WinstonSalemArlington Posted Saturday at 11:49 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:49 PM Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Sunday at 12:07 AM Share Posted Sunday at 12:07 AM 18z GFS is brrrrr... after day 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Sunday at 12:25 AM Share Posted Sunday at 12:25 AM 17 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z GFS is brrrrr... after day 10 But GFS has been trash so much this year that I need Euro onboard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Sunday at 12:38 AM Share Posted Sunday at 12:38 AM 12 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: But GFS has been trash so much this year that I need Euro onboard Beyond trash, it’s been absolutely useless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Sunday at 01:29 AM Share Posted Sunday at 01:29 AM https://x.com/RealColdRain/status/1987327115432485264?t=YnAHdUtJ1jiwSxkbIsKdpw&s=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted Sunday at 01:33 AM Share Posted Sunday at 01:33 AM 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: https://x.com/RealColdRain/status/1987327115432485264?t=YnAHdUtJ1jiwSxkbIsKdpw&s=19 Is that the "real" cold rain? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Sunday at 01:44 AM Share Posted Sunday at 01:44 AM What id give to see that look a month from now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 01:53 AM Share Posted Sunday at 01:53 AM 4 hours ago, franklin NCwx said: Is that the "real" cold rain? And also the real “Rain Cold” as he is also known. Based on ensemble 2 week progs, the -NAO for Nov overall is quite possibly (or even probably) going to end up the strongest in Nov since 2010. 2000 is a Nov strong -NAO, late Nov weak SPV, and active sunspots analog. If the MJO were to keep going and get into 7/8/1/2/3 in Dec, that would also be like 2000. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Sunday at 01:54 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 01:54 AM 9 minutes ago, BooneWX said: What id give to see that look a month from now I think we will have some through Christmas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Sunday at 02:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:19 PM HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 02:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:34 PM The current and recent KCHS NWS forecasts for KSAV have been for 30 on 11/11 in a windy freeze. If that were to verify, it would be the earliest 30 or colder since way back in 1976! However, latest and recent model consensus is suggesting that 30 is on the low end (Icon). ICON actually warmed some from 27s on Sat runs. Latest ICON/GFS/CMC/Euro/UKMET (through 6Z/0Z 11/9 runs) have 30/32/33/33/34. If this were a radiational cooling night, I’d likely favor the low end per slight warm bias of consensus. But with it being windy, I’m currently thinking near the model avg of 32. However, if the model consensus were to cool, I’d adjust colder. Even just getting to 32 would mean the earliest freeze since 2010! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Sunday at 02:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:40 PM There’s a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Sunday at 04:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:00 PM RAH talks about the chance of a brief period of snow tomorrow night in latest discussion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Sunday at 07:53 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:53 PM Drain those outdoor hoses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted Sunday at 08:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:32 PM 5 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: There’s a chance 4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: RAH talks about the chance of a brief period of snow tomorrow night in latest discussion 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted yesterday at 02:56 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:56 AM 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted yesterday at 02:37 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:37 PM Just for fun 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted yesterday at 02:50 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:50 PM 12 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Just for fun Ten days isn’t so far away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted yesterday at 02:57 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:57 PM 19 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Just for fun Lock it in! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago Felt like an Edmund Fitzgerald day driving home. Grey with a howling NE wind. Obviously nothing like the 978mb bomb that sank the Fitz with 86 mph winds and 30 foot seas. Played Gordon Lighfoot in honor of the 29 souls lost 50 years ago today. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago On 11/7/2025 at 9:54 AM, GaWx said: Here are the progs for Nov 11th lows from the latest ICON/CMC/Euro/GFS/UKMET1. GA-SAV: 29/31/34/34/35-NE ATL (Chamblee): 25/23/29/34/322. SC-GSP: 23/21/29/27/29-CAE: 28/32/33/32/343. NC-CLT: 25/30/31/29/32-RDU: 28/34/32/32/35—————————Average for each model for the 6 cities:ICON: 26.3CMC: 28.5Euro: 31.3GFS: 31.3UKMET: 32.6Any guesses for:1. Which model for the 6 cities averaged out will do best?2. Which model for the 6 cities averaged out will do worst?———————My guesses: 1. Best: Euro/GFS (tie) 2. Worst: ICON Edit: I’m guessing that the average low for these 6 cities will be 30.5F. Followup to the above based on lowest hourlies through 7AM (I’ll update this if any official lows turn out to be lower):These appear to be the lows along with the model that was closest out of the 11/7 6Z GFS/ICON/Euro runs and 11/7 0Z UKMET/CMC runs:SAV: 28/ICONNE ATL: 28/EuroGSP: 23/ICONCAE: 29/ICONCLT: 29/CMCRDU: 30/ICON, Euro, GFS tied-Avg of these: 27.8, which is significantly colder than my guess of 30.5 and lead me to be dead wrong with my prediction of ICON to be the furthest away!-So, although the CMC was closest to only 1 of the 6, it’s average of 28.5 followed by ICON’s 26.3 were closest to the 27.8 actual-UKMET’s 32.6 was easily the furthest-So, ICON, alone, was closest to 3 of the 6So, ICON and CMC did the best overall due to being the coldest while UKMET was the worst due to being the warmest 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 58 minutes ago, GaWx said: Followup to the above based on lowest hourlies through 7AM (I’ll update this if any official lows turn out to be lower):These appear to be the lows along with the model that was closest out of the 11/7 6Z GFS/ICON/Euro runs and 11/7 0Z UKMET/CMC runs:SAV: 28/ICONNE ATL: 28/EuroGSP: 23/ICONCAE: 29/ICONCLT: 29/CMCRDU: 30/ICON, Euro, GFS tied-Avg of these: 27.8, which is significantly colder than my guess of 30.5 and lead me to be dead wrong with my prediction of ICON to be the furthest away!-So, although the CMC was closest to only 1 of the 6, it’s average of 28.5 followed by ICON’s 26.3 were closest to the 27.8 actual-UKMET’s 32.6 was easily the furthest-So, ICON, alone, was closest to 3 of the 6So, ICON and CMC did the best overall due to being the coldest while UKMET was the worst due to being the warmest Wow, GSP was really frigid! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago both Euro and GFS foresee almost coast to coast chill for early December 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago G4 conditions possible tomorrow . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 33 minutes ago, BooneWX said: G4 conditions possible tomorrow . It gets confusing as they use UTC but basically overnight tonight is a solid chance and then we will see if a daytime hit by the next one can hold on until dark tomorrow night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 43 minutes ago, BooneWX said: G4 conditions possible tomorrow . Two X class flares over the last two days but a larger X flare just went off today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago One thing to note is even if the G number is high you need a negative Bz on top of that for a show. That won't be known until it hits. Negative is south which is what you need. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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