2025-2026 ENSO

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Is there a mechanism by which snowfall can increase? I just don't understand what magical change is going to take place that we "cycle" into a snowier period. Makes zero sense in a rapidly warming world. Laughably stupid.

Sure, there can still be snowier and colder winters from time to time, but I just don't see the current trend reversing? But maybe I am missing something?

During transition periods from cold to warm like 2010 to 2018 ,we got amazing snows due to the way the pattern was shifting. First, the warming process loaded the atmosphere with more moisture.

Second, the colder storm tracks to the south of the big cities had already been in place from 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15. But the signs that this was getting ready to change were evident with the pattern during December to March 2011-2012. March near the Great Lakes was one of the most anomalously warm months there since the 1800s with +15° degree warm departures.

The warmth continued into January 2013 and we had the Southeast Ridge briefly linking up with the -AO in December. Nemo in February was one of the greatest phasing blizzards with 50dBZ returns from snow which was a first for the Doppler radars which were installed back in the 1990s. Then it was winter cold and snow galore through March 2015.

Then in December 2015 the Northeast experienced one of the most anomalously warm months warm winter months ever going over +13. But the lingering cold storm track in January resulted in the greatest snowstorm near 30” around NYC.

2016-2017 followed as one of the warmest winters on record but there were blizzards after days in the 60s with record warmth. Then 17-18 featured our greatest 14 days of cold and snow this century from after Christmas into early January with the amazing benchmark 950mb blizzard.

Fast forward to February for our first 80° winter heat before the record snowy February. This continued into November 2018 with the record snowstorm. But the storm track became very warm that 2018-2019 winter with one cutter after another and nearly no snow during DJF. 

Since that 18-19 that warmer storm shift and much faster Pacific Jet, we have been getting more consistent record warmth a lower snowfall. So we were getting more extended warmth like 22-23 to 23-24 plus the very warm Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. So the cold storm tracks have been absent even this past winter when we had average to slightly below average cold. It was still 41° with a strong Southeast Ridge in NYC on the days with .25 or more of precipitation. So the warmer storm tracks muted the influence of the cold and snowfall was well below average again.

So the winter warming with first began to emerge in 11-12 has become more widespread. Then the warmer storm tracks with started in 18-19 have become more frequent. So when those 2 features become dominant it loads the dice for below normal to well below normal snow into the 2020s.

it would be nice if we could get at least get a brief return to colder storm tracks and better snows during the 2nd half of the 2020s. But the climate has already significantly warmed. The strength of the Pacific Jet hasn’t allowed benchmark colder storm tracks during the winter. Instead, it has been all cutters, huggers and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. But most on here would be happy with a 16-17 repeat with record warmth and a few nice blizzards. 

 

 

[snowman19]

Nothing worse than rain and high humidity.
The forecast busted here today it's been drier less humidity and mostly sunny FINALLY.
 

I have a feeling this is going to be a very wet and humid summer

[michsnowfreak]

49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

During transition periods from cold to warm like 2010 to 2018 ,we got amazing snows due to the way the pattern was shifting. First, the warming process loaded the atmosphere with more moisture.

Second, the colder storm tracks to the south of the big cities had already been in place from 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15. But the signs that this was getting ready to change were evident with the pattern during December to March 2011-2012. March near the Great Lakes was one of the most anomalously warm months there since the 1800s with +15° degree warm departures.

The warmth continued into January 2013 and we had the Southeast Ridge briefly linking up with the -AO in December. Nemo in February was one of the greatest phasing blizzards with 50dBZ returns from snow which was a first for the Doppler radars which were installed back in the 1990s. Then it was winter cold and snow galore through March 2015.

Then in December 2015 the Northeast experienced one of the most anomalously warm months warm winter months ever going over +13. But the lingering cold storm track in January resulted in the greatest snowstorm near 30” around NYC.

2016-2017 followed as one of the warmest winters on record but there were blizzards after days in the 60s with record warmth. Then 17-18 featured our greatest 14 days of cold and snow this century from after Christmas into early January with the amazing benchmark 950mb blizzard.

Fast forward to February for our first 80° winter heat before the record snowy February. This continued into November 2018 with the record snowstorm. But the storm track became very warm that 2018-2019 winter with one cutter after another and nearly no snow during DJF. 

Since that 18-19 that warmer storm shift and much faster Pacific Jet, we have been getting more consistent record warmth a lower snowfall. So we were getting more extended warmth like 22-23 to 23-24 plus the very warm Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. So the cold storm tracks have been absent even this past winter when we had average to slightly below average cold. It was still 41° with a strong Southeast Ridge in NYC on the days with .25 or more of precipitation. So the warmer storm tracks muted the influence of the cold and snowfall was well below average again.

So the winter warming with first began to emerge in 11-12 has become more widespread. Then the warmer storm tracks with started in 18-19 have become more frequent. So when those 2 features become dominant it loads the dice for below normal to well below normal snow into the 2020s.

it would be nice if we could get at least get a brief return to colder storm tracks and better snows during the 2nd half of the 2020s. But the climate has already significantly warmed. The strength of the Pacific Jet hasn’t allowed benchmark colder storm tracks during the winter. Instead, it has been all cutters, huggers and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. But most on here would be happy with a 16-17 repeat with record warmth and a few nice blizzards. 

 

 

You brought up the +15° departures in the upper midwest in March 2012 but left out the -15° departures in the same region in February 2015.

Then again, most of your analysis is nyc-based, which is fine, but it doesn't necessarily jive with other regions. We circle this discussion constantly lol. Since the hustoric stretch of winters ended in 2015, winters have trended much milder, but we've seen some record cold arctic blasts and heavy snow months as well. Then of course last winter threw everyone for a loop by being much, much colder than expected. I honestly can't wait to see what next winter brings.

[snowman19]

You brought up the +15° departures in the upper midwest in March 2012 but left out the -15° departures in the same region in February 2015.
Then again, most of your analysis is nyc-based, which is fine, but it doesn't necessarily jive with other regions. We circle this discussion constantly lol. Since the hustoric stretch of winters ended in 2015, winters have trended much milder, but we've seen some record cold arctic blasts and heavy snow months as well. Then of course last winter threw everyone for a loop by being much, much colder than expected. I honestly can't wait to see what next winter brings.

I think last winter’s cold was driven by the the +QBO/cold-ENSO. The +QBO/cold-ENSO combo very strongly supports the poleward ridging (-EPO) we saw. The cold was all -EPO driven. That combo also strongly supports a cold stratosphere, which is something else we saw last winter. StormchaserChuck pointed this out several times

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Is there a mechanism by which snowfall can increase? I just don't understand what magical change is going to take place that we "cycle" into a snowier period. Makes zero sense in a rapidly warming world. Laughably stupid.

Sure, there can still be snowier and colder winters from time to time, but I just don't see the current trend reversing? But maybe I am missing something?

Theoretically speaking, the combination of a better pattern relative to the atrocious regime of the past several years coupled with increased moisture owed to a warmer climate...not to mention any potential volcanic implications.

Surely you have considered this given that you are a bastion of objectivity on the topic, Mr. @TheClimateChanger...

[TheClimateChanger]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

During transition periods from cold to warm like 2010 to 2018 ,we got amazing snows due to the way the pattern was shifting. First, the warming process loaded the atmosphere with more moisture.

Second, the colder storm tracks to the south of the big cities had already been in place from 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15. But the signs that this was getting ready to change were evident with the pattern during December to March 2011-2012. March near the Great Lakes was one of the most anomalously warm months there since the 1800s with +15° degree warm departures.

The warmth continued into January 2013 and we had the Southeast Ridge briefly linking up with the -AO in December. Nemo in February was one of the greatest phasing blizzards with 50dBZ returns from snow which was a first for the Doppler radars which were installed back in the 1990s. Then it was winter cold and snow galore through March 2015.

Then in December 2015 the Northeast experienced one of the most anomalously warm months warm winter months ever going over +13. But the lingering cold storm track in January resulted in the greatest snowstorm near 30” around NYC.

2016-2017 followed as one of the warmest winters on record but there were blizzards after days in the 60s with record warmth. Then 17-18 featured our greatest 14 days of cold and snow this century from after Christmas into early January with the amazing benchmark 950mb blizzard.

Fast forward to February for our first 80° winter heat before the record snowy February. This continued into November 2018 with the record snowstorm. But the storm track became very warm that 2018-2019 winter with one cutter after another and nearly no snow during DJF. 

Since that 18-19 that warmer storm shift and much faster Pacific Jet, we have been getting more consistent record warmth a lower snowfall. So we were getting more extended warmth like 22-23 to 23-24 plus the very warm Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. So the cold storm tracks have been absent even this past winter when we had average to slightly below average cold. It was still 41° with a strong Southeast Ridge in NYC on the days with .25 or more of precipitation. So the warmer storm tracks muted the influence of the cold and snowfall was well below average again.

So the winter warming with first began to emerge in 11-12 has become more widespread. Then the warmer storm tracks with started in 18-19 have become more frequent. So when those 2 features become dominant it loads the dice for below normal to well below normal snow into the 2020s.

it would be nice if we could get at least get a brief return to colder storm tracks and better snows during the 2nd half of the 2020s. But the climate has already significantly warmed. The strength of the Pacific Jet hasn’t allowed benchmark colder storm tracks during the winter. Instead, it has been all cutters, huggers and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. But most on here would be happy with a 16-17 repeat with record warmth and a few nice blizzards. 

 

 

Snowfall is down across the board since 1989-1990, as shown by linear regression. So I don't think we need to posit some sort of "increase in moisture" was causing increased snowfall. I don't believe there is much evidence to support this hypothesis anyways. Winter precipitation is up less than one inch in most places since the 1800s, so that could only explain at most ~10-12" of additional snow since the 1800s [if temperatures permit], and the difference since the late 19th century is negligible. It was simply a period of natural variability favoring higher snowfall superimposed over a long term downward trend.

Here is Boston, just for an example.

At BOS, the linear regression goes from 52.5 -> 38.7. 

NYC has been a little luckier but still downward [maybe not statistically significant though]: 28.9 -> 25.9

PHL: 22.8 -> 19.9

DCA: 14.9 -> 11.2

BWI: 20.9 -> 15.1

A few additional inland sites:

MDT: 33.0 -> 22.7

IPT: 42.1 -> 25.7

AVP: 47.4 -> 30.5

Why do we need to blame everything on climate change? The higher snowfall period in the 2000s & 2010s, like the one in the mid 90s, was likely natural variability imposed on a downward trend. Recent years show natural variability acting in the same direction as trend, amplifying low snowfall years.