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Mid to long range discussion- 2025


wncsnow
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4 hours ago, franklin NCwx said:

Is that the "real" cold rain?

And also the real “Rain Cold” as he is also known. :D

 Based on ensemble 2 week progs, the -NAO for Nov overall is quite possibly (or even probably) going to end up the strongest in Nov since 2010.

 2000 is a Nov strong -NAO, late Nov weak SPV, and active sunspots analog. If the MJO were to keep going and get into 7/8/1/2/3 in Dec, that would also be like 2000.

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 The current and recent KCHS NWS forecasts for KSAV have been for 30 on 11/11 in a windy freeze. If that were to verify, it would be the earliest 30 or colder since way back in 1976! However, latest and recent model consensus is suggesting that 30 is on the low end (Icon). ICON actually warmed some from 27s on Sat runs.

 Latest ICON/GFS/CMC/Euro/UKMET (through 6Z/0Z 11/9 runs) have 30/32/33/33/34. If this were a radiational cooling night, I’d likely favor the low end per slight warm bias of consensus. But with it being windy, I’m currently thinking near the model avg of 32. However, if the model consensus were to cool, I’d adjust colder. Even just getting to 32 would mean the earliest freeze since 2010!

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