Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

[wdrag]

This coming weekend Feb 8-9 NORTHEAST USA near and west of I95 through the 184 corridor: Another mixed wintry event with delays and cancellations likely, especially later Saturday into Sunday morning. Timing might be in error as we're 5 days in advance.  

QPF is ensembled similarly to the 2/5-6 event, somewhere between 1/4-3/4". For now the attached ensembles favor I84 corridor down to the interior of I95 with more risk of rain and melting NYC-LI. The presented ensembles can be in significant max latitude (n/s) axis error 5-6 days in advance of the occurrence.

It is a trackable event, in what looks like a train of events for February...some of which can veer off and disappoint but we're at least in the wintry mix game. 

Ensembles include the midnight 2/3 WPC D6 outlook confidence of >1/4" melted water equivalent snow sleet. (blue is greater than 50%, pretty good for D6. Other ensembles 24 hr snowfall (10 to 1 ratio), an ensemble that only shows positive snow depth change, and an ensemble probability of >0.10 qpf that is ice.  This usually shrinks a bit as we draw closer to T0.  752A Mon 2/3/25

 

 

 

[MJO812]

Few inches turning to a mix or rain for many areas on gfs.

[RockawayRowdies]

Hopefully all gone before folks drive for Superbowl parties..

[Allsnow]

Euro 2-4 with the most in central nj 

[MJO812]

Gfs is further south with more snow for the area

[MJO812]

Gefs  further south 

[MJO812]

Euro also got colder for this event 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro also got colder for this event 

Yes, thump ends up being more of a central jersey event but it will move around 

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yes, thump ends up being more of a central jersey event but it will move around 

Eps also south 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps also south 

The euro AI has been doing so well inside 5 days 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

The euro AI has been doing so well inside 5 days 

It has been solid inside 5 days.  Very impressive  .

[wdrag]

NWS Day 5 probs are increasing for advisory-possible warning amounts of snow-ice. Use the legend. 

[SnowGoose69]

Wide range of risk on this one, anything from about the same as the 2/6 event to significantly snowier is possible.  

[Stormlover74]

Euro would be alot of frozen Saturday night

[wdrag]

8 hours ago, wdrag said:

NWS Day 5 probs are increasing for advisory-possible warning amounts of snow-ice. Use the legend. 

Can’t post til 630 but the new D5 is up 20%

[Allsnow]

36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro would be alot of frozen Saturday night

2 inch line down to TTN on the eps 24 hour mean 

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

Gefs flatter for this storm

[wdrag]

WPC midday D5 outlook. Pretty high prob for >.25 frozen.  

[MJO812]

Icon

[MJO812]

Gfs coming in flatter for superbowl

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs coming in flatter for superbowl

Which is probably not great. We want a strong thump. Weaker precip won't help 

[MJO812]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Which is probably not great. We want a strong thump. Weaker precip won't help 

 

[brooklynwx99]

comparing the two setups, this one is more favorable for front end snow for NYC. lower downstream heights in SE Canada help

[MJO812]

Cmc is also colder

[winterwx21]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is also colder

Let's hope we'll be shoveling Sunday morning before the Super Bowl. 

[MJO812]

Ukie looks good for this weekend. Have to see it on the better maps.

[MJO812]

Ukie is a nice thump for Sunday

[binbisso]

All the models except the euro hasa very snowy super bowl Sunday morning.  Definitely trending colder on guidance 

[wdrag]

WPC updated overnight D4 outlook now... probs are very high interior. I95 eastward is still problematic with mix etc.