Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[kvegas-wx]

20 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Looking at the 12k, I think we can toss the surface depiction. Play the loop quickly. Something is wrong - likely some sort of feedback issue. I thought it was picking up on some convective nuances with the splotchiness but it actually just looks like it spazzes out and glitches. 

Everything you said here is the equivilent of me just watching Stranger Things.  As a matter of fact, what do you want to bet they are having a Miller A in the Upside Down!  It's the only thing that makes sense! 

[CentralNC]

4 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Everything you said here is the equivilent of me just watching Stranger Things.  As a matter of fact, what do you want to bet they are having a Miller A in the Upside Down!  It's the only thing that makes sense! 

Show me the bedsheet.  Ready to crawl up/down there!

[BooneWX]

https://x.com/contentwxguy/status/1997357683729375599?s=46
 

a good read on the long range from one of the best at reading it

[BornAgain13]

0z Model Suite coming in Hot! Hopefully the rest of tonight's runs and tomorrow morning keep trending up.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

All of this is really good considering the NAM can also be biased towards the low end of QPF in the long range. 

And tends sniff out warm noses well, although this looks like surface temperatures will be the bigger challenge instead of aloft 

[wncsnow]

Yeah boundary layer temps look like an issue 

[wncsnow]

And as other models beef up, the GFS looks a little more meager with precip this run

[BornAgain13]

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

And as other models beef up, the GFS looks a little more meager with precip this run

Still a solid run for sure!

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Still a solid run for sure!

Not bad. I was hoping for it to continue increasing amounts. It was a slight decrease but similar overall

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

Looks similar to previous run to me.


.

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

Looks similar to previous run to me.


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Its similar slightly less QPF western areas. 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

I wouldn’t worry about GFS losing some precipitation with NAM looking better.


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[BornAgain13]

0z CMC fairly robust as well.

[kvegas-wx]

We're going to wake up to some advisories tomorrow?  This is looking more legit than Friday's whiff and we cancelled school from VA to FL for that nonsense!  Models definitely not backing down inside of 48 hours.  

[BornAgain13]

Most guidance continues to be fairly bullish for accumulating snow tomorrow. @BooneWX how does the GRAF look? Lol

[Buddy1987]

Really different type of setup for this neck of the woods for tomorrow. Has Norlun Trough like characteristics, whereas those setups normally happen more in the Northeast. Inverted trough looks to enhance precip. Someone may get a decent surprise out of this. 

[BornAgain13]

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Really different type of setup for this neck of the woods for tomorrow. Has Norlun Trough like characteristics, whereas those setups normally happen more in the Northeast. Inverted trough looks to enhance precip. Someone may get a decent surprise out of this. 

Really could be interesting! 

[olafminesaw]

Models more or less hold steady overnight. Temps going to be an issue even as the heavier snow moves through, holding in the mid 30s in the Triad per model consensus. Probably would be a bit colder in the heaviest bands, but if the better dynamics are north of the VA border as the Euro and RGEM show, we could get blanked again

[wncsnow]

Short-range all trended a bit north, sound familiar? Most accumulation in VA or NC mountains

[strongwxnc]

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Short-range all trended a bit north, sound familiar? Most accumulation in VA or NC mountains

 

Feels familiar.  Also the lee side hole is very familiar  

[BornAgain13]

9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Short-range all trended a bit north, sound familiar? Most accumulation in VA or NC mountains

I saw this and was like... here we go lol

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[SUNYGRAD]

I swear the atmosphere has muscle memory sometimes. The northern shift creates eye strain and even some tears for us in NC.  

[BornAgain13]

12z FV3 still about the same. 

[BornAgain13]

12z 12K NAM is pretty aggressive up this way but its a small area that gets thumped. 

[PackGrad05]

The 12Z HRRR is not much different than the 6Z when you look at total moisture and placement....

The difference with the snowfall map is due to difference in temperatures which keep most of it cold rain for the areas that are "blanked."
I'm not surprised by this because the cold air is chasing the moisture and surface temps will likely be above freezing until sunset.  So there could definitely be a mix or snow falling, but not sticking.  

[BornAgain13]

The 3k NAM is a thing of beauty

[wncsnow]

5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The 3k NAM is a thing of beauty

Its slightly south of 6Z. Hopefully the northern trend stops 

[PackGrad05]

Seeing the classic pattern in the high-res models of mountain snow, followed by a piedmont lull, and a NE NC jackpot.

[BooneWX]

I complain about my area quite a bit but idk if anyone has been in the screw zone across the entirety of the southeast moreso than Charlotte. Truly feel bad for snow lovers in that area. Extra salt in the wound that Raleigh is about to score again.