2025-2026 ENSO

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Is there a mechanism by which snowfall can increase? I just don't understand what magical change is going to take place that we "cycle" into a snowier period. Makes zero sense in a rapidly warming world. Laughably stupid.

Sure, there can still be snowier and colder winters from time to time, but I just don't see the current trend reversing? But maybe I am missing something?

During transition periods from cold to warm like 2010 to 2018 ,we got amazing snows due to the way the pattern was shifting. First, the warming process loaded the atmosphere with more moisture.

Second, the colder storm tracks to the south of the big cities had already been in place from 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15. But the signs that this was getting ready to change were evident with the pattern during December to March 2011-2012. March near the Great Lakes was one of the most anomalously warm months there since the 1800s with +15° degree warm departures.

The warmth continued into January 2013 and we had the Southeast Ridge briefly linking up with the -AO in December. Nemo in February was one of the greatest phasing blizzards with 50dBZ returns from snow which was a first for the Doppler radars which were installed back in the 1990s. Then it was winter cold and snow galore through March 2015.

Then in December 2015 the Northeast experienced one of the most anomalously warm months warm winter months ever going over +13. But the lingering cold storm track in January resulted in the greatest snowstorm near 30” around NYC.

2016-2017 followed as one of the warmest winters on record but there were blizzards after days in the 60s with record warmth. Then 17-18 featured our greatest 14 days of cold and snow this century from after Christmas into early January with the amazing benchmark 950mb blizzard.

Fast forward to February for our first 80° winter heat before the record snowy February. This continued into November 2018 with the record snowstorm. But the storm track became very warm that 2018-2019 winter with one cutter after another and nearly no snow during DJF. 

Since that 18-19 that warmer storm shift and much faster Pacific Jet, we have been getting more consistent record warmth a lower snowfall. So we were getting more extended warmth like 22-23 to 23-24 plus the very warm Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. So the cold storm tracks have been absent even this past winter when we had average to slightly below average cold. It was still 41° with a strong Southeast Ridge in NYC on the days with .25 or more of precipitation. So the warmer storm tracks muted the influence of the cold and snowfall was well below average again.

So the winter warming with first began to emerge in 11-12 has become more widespread. Then the warmer storm tracks with started in 18-19 have become more frequent. So when those 2 features become dominant it loads the dice for below normal to well below normal snow into the 2020s.

it would be nice if we could get at least get a brief return to colder storm tracks and better snows during the 2nd half of the 2020s. But the climate has already significantly warmed. The strength of the Pacific Jet hasn’t allowed benchmark colder storm tracks during the winter. Instead, it has been all cutters, huggers and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. But most on here would be happy with a 16-17 repeat with record warmth and a few nice blizzards. 

 

 

[snowman19]

Nothing worse than rain and high humidity.
The forecast busted here today it's been drier less humidity and mostly sunny FINALLY.
 

I have a feeling this is going to be a very wet and humid summer

[michsnowfreak]

49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

During transition periods from cold to warm like 2010 to 2018 ,we got amazing snows due to the way the pattern was shifting. First, the warming process loaded the atmosphere with more moisture.

Second, the colder storm tracks to the south of the big cities had already been in place from 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15. But the signs that this was getting ready to change were evident with the pattern during December to March 2011-2012. March near the Great Lakes was one of the most anomalously warm months there since the 1800s with +15° degree warm departures.

The warmth continued into January 2013 and we had the Southeast Ridge briefly linking up with the -AO in December. Nemo in February was one of the greatest phasing blizzards with 50dBZ returns from snow which was a first for the Doppler radars which were installed back in the 1990s. Then it was winter cold and snow galore through March 2015.

Then in December 2015 the Northeast experienced one of the most anomalously warm months warm winter months ever going over +13. But the lingering cold storm track in January resulted in the greatest snowstorm near 30” around NYC.

2016-2017 followed as one of the warmest winters on record but there were blizzards after days in the 60s with record warmth. Then 17-18 featured our greatest 14 days of cold and snow this century from after Christmas into early January with the amazing benchmark 950mb blizzard.

Fast forward to February for our first 80° winter heat before the record snowy February. This continued into November 2018 with the record snowstorm. But the storm track became very warm that 2018-2019 winter with one cutter after another and nearly no snow during DJF. 

Since that 18-19 that warmer storm shift and much faster Pacific Jet, we have been getting more consistent record warmth a lower snowfall. So we were getting more extended warmth like 22-23 to 23-24 plus the very warm Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. So the cold storm tracks have been absent even this past winter when we had average to slightly below average cold. It was still 41° with a strong Southeast Ridge in NYC on the days with .25 or more of precipitation. So the warmer storm tracks muted the influence of the cold and snowfall was well below average again.

So the winter warming with first began to emerge in 11-12 has become more widespread. Then the warmer storm tracks with started in 18-19 have become more frequent. So when those 2 features become dominant it loads the dice for below normal to well below normal snow into the 2020s.

it would be nice if we could get at least get a brief return to colder storm tracks and better snows during the 2nd half of the 2020s. But the climate has already significantly warmed. The strength of the Pacific Jet hasn’t allowed benchmark colder storm tracks during the winter. Instead, it has been all cutters, huggers and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. But most on here would be happy with a 16-17 repeat with record warmth and a few nice blizzards. 

 

 

You brought up the +15° departures in the upper midwest in March 2012 but left out the -15° departures in the same region in February 2015.

Then again, most of your analysis is nyc-based, which is fine, but it doesn't necessarily jive with other regions. We circle this discussion constantly lol. Since the hustoric stretch of winters ended in 2015, winters have trended much milder, but we've seen some record cold arctic blasts and heavy snow months as well. Then of course last winter threw everyone for a loop by being much, much colder than expected. I honestly can't wait to see what next winter brings.

[snowman19]

You brought up the +15° departures in the upper midwest in March 2012 but left out the -15° departures in the same region in February 2015.
Then again, most of your analysis is nyc-based, which is fine, but it doesn't necessarily jive with other regions. We circle this discussion constantly lol. Since the hustoric stretch of winters ended in 2015, winters have trended much milder, but we've seen some record cold arctic blasts and heavy snow months as well. Then of course last winter threw everyone for a loop by being much, much colder than expected. I honestly can't wait to see what next winter brings.

I think last winter’s cold was driven by the the +QBO/cold-ENSO. The +QBO/cold-ENSO combo very strongly supports the poleward ridging (-EPO) we saw. The cold was all -EPO driven. That combo also strongly supports a cold stratosphere, which is something else we saw last winter. StormchaserChuck pointed this out several times

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Is there a mechanism by which snowfall can increase? I just don't understand what magical change is going to take place that we "cycle" into a snowier period. Makes zero sense in a rapidly warming world. Laughably stupid.

Sure, there can still be snowier and colder winters from time to time, but I just don't see the current trend reversing? But maybe I am missing something?

Theoretically speaking, the combination of a better pattern relative to the atrocious regime of the past several years coupled with increased moisture owed to a warmer climate...not to mention any potential volcanic implications.

Surely you have considered this given that you are a bastion of objectivity on the topic, Mr. @TheClimateChanger...

[TheClimateChanger]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

During transition periods from cold to warm like 2010 to 2018 ,we got amazing snows due to the way the pattern was shifting. First, the warming process loaded the atmosphere with more moisture.

Second, the colder storm tracks to the south of the big cities had already been in place from 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15. But the signs that this was getting ready to change were evident with the pattern during December to March 2011-2012. March near the Great Lakes was one of the most anomalously warm months there since the 1800s with +15° degree warm departures.

The warmth continued into January 2013 and we had the Southeast Ridge briefly linking up with the -AO in December. Nemo in February was one of the greatest phasing blizzards with 50dBZ returns from snow which was a first for the Doppler radars which were installed back in the 1990s. Then it was winter cold and snow galore through March 2015.

Then in December 2015 the Northeast experienced one of the most anomalously warm months warm winter months ever going over +13. But the lingering cold storm track in January resulted in the greatest snowstorm near 30” around NYC.

2016-2017 followed as one of the warmest winters on record but there were blizzards after days in the 60s with record warmth. Then 17-18 featured our greatest 14 days of cold and snow this century from after Christmas into early January with the amazing benchmark 950mb blizzard.

Fast forward to February for our first 80° winter heat before the record snowy February. This continued into November 2018 with the record snowstorm. But the storm track became very warm that 2018-2019 winter with one cutter after another and nearly no snow during DJF. 

Since that 18-19 that warmer storm shift and much faster Pacific Jet, we have been getting more consistent record warmth a lower snowfall. So we were getting more extended warmth like 22-23 to 23-24 plus the very warm Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. So the cold storm tracks have been absent even this past winter when we had average to slightly below average cold. It was still 41° with a strong Southeast Ridge in NYC on the days with .25 or more of precipitation. So the warmer storm tracks muted the influence of the cold and snowfall was well below average again.

So the winter warming with first began to emerge in 11-12 has become more widespread. Then the warmer storm tracks with started in 18-19 have become more frequent. So when those 2 features become dominant it loads the dice for below normal to well below normal snow into the 2020s.

it would be nice if we could get at least get a brief return to colder storm tracks and better snows during the 2nd half of the 2020s. But the climate has already significantly warmed. The strength of the Pacific Jet hasn’t allowed benchmark colder storm tracks during the winter. Instead, it has been all cutters, huggers and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. But most on here would be happy with a 16-17 repeat with record warmth and a few nice blizzards. 

 

 

Snowfall is down across the board since 1989-1990, as shown by linear regression. So I don't think we need to posit some sort of "increase in moisture" was causing increased snowfall. I don't believe there is much evidence to support this hypothesis anyways. Winter precipitation is up less than one inch in most places since the 1800s, so that could only explain at most ~10-12" of additional snow since the 1800s [if temperatures permit], and the difference since the late 19th century is negligible. It was simply a period of natural variability favoring higher snowfall superimposed over a long term downward trend.

Here is Boston, just for an example.

At BOS, the linear regression goes from 52.5 -> 38.7. 

NYC has been a little luckier but still downward [maybe not statistically significant though]: 28.9 -> 25.9

PHL: 22.8 -> 19.9

DCA: 14.9 -> 11.2

BWI: 20.9 -> 15.1

A few additional inland sites:

MDT: 33.0 -> 22.7

IPT: 42.1 -> 25.7

AVP: 47.4 -> 30.5

Why do we need to blame everything on climate change? The higher snowfall period in the 2000s & 2010s, like the one in the mid 90s, was likely natural variability imposed on a downward trend. Recent years show natural variability acting in the same direction as trend, amplifying low snowfall years.

[roardog]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I have a feeling this is going to be a very wet and humid summer

Your buddy JB and Weatherbell in general are forecasting a wet summer on the east coast with near normal temperatures. So it looks like you agree with him. lol. They have big heat in the central part of the country. 

[Spartman]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I have a feeling this is going to be a very wet and humid summer

A very wet 2025 altogether, perhaps

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Snowfall is down across the board since 1989-1990, as shown by linear regression. So I don't think we need to posit some sort of "increase in moisture" was causing increased snowfall. I don't believe there is much evidence to support this hypothesis anyways. Winter precipitation is up less than one inch in most places since the 1800s, so that could only explain at most ~10-12" of additional snow since the 1800s [if temperatures permit], and the difference since the late 19th century is negligible. It was simply a period of natural variability favoring higher snowfall superimposed over a long term downward trend.

Here is Boston, just for an example.

At BOS, the linear regression goes from 52.5 -> 38.7. 

NYC has been a little luckier but still downward [maybe not statistically significant though]: 28.9 -> 25.9

PHL: 22.8 -> 19.9

DCA: 14.9 -> 11.2

BWI: 20.9 -> 15.1

A few additional inland sites:

MDT: 33.0 -> 22.7

IPT: 42.1 -> 25.7

AVP: 47.4 -> 30.5

Why do we need to blame everything on climate change? The higher snowfall period in the 2000s & 2010s, like the one in the mid 90s, was likely natural variability imposed on a downward trend. Recent years show natural variability acting in the same direction as trend, amplifying low snowfall years.

Something ironic and hypocritical about this....

I'm not sure how you can dispute that a warmer climate has more moisture available....if you want to argue that the warming will eventually become great enough where that won't matter in terms of snowfall, sure, but that doesn't seem like an entirely objective take. I agree with your last statement.....I think the current drought is attributable to both CC and natural variability....maybe more the former in the mid atlantic and the latter across southern New England.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The reality is that it's likely a combination of regression and CC that is leading to this snowfall drought along the east coast. I think its patently absurd to ignore the regression element after what happened last decade.

[LibertyBell]

On 5/15/2025 at 7:57 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

This has been a fine spring for Dayton, Ohio. A little on the wet side, but almost no snow and warm temperatures. In fact, if the month ended yesterday, this would go in the books as the 7th warmest spring at the Dayton International Airport (since 1936, excludes threaded records). And this doesn't even include today's torch.

People like to act as though it's supposed to be in the 90s all summer long, but that's just not how the climate works. There have been entire years where the hottest temperature observed at Dayton was only a handful of degrees above today's warmth. So I would urge everyone to enjoy the next couple of days, instead of fretting over whether it's going to be in the 60s and rainy next week. As JB says, "enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you've got."

 

it's disappointing, it's going to be in the 50s and raining just before Memorial Day weekend (at least there's a chance it might clear before the actual weekend.)

I thought CC was supposed to prevent this cold crap from happening when it's nearly summer. This is what everyone will be saying lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 5/16/2025 at 8:16 AM, bluewave said:

This wasn’t the case for many first order sites such as NYC. So recent snowfall measurements are inflated relative to the way snowfall was measured prior to the 1990s around NYC and to before 1950 in other locations. So boost pre-1950 snowfall totals by 15-20% and the majority of first order sites in the U.S. will show a steady decline since the late 1800s. Several stations already show a long term snowfall decline. So imagine how much steeper a decline we would have if the snowfall was measured as frequently as it is today. Plus places like NYC would use melted down gauge snow equivalents and not actual measurements like in the blizzard of 1888 using a simple 10:1 ratio which is very inaccurate when the 1800s were so cold with much higher ratios.

https://news.ucar.edu/14009/snowfall-measurement-flaky-history

As a hydrometeorological instructor in UCAR’s COMET program and a weather observer for the National Weather Service, I am keenly interested in weather trends. In this case, climate change is an important factor to explore, since we know that the heaviest precipitation events have intensified in many parts of the world (see related story: Torrents and droughts and twisters - oh my!).

But when we turn to snowstorms in the Northeast, or elsewhere in the U.S., there is an additional factor at work when comparing modern numbers with historical ones. Quite simply, our measuring techniques have changed, and we are not necessarily comparing apples to apples. In fact, the apparent trend toward bigger snowfalls is at least partially the result of new—and more accurate—ways of measuring snowfall totals. Climate studies carefully select a subset of stations with consistent snow records, or avoid the snowfall variable altogether.

Official measurement of snowfall these days uses a flat, usually white, surface called a snowboard (which pre-dates the popular winter sport equipment of the same name). The snowboard depth measurement is done ideally every 6 hours, but not more frequently, and the snow is cleared after each measurement. At the end of the snowfall, all of the measurements are added up for the storm total. 

NOAA’s cooperative climate observers and thousands of volunteers with the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow (CoCoRaHS), a nationwide observer network, are trained in this method. This practice first became standard at airports starting in the 1950s, but later at other official climate reporting sites, such as Manhattan’s Central Park, where 6-hourly measurements did not become routine until the 1990s.

Earlier in our weather history, the standard practice was to record snowfall amounts less frequently, such as every 12 or 24 hours, or even to take just one measurement of depth on the ground at the end of the storm.

You might think that one or two measurements per day should add up to pretty much the same as measurements taken every 6 hours during the storm. It’s a logical assumption, but you would be mistaken. Snow on the ground gets compacted as additional snow falls. Therefore, multiple measurements during a storm typically result in a higher total than if snowfall is derived from just one or two measurements per day.

That can make quite a significant difference. It turns out that it’s not uncommon for the snow on the ground at the end of a storm to be 15 to 20 percent less than the total that would be derived from multiple snowboard measurements.  As the cooperative climate observer for Boulder, Colorado, I examined the 15 biggest snowfalls of the last two decades, all measured at the NOAA campus in Boulder. The sum of the snowboard measurements averaged 17 percent greater than the maximum depth on the ground at the end of the storm. For a 20-inch snowfall, that would be a boost of 3.4 inches—enough to dethrone many close rivals on the top-10 snowstorm list that were not necessarily lesser storms!

Another common practice at the cooperative observing stations prior to 1950 did not involve measuring snow at all, but instead took the liquid derived from the snow and applied a 10:1 ratio (every inch of liquid equals ten inches of snow). This is no longer the official practice and has become increasingly less common since 1950. But it too introduces a potential low bias in historic snowfalls because in most parts of the country (and in the recent blizzard in the Northeast) one inch of liquid produces more than 10 inches of snow.

This means that many of the storms from the 1980s or earlier would probably appear in the record as bigger storms if the observers had used the currently accepted methodology. Now, for those of you northeasterners with aching backs from shoveling, I am not saying that your recent storm wasn’t big in places like Boston, Portland, or Long Island. But I am saying that some of the past greats—the February Blizzard of 1978, the Knickerbocker storm of January 1922, and the great Blizzard of March 1888—are probably underestimated.

So keep in mind when viewing those lists of snowy greats: the older ones are not directly comparable with those in recent decades. It’s not as bad as comparing apples to oranges, but it may be like comparing apples to crabapples.

Going forward, we can look for increasingly accurate snow totals. Researchers at NCAR and other organizations are studying new approaches for measuring snow more accurately (see related story: Snowfall, inch by inch).  

But we can’t apply those techniques to the past. For now, all we can say is that snowfall measurements taken more than about 20 or 30 years ago may be unsuitable for detecting trends – and perhaps snowfall records from the past should not be melting away quite as quickly as it appears.

Update • January 29, 2015 | Thanks to thoughtful feedback by several colleagues, this article has been updated. Paragraph 3 now includes a description of how climate studies handle the data inconsistencies. Paragraph 9 was added to describe the pre-1950s practice, no longer in wide use, of recording liquid water content only, and not snow depth.

Matt Kelsch is a hydrometeorologist in UCAR's COMET Program. He specializes in weather and climate events involving water, such as floods, droughts, rain, hail, or snow. Kelsch develops and delivers educational materials designed for both domestic and international groups including National Weather Service forecasters, the military, the World Meteorological Organization, university students and faculty, government agencies, and private industry.

 

 

 

Chris, can we do something different to compare recent storms with storms from the distant past to make the comparison more meaningful?  Instead of taking storms from the distant past and trying to apply modern measurement techniques, let's take modern storms and use the older methods on them.  For example, would the January 2016 31 inch measurement at JFK still be 30 inches or more using the old measurements? The liquid equivalent was 3.0 inches so it's still 30 inches using a 10:1 ratio.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

If the daily PNA gets near -2, that would be the first time since December 2021. CPC +PNA that we saw this Winter has not sustained. 

[LibertyBell]

On 5/16/2025 at 7:31 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nice Aleutian ridge on models (-PNA) May 21 - June 1. Here's the correlation with US Temps (opposite)

I wouldn't call this *nice* it's going to be cold and wet here.

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

No need to feed the troll. 

2013-14 wasn't just a good winter here, it was literally the most severe winter in recorded history.

2010-11 and 2014-15 were both in the top 3 for here.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I wouldn't call this *nice* it's going to be cold and wet here.

Because of a retrograding -NAO. 

But again, the NAO is not sustaining for more than a few days, and is rapidly going back and forth between positive and negative phases. bluewave was right in that observation. 

Longer term it should warm up around the beginning of June. 

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I have a feeling this is going to be a very wet and humid summer

like 2011?

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Because of a retrograding -NAO. 

But again, the NAO is not sustaining for more than a few days, and is rapidly going back and forth between positive and negative phases. bluewave was right in that observation. 

Longer term it should warm up around the beginning of June. 

Looks like Memorial Day weekend will be salvaged and beyond that, the heat out west in the Rockies will shift east for early June?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Looks like Memorial Day weekend will be salvaged and beyond that, the heat out west in the Rockies will shift east for early June?

I think we'll start warming up around the turn of the month. 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Something ironic and hypocritical about this....

I'm not sure how you can dispute that a warmer climate has more moisture available....if you want to argue that the warming will eventually become great enough where that won't matter in terms of snowfall, sure, but that doesn't seem like an entirely objective take. I agree with your last statement.....I think the current drought is attributable to both CC and natural variability....maybe more the former in the mid atlantic and the latter across southern New England.

I find it ironic he stated that snowfall has dropped since 1989-90 when the late 80s and early 90s were historically horrible for snowfall here!

 

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I think last winter’s cold was driven by the the +QBO/cold-ENSO. The +QBO/cold-ENSO combo very strongly supports the poleward ridging (-EPO) we saw. The cold was all -EPO driven. That combo also strongly supports a cold stratosphere, which is something else we saw last winter. StormchaserChuck pointed this out several times

using that info, it makes sense why we had  we had a pattern of cold/dry wet/mild alternating with each other.

 

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, bluewave said:

During transition periods from cold to warm like 2010 to 2018 ,we got amazing snows due to the way the pattern was shifting. First, the warming process loaded the atmosphere with more moisture.

Second, the colder storm tracks to the south of the big cities had already been in place from 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15. But the signs that this was getting ready to change were evident with the pattern during December to March 2011-2012. March near the Great Lakes was one of the most anomalously warm months there since the 1800s with +15° degree warm departures.

The warmth continued into January 2013 and we had the Southeast Ridge briefly linking up with the -AO in December. Nemo in February was one of the greatest phasing blizzards with 50dBZ returns from snow which was a first for the Doppler radars which were installed back in the 1990s. Then it was winter cold and snow galore through March 2015.

Then in December 2015 the Northeast experienced one of the most anomalously warm months warm winter months ever going over +13. But the lingering cold storm track in January resulted in the greatest snowstorm near 30” around NYC.

2016-2017 followed as one of the warmest winters on record but there were blizzards after days in the 60s with record warmth. Then 17-18 featured our greatest 14 days of cold and snow this century from after Christmas into early January with the amazing benchmark 950mb blizzard.

Fast forward to February for our first 80° winter heat before the record snowy February. This continued into November 2018 with the record snowstorm. But the storm track became very warm that 2018-2019 winter with one cutter after another and nearly no snow during DJF. 

Since that 18-19 that warmer storm shift and much faster Pacific Jet, we have been getting more consistent record warmth a lower snowfall. So we were getting more extended warmth like 22-23 to 23-24 plus the very warm Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. So the cold storm tracks have been absent even this past winter when we had average to slightly below average cold. It was still 41° with a strong Southeast Ridge in NYC on the days with .25 or more of precipitation. So the warmer storm tracks muted the influence of the cold and snowfall was well below average again.

So the winter warming with first began to emerge in 11-12 has become more widespread. Then the warmer storm tracks with started in 18-19 have become more frequent. So when those 2 features become dominant it loads the dice for below normal to well below normal snow into the 2020s.

it would be nice if we could get at least get a brief return to colder storm tracks and better snows during the 2nd half of the 2020s. But the climate has already significantly warmed. The strength of the Pacific Jet hasn’t allowed benchmark colder storm tracks during the winter. Instead, it has been all cutters, huggers and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. But most on here would be happy with a 16-17 repeat with record warmth and a few nice blizzards. 

 

 

I think 17-18 was a lot more fun than 16-17.

 

[snowman19]

using that info, it makes sense why we had  we had a pattern of cold/dry wet/mild alternating with each other.
 

The research shows that +QBO in combination with -ENSO supports poleward Aleutian ridging and a cold stratosphere during the cold months. On the opposite side, -QBO/-ENSO supports a flat/equatorial Aleutian ridge and a warm stratosphere during the cold months

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I think 17-18 was a lot more fun than 16-17.

 

Yeah, I don't recall any blizzards in 16-17. That one was a very low snowfall season, especially south of Philly. If I remember correctly, places like Baltimore and DC got like 3 inches of snow, putting it on par with low snowfall years like 11-12 and 12-13.

[snowman19]

Yeah, I don't recall any blizzards in 16-17. That one was a very low snowfall season, especially south of Philly. If I remember correctly, places like Baltimore and DC got like 3 inches of snow, putting it on par with low snowfall years like 11-12 and 12-13.

It followed the record breaking super El Niño of 15-16. The only reason the La Niña developed was because of the very strong -IOD that formed in the summer and fall or it would have been a 2nd year El Niño. That Nino was so strong that it completely altered the normal QBO progression, instead of progressing to a -QBO, which should have happened, it flipped right back to a +QBO that fall/winter

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

You brought up the +15° departures in the upper midwest in March 2012 but left out the -15° departures in the same region in February 2015.

Then again, most of your analysis is nyc-based, which is fine, but it doesn't necessarily jive with other regions. We circle this discussion constantly lol. Since the hustoric stretch of winters ended in 2015, winters have trended much milder, but we've seen some record cold arctic blasts and heavy snow months as well. Then of course last winter threw everyone for a loop by being much, much colder than expected. I honestly can't wait to see what next winter brings.

That Midwest warmth in March 2012 was more historic than the cold in 2015 was. The few months with -10 or more departures the CONUS since 2015 have been few and far between compared to the months over +10. This is a CONUS wide phenomenon and not just limited to one region. You can see how getting a +10 month nearly every winter since the 2015 higher temperature reset has become the norm while extreme cold is very isolated to places like Montana. Plus our Arctic outbreaks have shrunk the geographic footprint. So an Arctic outbreak into the Plains doesn’t extend all the way to the coast like it did as recently as the 1990s. 
 

Dec…2015….NYC….+13.3

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Not really a big deal imo in the context of this conversation. The PNA has been negative, and the NAO has been positive. 

There's a +1-2 global warming happening but that's the everything 

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it's disappointing, it's going to be in the 50s and raining just before Memorial Day weekend (at least there's a chance it might clear before the actual weekend.)

I thought CC was supposed to prevent this cold crap from happening when it's nearly summer. This is what everyone will be saying lol.

 

Spring has been well above normal thus far. CC can cause cutoff lows due to the anomalous blocking. The rest of the country is torching. We're the island in the ocean of warmth. 

[bluewave]

18 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Snowfall is down across the board since 1989-1990, as shown by linear regression. So I don't think we need to posit some sort of "increase in moisture" was causing increased snowfall. I don't believe there is much evidence to support this hypothesis anyways. Winter precipitation is up less than one inch in most places since the 1800s, so that could only explain at most ~10-12" of additional snow since the 1800s [if temperatures permit], and the difference since the late 19th century is negligible. It was simply a period of natural variability favoring higher snowfall superimposed over a long term downward trend.

Here is Boston, just for an example.

At BOS, the linear regression goes from 52.5 -> 38.7. 

NYC has been a little luckier but still downward [maybe not statistically significant though]: 28.9 -> 25.9

PHL: 22.8 -> 19.9

DCA: 14.9 -> 11.2

BWI: 20.9 -> 15.1

A few additional inland sites:

MDT: 33.0 -> 22.7

IPT: 42.1 -> 25.7

AVP: 47.4 -> 30.5

Why do we need to blame everything on climate change? The higher snowfall period in the 2000s & 2010s, like the one in the mid 90s, was likely natural variability imposed on a downward trend. Recent years show natural variability acting in the same direction as trend, amplifying low snowfall years.

2010 to 2018 wasn’t natural variability since the reason the snow increased was due to the warmer atmosphere holding more moisture while the storm tracks remained cold.