2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The WPAC SSTS up to this point are matching previous years that went on to see predominantly +WPO winters

I agree with you...as Chuck pointed out. Only positives for winter I suspect will be the EPO and some periods of blocking given the QBO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

None of our current teleconnection indices accurately capture the changes we have seen in the North Pacific since 2018-2019 that I have highlighted in my previous posts. The record ridge near the Aleutians and to the east of Japan and attendant shift north in the  storm track doesn’t fit neatly into either the Western Pacific oscillation of the North Pacific oscillation. Same goes for the record SSTs across the mid-latitudes of the North Pacific and Atlantic and subtropical ridge expansion. This is why the snowfall outcome was the same last winter with the strong -WPO interval in February as it had been with prior +WPO intervals. Both outcomes featured very strong Southeast Ridge patterns. 

I have pointed out to you before, the position of the PNA ridge also sucked, though......you are on this crusade to prove that replica patterns of the past are no longer producing. I don't think that is entirely true. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

July updated Euro seasonal still going with a La Nada:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_nino_plumes?base_time=202507010000&nino_area=NINO3-4

Here's a link to all the forecast parameters. It has cooled temps since the last run across NA and has a normal temps in Canada vs last run lending credence to the Cansips.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Long (Months)"]}

 

Something changed last season...irregardless of storm track, I think we are going to be seeing better antecedent air masses in southeast Canada this season, which will allow for more significant "front enders" that have been harder to come by in SNE and the northern mid Atlantic over the past several seasons.

[Yanksfan]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Something changed last season...irregardless of storm track, I think we are going to be seeing better antecedent air masses in southeast Canada this season, which will allow for more significant "front enders" that have been harder to come by in SNE and the northern mid Atlantic over the past several seasons.

What we need are benchmark tracks next winter something we never saw last winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Yanksfan said:

What we need are benchmark tracks next winter something we never saw last winter.

I wouldn't hold your breath on that with the +WPO/-PNA expectation.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have pointed out to you before, the position of the PNA ridge also sucked, though......you are on this crusade to prove that replica patterns of the past are no longer producing. I don't think that is entirely true. 

As I have pointed out, you are putting way too much stock in what the teleconnections have been to the north of the subtropics. No combination of WPO, EPO, PNA, AO, or NAO is going to produce a cold and snowy outcome along the I-95 corridor in the Northeast  provided that the winter subtropical ridge remains so robust.

We need a weaker Southeast Ridge/ Western Atlantic Ridge along with a much slower Pacific Jet. This is why even the -WPO, -EPO, +PNA, and record -AO -NAO block last February still produced a cutter with record snows in Toronto and Montreal with a rainstorm along the coast. The -5 sigma Greenland block linked up with the Southeast Ridge when in the past there would have been a deep trough underneath and a benchmark I-95 blizzard. 

The issue is the fast Pacific flow and robust subtropical ridges from Japan to Western Europe. So these ridges to the south joining with the ridges associated with the -WPO, -EPO, +PNA, -AO, and -NAO don’t leave any room for cold trough development under the ridges. 

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

How did it snow 10" in Florida? How did Valentine, Nebraska hit -31F when it was almost March? I was on this board saying that the pattern wasn't good for snow last February and that it wasn't going to snow.. I would dig it up, but there were like 10-15 posts about this in the Mid Atlantic forum. The NAO was south-based positive and there was High pressure in the North Pacific over the North Pacific High position. Plus it takes some time to detox the heavy -PNA/+AO that was the time before. Not a big anomaly. The big anomalies were Dec 2022 and March 2023, but teleconnection patterns aren't 100%, and sometimes other things dominate. Doesn't mean it's always going to be like that. I think we are going back to -NAO cold in the Winter time as Jan 2024 and Jan 2025 had this. The coastal SLP correlation is 5-6x greater in -NAO/+PNA than +NAO/-PNA. I should dig up those old posts... was saying it wasn't a great H5 pattern for snow that 5-7 day models were showing. We didn't have things at our latitude that were favoring cold and snow like a 50/50 low and NE N. Pacific low pressure.  

bluewave by your posts I would surmise that you are saying NYC is going to average 15"/snow/yr from here on out. No matter, regardless. I don't think that's going to happen... we might have a tough few years with the flux of some things still being unfavorable, but weather patterns wax and wane.. eventually we will enter a better pattern, and the global warming isn't that advanced yet. 

[GaWx]

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

As I have pointed out, you are putting way too much stock in what the teleconnections have been to the north of the subtropics. No combination of WPO, EPO, PNA, AO, or NAO is going to produce a cold and snowy outcome along the I-95 corridor in the Northeast  provided that the winter subtropical ridge remains so robust.

The issue is the fast Pacific flow and robust subtropical ridges from Japan to Western Europe. So these ridges to the south joining with the ridges associated with the -WPO, -EPO, +PNA, -AO, and -NAO don’t leave any room for cold trough development under the ridges. 

Last 10 yrs:

Subtropical Pac:

 

Subtropical ATL:

 

ATL MDR:

[snowman19]

What we need are benchmark tracks next winter something we never saw last winter.

What we need are benchmark tracks next winter something we never saw last winter.

Literally every single chance we had at a KU event last winter from the end of November right through the end of March from PHL to NYC to BOS imploded. It found every way possible and then some to avoid a major snowstorm in that corridor. It was surreal

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Literally every single chance we had at a KU event last winter from the end of November right through the end of March from PHL to NYC to BOS imploded. It found every way possible and then some to avoid a major snowstorm in that corridor. It was surreal

 

Down near Baltimore and DC it was a snowy January. I had snow on the ground pretty much the whole month. They had a 8-10" storm further south than I think another 6" storm.. it snowed like 15 days through the end of January.. not a horrible Winter. I understand further north it was drier, but sometimes early in the Winter the STJ is further south. 

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Down near Baltimore and DC it was a snowy January. I had snow on the ground pretty much the whole month. They had a 8-10" storm further south than I think another 6" storm.. it snowed like 15 days through the end of January.. not a horrible Winter. I understand further north it was drier, but sometimes early in the Winter the STJ is further south. 

Great Lakes cutters, I-95 to I84 huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks have been dominant since the 2018-2019 winter. This is what we have had with the much stronger Pacific Jet. 

With the Great Lakes Cutter track the fast Pacific flow carves out a trough out West and pumps the Southeast Ridge with an I-95 rainstorm. 

The hugger track has wave spacing issues due to too many short waves in the fast Pacific flow. So we get the brief light to sometimes moderate snows changing to rain.

Then there is the suppressed Southern Stream low due to the fast Pacific flow having a kicker trough coming into the West Coast. This doesn’t allow the Gulf low like the one last winter which gave record snows to the Gulf Coast to turn the corner and come up the coast. 

Then sometimes the lows come far enough north for DC to get snows but not areas further north. 

So the fast Pacific flow effectively turns off the benchmark snowstorm track. I hope we can see at least a small relaxation of this pattern in the coming years even if we still stay warm. Would take a warm and snowy La Niña winter like 16-17 and a weaker Pacific Jet in a second if I could get it. Wouldn’t mind a 60° day before of after some of the blizzards that season.  Now we just get the 60° days without the great snows. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

As I have pointed out, you are putting way too much stock in what the teleconnections have been to the north of the subtropics. No combination of WPO, EPO, PNA, AO, or NAO is going to produce a cold and snowy outcome along the I-95 corridor in the Northeast  provided that the winter subtropical ridge remains so robust.

We need a weaker Southeast Ridge/ Western Atlantic Ridge along with a much slower Pacific Jet. This is why even the -WPO, -EPO, +PNA, and record -AO -NAO block last February still produced a cutter with record snows in Toronto and Montreal with a rainstorm along the coast. The -5 sigma Greenland block linked up with the Southeast Ridge when in the past there would have been a deep trough underneath and a benchmark I-95 blizzard. 

The issue is the fast Pacific flow and robust subtropical ridges from Japan to Western Europe. So these ridges to the south joining with the

I just gave a reason why it didn't snow despite a +PNA and -WPO....the PNA ridge was too far west. How am I placing too much stock in the teleconnections??? You are the one that just said it didn't snow despite a -WPO period last season....

I would argue that the subtropical ridge won't remain so robust should the WPO flip negative....we argee the west Pacific warmth is largely responsible for that ridge, which is synonymous with a +WPO. This is largely why the past -PNA\-NAO intervals worked out better.....they were -WPO.

[Yanksfan]

57 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Literally every single chance we had at a KU event last winter from the end of November right through the end of March from PHL to NYC to BOS imploded. It found every way possible and then some to avoid a major snowstorm in that corridor. It was surreal

 

Okay I get your point. It’s never going to snow again.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

Okay I get your point. It’s never going to snow again.

There are a couple of posters in this thread that are passive aggressively hunting that very response.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Then sometimes the lows come far enough north for DC to get snows but not areas further north. 

So the fast Pacific flow effectively turns off the benchmark snowstorm track. I hope we can see at least a small relaxation of this pattern in the coming years even if we still stay warm. Would take a warm and snowy La Niña winter like 16-17 and a weaker Pacific Jet in a second if I could get it. Wouldn’t mind a 60° day before of after some of the blizzards that season.  Now we just get the 60° days without the great snows. 

16-17 had a very sharp cutoff right around PHL, which had 15 inches of snow that year (which was even below the 18-19 total). DC and Baltimore had about 3 inches of snow the entire winter, which puts it as one of the Top 10 least snowiest winters for those cities.

I personally don't want that type of season again. The next time, the cutoff may be further north, and it may make 01-02/11-12 look like child's play.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd kill for 2016-2017 right now...featured about normal snowfall and I haven't seem that since 2017-2018.

[rclab]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

Literally every single chance we had at a KU event last winter from the end of November right through the end of March from PHL to NYC to BOS imploded. It found every way possible and then some to avoid a major snowstorm in that corridor. It was surreal

 

 

1 hour ago, Yanksfan said:

Okay I get your point. It’s never going to snow again.

 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There are a couple of posters in this thread that are passive aggressively hunting that very response.

Understood! There is always a bright side……. As always ….

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Yanksfan said:

Okay I get your point. It’s never going to snow again.

We have been fortunate from Philly to Boston that it hasn’t happened yet. But it has come close at Philly. They managed to narrowly miss a complete shutout twice with 0.3” in 19-20 and 22-23. So they avoided the T from 72-73.

NYC also has avoided a complete shutout with their lowest season out of the last 7 coming in at 2.3” in 22-23.  Boston was able to stay over 5” with their low season coming in at 9.8” in 23-24.

People would really start to say it’s never going to snow again if Philly had a T or their first 0.0”. With a T to 0.9” in NYC and under 5.0” at Boston. Thankfully we are yet to see a snowfall season this low from Philly to Boston. 

[George001]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea I never said that at all or alluded to it dumbass

As someone who agrees with a lot of the points you are making, dude you need to cut this shit out. I’m all for calling idiots idiots, but look at Yanksfans post history, he is not some dumbass climate change denier. Seems to me like he was just busting your balls, that kind of response to a joke is uncalled for. 

[so_whats_happening]

On 7/4/2025 at 3:44 PM, bluewave said:

We have been seeing these lulls in recent years when the subtropical warming has increased faster than the tropics. But often by later in the season SST anomalies between the tropics and subtropics balance out. 

So the tropics sit quietly gaining record amounts of heat through the season with suppressed convection. But when the hurricanes do finally form later on, we get these rapidly intensifying hurricanes becoming majors right before landfall on the Gulf Coast. Different from the old days when most hurricanes seemed to weaken right before landfalling. 

It really has been interesting to follow more closely over the last 5 years how things have progressed. Im not ready to say the ITCZ is further north permanently or to be so going forward due to the warmer subtropics, as we had discussed about last season. It is noticeable of a change in overall TC behavior and numbers have changed a lot over the basins over the last half century or more. Colorado State keeps a pretty solid track of key things over each basin.

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&loc=northwestpacific

The bolded has pretty been the most notable change we have seen associated with the changing of climate. I would like to make a similar timeframe for ENSO and PDO to each basin to see how years were effected more so than others.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Geez....even the CFS isn't warm for the NE next winter. That thing is usually run by a tag team of Bluewave and snowman. Looks a lot like the CANSIPS at H5.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Solid Consensus for NDJ H5:

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Solid Consensus for NDJ H5:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm just messing around, before Bluewave drowns me in the warm pool or raindance badgers me about how differently the Mexican monsoon is behaving from those years....that's just kind of what those H5 looks remind me of.

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm just messing around, before Bluewave drowns me in the warm pool or raindance badgers me about how differently the Mexican monsoon is behaving from those years....that's just kind of what those H5 looks remind me of.

No problem. We need some levity in here after what has happened since 2018-2019. My only comment on the CanSIPS is that temperatures never match the forecasted 500 mb pattern.

Just look at the one month forecast for June to see what I am talking about. The 500mb forecast for June wasn’t bad. But the cold pool to the south was way overdone.

So this has also been happening with the La Niña winters showing so much cold to the north around the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Canada. If that Southeast Ridge verifies like it’s showing for the winter,  there will be much less cold to the north and the warmth to the south will be much more expansive.

500 mb pattern forecast not bad

 

 

Cold pool to the south never verified

 

 

[snowman19]

Geez....even the CFS isn't warm for the NE next winter. That thing is usually run by a tag team of Bluewave and snowman. Looks a lot like the CANSIPS at H5.

Ok JB lol

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

No problem. We need some levity in here after what has happened since 2018-2019. My only comment on the CanSIPS is that temperatures never match the forecasted 500 mb pattern.

Just look at the one month forecast for June to see what I am talking about. The 500mb forecast for June wasn’t bad. But the cold pool to the south was way overdone.

So this has also been happening with the La Niña winters showing so much cold to the north around the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Canada. If that Southeast Ridge verifies like it’s showing for the winter,  there will be much less cold to the north and the warmth to the south will be much more expansive.

500 mb pattern forecast not bad

 

 

Cold pool to the south never verified

 

 

But we can always pick out model errors with every model, short, medium, and/or long range. Cansips had a "relatively" decent forecast last winter and now the ever warm Cfs2 and arguably the latest Euro seasonal are looking similar to its forecast for this winter. They could all be right or wrong, but to pick out any one forecast from any one of them and say "it was wrong here, so I  don't trust it" is tantamount to saying all modeling is useless. If that's the way you feel, that's fine because sometimes they are, but to cherry pick one forecast doesn't support your case one iota it's going to be wrong. 

[snowman19]

But we can always pick out model errors with every model, short, medium, and/or long range. Cansips had a "relatively" decent forecast last winter and now the ever warm Cfs2 and arguably the latest Euro seasonal are looking similar to its forecast for this winter. They could all be right or wrong, but to pick out any one forecast from any one of them and say "it was wrong here, so I  don't trust it" is tantamount to saying all modeling is useless. If that's the way you feel, that's fine because sometimes they are, but to cherry pick one forecast doesn't support your case one iota it's going to be wrong. 

In all honesty taking any model seriously in July for Dec-Jan-Feb-Mar whether it shows whatever outcome (cold, warm…) you want or not is crazy. I don’t think anyone here is doing that though

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

But we can always pick out model errors with every model, short, medium, and/or long range. Cansips had a "relatively" decent forecast last winter and now the ever warm Cfs2 and arguably the latest Euro seasonal are looking similar to its forecast for this winter. They could all be right or wrong, but to pick out any one forecast from any one of them and say "it was wrong here, so I  don't trust it" is tantamount to saying all modeling is useless. If that's the way you feel, that's fine because sometimes they are, but to cherry pick one forecast doesn't support your case one iota it's going to be wrong. 

Models having inherent biases have nothing to do with cherry picking. They are a function of the way the models work. The CanSIPS is well known for showing too much cold where the troughs are forecast especially in the East. One of the few parts of the country that can verify colder than these seasonal forecasts is the Rockies and Upper Plains. But that doesn’t do the posters living in the I-95 corridor any good.

Plus the forecasts beyond one month are a crap shoot anyway. So don’t  get too attached to what any of the seasonal models are showing now for next winter. The CanSIPS and other models don’t have a ton of skill forecasting the 500mb pattern more than 30 days out. So we have to wait until the 1st of each month for the monthly forecast. Then adjust the temperatures warmer in the spots where a trough is indicated for models like the CanSIPS. With the exception of Western areas which can sometimes verify colder. But usually not the East.

The one model truism over the years is that the Southeast Ridge or general 500 mb heights in the East verify higher than forecast. This is why the heavy snows which were indicated as far south as NY Metro last February got pushed up into Canada from Toronto to Montreal. 

So understanding these model biases is essential if you want to have a better handle on the medium to long range and seasonal forecasts. 

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models having inherent biases have nothing to do with cherry picking. They are a function of the way the models work. The CanSIPS is well known for showing too much cold where the troughs are forecast especially in the East. One of the few parts of the country that can verify colder than these seasonal forecasts is the Rockies and Upper Plains. But that doesn’t do the posters living in the I-95 corridor any good.

Plus the forecasts beyond one month are a crap shoot anyway. So don’t  get too attached to what any of the seasonal models are showing now for next winter. The CanSIPS and other models don’t have a ton of skill forecasting the 500mb pattern more than 30 days out. So we have to wait until the 1st of each month for the monthly forecast. Then adjust the temperatures warmer in the spots where a trough is indicated for models like the CanSIPS. With the exception of Western areas which can sometimes verify colder. But usually not the East.

The one model truism over the years is that the Southeast Ridge or general 500 mb heights in the East verify higher than forecast. This is why the heavy snows which were indicated as far south as NY Metro last February got pushed up into Canada from Toronto to Montreal. 

So understanding these model biases is essential if you want to have a better handle on the medium to long range and seasonal forecasts. 

Chris,
 Very well said about model biases! I couldn’t agree with you more. When significant clearcut cold biases are identified, it isn’t cherry picking to point out a much too cold model verification. If a model is too cold and has too low H5 hts in the E 1/2 of the US, say, 75-80% of the time, it isn’t cherry picking. The same could be said for any identified clear cut biases for any model.