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Mid to long range discussion- 2025


wncsnow
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36 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The eastern half of NC could get some heavy, beneficial rainfall over the next couple days depending on how strong the coastal low gets.

yeah I was hoping last night was going to be clear before this for telescope shots but it was not to be.

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5 hours ago, eyewall said:

Bust on the rainfall here that is for sure.

One of the worst forecast busts you’ll see. Parts of CNC got put under a FFW for up to 5-8” of rain in isolated spots and they won’t even see a drop! Here we went from 1”+ and 80% chance of rain all day to mostly cloudy 

I didn’t publicly call this but I said to my wife last night when we were talking about plans today if it was going to rain but I said it seemed the low was much further east than models were initializing so I wondered if we would get less rain all day. Did not think it would be this dry across the entire area though!

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We are in serious need of rain if we do not want to slide into a drought. We are sitting, 17 days into September, at 0.16” if rain for the month and going back to August 15 we have only received around 1/2” total. When I say it’s gotten dry that is an understatement! No rain in forecast either. We look likely to finish out September with under 1/2” total rainfall (possibly under 1/4”) which, including the second half of August, would leave us under 1” for the last month and a half. Not good

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3 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

With the beginning of fall, average highs now dip into the 70s. Actual temperatures will soon comply.

 

IMG-5763.jpg

For you northerners, but us southerners in GA, still seeing low to mid 80's after the next few days of low 90's:D

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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Euro really came to life with rainfall. But as we've seen seems like you get passed 3 days and it's a crapshoot. qpf_acc-imp.us_ma.jpg

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Unfortunately still very dry for most of GA. Really hoping the cold front moving through Thurs/Fri gives us some beneficial rain.

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4 hours ago, wncsnow said:

The Uk agrees with the Euro. The cutoff low brings all the rain to WNC and tries to funnel in those system(s) of the SE coast but they get too close and a weird fujiwara effect happens. Going to be some wild weather maps next week. 

Cut off lows and tropical systems…..

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 I recommend folks who are curious follow the Invest 94L thread. If 94L isn’t pulled toward Humberto (via Fujiwhara), portions of the SE US may be in danger of a hit from 94L per the 12Z EPS, 18Z Icon, and others. In addition, the MJO is forecasted to be in phase 2 9/27-10/3. That has been the single most dangerous phase for the Conus overall since 1975 during Jul-Sept overall.

 

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