Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Brian D]

Give me a storm with 50-70 mph winds, and a foot of snow this March, and you can bet I'll have a "tingle up my leg". LOL!! Glad the bitter is gone. Had enough of that. Now just let it snow good before Spring gets it's butt in gear. 

[A-L-E-K]

euro manages to be zzzz imby despite 984 into michigan, some fun deep solutions showing up tho

extended still looks warm with a fantasy range tor threat (or two)

the mid march hype real?

[hawkeye_wx]

The Euro would be pretty interesting for eastern Iowa.  Heavy wind-driven rain followed by a few inches of wind-driven slop.

[A-L-E-K]

Where was this gfs pattern 2 months ago

[cyclone77]

5 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The Euro would be pretty interesting for eastern Iowa.  Heavy wind-driven rain followed by a few inches of wind-driven slop.

Likely overdoing everything per usual.  Cut the excitement by about 30-50% and there's the final solution if seasonal trends persist.

Early guess for here is a nice soaker followed by a few wet flakes.

[Maxim]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

Where was this gfs pattern 2 months ago

Has no ensemble support tho

[Maxim]

Never seen these probabilities on a 3-4 week CPC outlook

[Chicago Storm]

35 minutes ago, Maxim said:

Has no ensemble support tho

counterpoint: it actually does have some.

[Chicago Storm]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Likely overdoing everything per usual.  Cut the excitement by about 30-50% and there's the final solution if seasonal trends persist.

Early guess for here is a nice soaker followed by a few wet flakes.

pulling for you not to pick-up some half-assed event(s) that kills the futility chase.

at least there's a 3.1" buffer between current and #1.

[DocATL]

This morning’s GFS run feels right doesn’t it?

[michsnowfreak]

18 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Likely overdoing everything per usual.  Cut the excitement by about 30-50% and there's the final solution if seasonal trends persist.

Early guess for here is a nice soaker followed by a few wet flakes.

I always forget, which of the DVN sites are you closest to? Or are you kind of in no man's land for first order stations?

[DocATL]

Euro was a death knell for anything wintery.

[Chicago Storm]

Euro was a death knell for anything wintery.

[sbnwx85]

26 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Looks windy and exciting.

 

[cyclone77]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I always forget, which of the DVN sites are you closest to? Or are you kind of in no man's land for first order stations?

Almost identical actually( MLI & DVN), both are 22 miles away as the crow flies.  Temp wise this area is more similar to MLI as both here and at MLI are in the Rock River valley.  

[DocATL]

I guess we’ll see what accumulations shake out. Maybe some mood flakes for us. A good thump for parts of Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota.


.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Almost identical actually( MLI & DVN), both are 22 miles away as the crow flies.  Temp wise this area is more similar to MLI as both here and at MLI are in the Rock River valley.  

Thanks for clarifying! I'm about 7 miles due east of DTW. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Anyone live closer to a first order station then me?

[Chicago Storm]

hunch says you will win that one.

[bowtie`]

1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Anyone live closer to a first order station then me?

convenient

 

[MidwestChaser]

NAM a good run for MN and western IA.

[sbnwx85]

On 2/28/2025 at 7:35 PM, Maxim said:

Never seen these probabilities on a 3-4 week CPC outlook

Classic 60’s and 70’s for two weeks before baseball season then, BAM, 30’s and rain/snow mix for Opening Weekend.

[A-L-E-K]

Looks active

[Baum]

when are the 70's coming

[King James]

WGN says I’m at 72 next Tuesday

[Maxim]

6 minutes ago, King James said:

WGN says I’m at 72 next Tuesday

You'd think people on a weather forum would know how unreasonable it is to expect 70s already at this latitude even in our warming climate. But yeah, they'll be here soon enough.

[King James]

You'd think people on a weather forum would know how unreasonable it is to expect 70s already at this latitude even in our warming climate. But yeah, they'll be here soon enough.

Not unreasonable at all, 70s in March happening every year it feels like. Shoot, it was 68 on my car dash just 3 weeks ago before the cold snap hit

[Maxim]

Just now, King James said:

Not unreasonable at all, 70s in March happening every year it feels like. Shoot, it was 68 on my car dash just 3 weeks ago before the cold snap hit

70s are still like 30+ above average and are in record territory for this time of year. So yeah, I'd say it's pretty unreasonable to expect consistent 70s in the first half of March anyway.

[King James]

70s are still like 30+ above average and are in record territory for this time of year. So yeah, I'd say it's pretty unreasonable to expect consistent 70s in the first half of March anyway.

Consistent? Easy where you move them goal posts dude! Need to find them for later

Enjoy the 70s next week!

[Maxim]

Just now, King James said:

Consistent? Easy where you move them goal posts dude! Need to find them for later

Enjoy the 70s next week!

No need for your hostile bullshit. 70s whether consistent or not should absolutely NOT be a given during the first couple weeks of March, regardless of what the models show or what actually happens in reality. Work on controlling your emotions in the future btw, it'll do you some good.