Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I wouldn't be shocked if the models shift after tonight's storm leaves.

When did this turn into a Midwest snow pattern? Haha

[winterwx21]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It will be wrong 

This morning you said the pattern favors a north trend. Hopefully this RGEM run is a good sign. 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

This morning you said the pattern favors a north trend. Hopefully this RGEM run is a good sign. 

The trend today has been weaker with Tuesdays energy and putting all the energy into Thursday. It’s over for Tuesday outside central Va 

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I wouldn't be shocked if the models shift after tonight's storm leaves.

We'll get something from each of these next 2 storms, enjoy it, who knows when it'll snow again after next Tuesday.

 

[Krs4Lfe]

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We'll get something from each of these next 2 storms, enjoy it, who knows when it'll snow again after next Tuesday.

 

If I had to wager a guess, I’d say it’s last snow until next winter. Maybe Tuesday storm can push north a bit but I wouldn’t count on it. Thursday looks like a big Rainer. Next weekend to be determined.

[Allsnow]

18z euro bumped north 

[SnowGoose69]

18Z Euro is trying hard, drops over .30 liquid at JFK.  I think what is happening on some ensembles and some model runs now is that the the next system digging down into the SRN plains may be pumping the SER downstream which causes the late north push of the first wave.  I had said yesterday sometimes these setups there can be late push N that gets eastern parts of the area but this may be aiding by the trailing system

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

18Z Euro is trying hard, drops over .30 liquid at JFK.  I think what is happening on some ensembles and some model runs now is that the the next system digging down into the SRN plains may be pumping the SER downstream which causes the late north push of the first wave.  I had said yesterday sometimes these setups there can be late push N that gets eastern parts of the area but this may be aiding by the trailing system

It helped that a stronger piece of energy came out of the sw 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

18Z Euro is trying hard, drops over .30 liquid at JFK.  I think what is happening on some ensembles and some model runs now is that the the next system digging down into the SRN plains may be pumping the SER downstream which causes the late north push of the first wave.  I had said yesterday sometimes these setups there can be late push N that gets eastern parts of the area but this may be aiding by the trailing system

the best part is it's going to be all snow

 

[Franklin0529]

Euro is keying on that more potent 2nd wave instead of that weak 1st wave. 

[Allsnow]

EPS is stronger with the wave Tuesday night which pumps hgts along the east coast 

 

mean 2-3 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

The trend today has been weaker with Tuesdays energy and putting all the energy into Thursday. It’s over for Tuesday outside central Va 

It's not over until we say it is!  Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?!

[Allsnow]

Just now, RU848789 said:

It's not over until we say it is!  Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?!

No skating on Tommy’s pond this winter? 

[TJW014]

5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

It's not over until we say it is!  Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?!

[Allsnow]

AI with a big jump north at 18z 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Man this winter is wild with the 1-3 events lmao 

[winterwx21]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

The trend today has been weaker with Tuesdays energy and putting all the energy into Thursday. It’s over for Tuesday outside central Va 

I think it's too early to call it over. I don't think it will trend far enough north to give us a big snowstorm, but a few inches is certainly possible. 

[winterwx21]

4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Man this winter is wild with the 1-3 events lmao 

I hope we get a bigger event at some point so we can end up at near average snowfall, but if that doesn't happen it at least appears we'll be able to nickel and dime our way to 20 inches. Below average but not terrible. 

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I think it's too early to call it over. I don't think it will trend far enough north to give us a big snowstorm, but a few inches is certainly possible. 

something like 3-5 inches in places like SI/JFK maybe is the ceiling.  I felt a couple of days ago a total whiff was more likely than now

[Yanksfan]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

AI with a big jump north at 18z 

Snow map please.

[TJW014]

17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

AI with a big jump north at 18z 

Looks about a 30 mile shift to the north. NYC and LI see 0.3" qpf. About 0.5" qpf right over me

[wishcast_hater]

something like 3-5 inches in places like SI/JFK maybe is the ceiling.  I felt a couple of days ago a total whiff was more likely than now

What’s the chances of this coming further north?


.

[MJO812]

Nam is also north from 18z

[Franklin0529]

10 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

What’s the chances of this coming further north?


.

It's focusing more on the second wave. Euro came north a good bit so did the AI. Also I know it's the nam at range, but it's looks really juicy and like it would be North 

[Franklin0529]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Nam is also north from 18z

Ninja'd

[nycsnow]

Nam looks great 

Image

 

[nycsnow]

More to come

Image

 

 

[nycsnow]

rgem good

still snowing after this 

Image

 

[Allsnow]

Gfs further north 

[Irish]

It's coming back!!