Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[kvegas-wx]

20 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Looking at the 12k, I think we can toss the surface depiction. Play the loop quickly. Something is wrong - likely some sort of feedback issue. I thought it was picking up on some convective nuances with the splotchiness but it actually just looks like it spazzes out and glitches. 

Everything you said here is the equivilent of me just watching Stranger Things.  As a matter of fact, what do you want to bet they are having a Miller A in the Upside Down!  It's the only thing that makes sense! 

[CentralNC]

4 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Everything you said here is the equivilent of me just watching Stranger Things.  As a matter of fact, what do you want to bet they are having a Miller A in the Upside Down!  It's the only thing that makes sense! 

Show me the bedsheet.  Ready to crawl up/down there!

[BooneWX]

https://x.com/contentwxguy/status/1997357683729375599?s=46
 

a good read on the long range from one of the best at reading it

[BornAgain13]

0z Model Suite coming in Hot! Hopefully the rest of tonight's runs and tomorrow morning keep trending up.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

All of this is really good considering the NAM can also be biased towards the low end of QPF in the long range. 

And tends sniff out warm noses well, although this looks like surface temperatures will be the bigger challenge instead of aloft 

[wncsnow]

Yeah boundary layer temps look like an issue 

[wncsnow]

And as other models beef up, the GFS looks a little more meager with precip this run

[BornAgain13]

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

And as other models beef up, the GFS looks a little more meager with precip this run

Still a solid run for sure!

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Still a solid run for sure!

Not bad. I was hoping for it to continue increasing amounts. It was a slight decrease but similar overall

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

Looks similar to previous run to me.


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[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

Looks similar to previous run to me.


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Its similar slightly less QPF western areas. 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

I wouldn’t worry about GFS losing some precipitation with NAM looking better.


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[BornAgain13]

0z CMC fairly robust as well.

[kvegas-wx]

We're going to wake up to some advisories tomorrow?  This is looking more legit than Friday's whiff and we cancelled school from VA to FL for that nonsense!  Models definitely not backing down inside of 48 hours.