the last 4” or greater daily snowfall at Central Park.

[jm1220]

24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes, January 29, 2022 (7.3”) was the last 4” or greater daily snowfall at Central Park.

That one dropped 14-15" in my backyard just 30 miles east of Central Park, 20" a 20 minute drive south/east of me and 24" at Islip about 50 miles east of Manhattan. If only it could've developed a hair sooner. That of course was the last good nor'easter for this area. Tons of crap SWFE events (although there was the one decent front end 4-6" event last winter here), cutters, suppressed garbage and every other type of disappointment since. This ferocious Pacific jet pattern is tailor made to ruin the winter chances for the northern Mid Atlantic. As long as that persists our odds at anything different are piss poor at best. 

[michsnowfreak]

14 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

1916-17 was one of the strongest la ninas of all time, on the level of years like 1973-74, 1988-89, and 2010-11. 1917 was when global temperatures were at their minimum (2024, the warmest year on record, was nearly 2C warmer than 1917). I'd be willing to bet that either 1916-17 or 1917-18 was the coldest winter on record CONUS.

Interesting. Both 1916-17 & 1917-18 were cold winters here with slightly below avg snowfall. I'd bet anything it was a suppressed storm track with significant snow to my south. 

[donsutherland1]

23 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That one dropped 14-15" in my backyard just 30 miles east of Central Park, 20" a 20 minute drive south/east of me and 24" at Islip about 50 miles east of Manhattan. If only it could've developed a hair sooner. That of course was the last good nor'easter for this area. Tons of crap SWFE events (although there was the one decent front end 4-6" event last winter here), cutters, suppressed garbage and every other type of disappointment since. This ferocious Pacific jet pattern is tailor made to ruin the winter chances for the northern Mid Atlantic. As long as that persists our odds at anything different are piss poor at best. 

Yes. I recall it. I was visiting my sister in Patchogue.

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, FPizz said:

Yeah, maybe time to move on and make a post about the topic of this thread, which ive never seen you post about.  Odd that you choose to respond to every single post on this whole entire board when they say hey, maybe area x isn't warming as fast as say Philly. Not everything is equal.  Not every single post has to be about CC. Its nauseating that people like you, bluewave and tcc have to include it in every post you ever make.  We arent reverting back to 1900 anytime soon, so lets assume we ALL know that and move on. Michsnow is not Chesco

Perfect post! Its why so many dont post here anymore. Its so tiresome when posting FACTUAL data for MY area I get responses from people who dont live here posting unrelated graphs (always love the smoothed out random county average maps that come from some unknown "smoothing" and "quality control"). I discuss actual events/facts/trends for certain winters and then get a response with an unrelated chart of a mean temp. Happens every time. Its nauseating. Its like you have to stroke the climate change egos by mentioning it in EVERY SINGLE POST. And God forbid you post something about recent cold/snow and/or a warm/low snow winter of the past. Prepare for the wrath.

I grew up with an interest in weather for my region. Not in a gridded anamoly for the earth. 

[KakashiHatake2000]

soo what place would happen to recieve snow the most not trying to start a competition but just wondering whether it would be in the great lakes region or in the mid atlantic region or new england region or the southeast or where ever just all out of curiosity

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

You seem to have a very selective memory when it comes to posts and discussions in these various threads. What usually happens is that I discuss a forecast and pattern and add perspective to my post. I discuss how the individual forecast period or pattern relates to the greater pattern on the whole. Including weather history in the post adds an extra dimension which helps to explain and bring the pattern to life for the reader.

But you and some other posters will frequently respond with a post like your local area is different and it isn’t warming like the other areas are. Then I dig into the weather history for your local area and show that the pattern and trend is pretty much the same as other areas are. It’s you and other posters trying to claim that you live in an area which somehow seems to be defying the rest of the world’s trends or that it’s all just UHI.  If you didn’t try to claim that your area is somehow different from the other areas that I am discussing, then these threads wouldn’t keep going off topic. Since local weather and climate patterns are driven by broader global ones.

It isn’t fair that you are trying to shut down a discussion that stems from a comment that you made. Look, I get it that some people don’t enjoy the fact that the earth is warming. So it’s a natural defense mechanism to not acknowledge it. But this narrow perspective is incomplete and leads to less reliable forecasts based on climate states and patterns which no longer exist.

The other issue is that some posters view weather and climate through a political prism. This inevitably leads to a distorted perspective since a political belief is separate from issues dealing with the natural world like weather and climate. You will notice that I never bring up politics or policy perspectives. This is due to the fact that I am not really a political person. So you have to understand that recognizing the fact that the world is warming and it’s affecting our sensible weather on many levels doesn’t mean that I am advocating for any specific policies or programs. Since it’s up to each individual what types of policies they they want which is outside the scope of these threads. 

Most of your posts have a bias but are at least decent material. This one is not. Did it ever occur to you that everyone doesn't care that the earth is warming? I'd bet any money that the people in this forum who care the least are actually the one who live the most green, planet friendly lives. It isnt fair that hes tired of hearing the same crap over and over? Its downright bullying at times in here. Someone can reminisce about a past event of any kind and they get a cc lecture. Its gotten that bad in here. And if you think that every region is warming at the same rate then you really DONT understand climate as much as you claim to. 

With NYC last winter was much colder than you anticipated, so the focus was really on lack of NYC snowfall. Not that I blame you. Because the bottom line for most winter lovers is SNOW not temps. Which is why I could not care less how much this station or that station has warmed in 150 years (or the "quality controlled" maps which show more warming than any individual station). I care about snow and snowcover. And if youre looking for a decrease in those, I suggest either using old coop data with lots of missing data or perhaps using a unique dataset 1880-2025 which cuts out 1930-1970 so it will show a decrease in snowfall in SE MI. In fact, using the Ann Arbor data that was brought up (since its a crime to use a threaded first order station if its moved), days with snowcover have INCREASED since records began. 

I am not trying to sound mean but it comes across very over the top sometimes.

[michsnowfreak]

2 minutes ago, KakashiHatake2000 said:

soo what place would happen to recieve snow the most not trying to start a competition but just wondering whether it would be in the great lakes region or in the mid atlantic region or new england region or the southeast or where ever just all out of curiosity

It depends what your asking. Snow always falls most frequently in the Great Lakes regardless of pattern. If you are asking which region stands to do the best relative to their average, its probably hard to say this early.

[KakashiHatake2000]

oh gotcha thank you michsnowfreak interesting tidbit but was just curious about what place receives the most amount of snow if hopefully that makes sense

[donsutherland1]

17 minutes ago, KakashiHatake2000 said:

oh gotcha thank you michsnowfreak interesting tidbit but was just curious about what place receives the most amount of snow if hopefully that makes sense

The snowiest city could be Valdez, AK with average annual snowfall of 325.3" of snow.

[KakashiHatake2000]

oh wow that is a lot i wish i could live there but way too far to move what about east rockies or east of the mississippi river

[michsnowfreak]

26 minutes ago, KakashiHatake2000 said:

oh gotcha thank you michsnowfreak interesting tidbit but was just curious about what place receives the most amount of snow if hopefully that makes sense

You are welcome. Where are you located?

[KakashiHatake2000]

the south east united states but tennessee

[michsnowfreak]

1 minute ago, KakashiHatake2000 said:

the south east united states but tennessee

You likely will see some snow but places to your north see much more.