2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

Lazza @GaWx from storm2k posted this, quite useful:

 

LarryWx

S2K Supporter

Posts: 6504

Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm

Location: GA

Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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#808 by LarryWx » Thu Aug 28, 2025 3:37 pm 

Tue’s (8/26/25) Euro Weeklies ACE Sep progs vs very active 20 yr climo:
1-7: 4.5 (0.3)
8-14: 11.3 (0.7)
15-21: 20.4 (1.3)
22-28: 22.4 (1.6)

Today’s (8/28/25) EW ACE progs are less active weeks 2-4 vs the Tue run but still show the same pattern of a relatively quiet first half of Sept and a much more active 2nd half somewhat similar to Sept of 2024:
1-7: 4.5 (0.3)
8-14: 8 (0.5)
15-21: 17 (1.1)
22-28: 20 (1.4)

[GaWx]

My (lazza) Euro Weeklies update

Tue’s (8/26/25) Euro Weeklies ACE Sep progs vs very active 20 yr climo:
1-7: 4.5 (0.3)
8-14: 11.3 (0.7)
15-21: 20.4 (1.3)
22-28: 22.4 (1.6)

Today’s (8/28/25) EW ACE progs are less active weeks 2-4 vs the Tue run but still show the same pattern of a relatively quiet first half of Sept and a much more active 2nd half somewhat similar to Sept of 2024:
1-7: 4.5 (0.3)
8-14: 8 (0.5)
15-21: 17 (1.1)
22-28: 20 (1.4)

[BarryStantonGBP]

Just now, GaWx said:

My (lazzo) Euro Weeklies update

Tue’s (8/26/25) Euro Weeklies ACE Sep progs vs very active 20 yr climo:
1-7: 4.5 (0.3)
8-14: 11.3 (0.7)
15-21: 20.4 (1.3)
22-28: 22.4 (1.6)

Today’s (8/28/25) EW ACE progs are less active weeks 2-4 vs the Tue run but still show the same pattern of a relatively quiet first half of Sept and a much more active 2nd half somewhat similar to Sept of 2024:
1-7: 4.5 (0.3)
8-14: 8 (0.5)
15-21: 17 (1.1)
22-28: 20 (1.4)

Hi Lazza! 

Guess this means the wave off Africa probably might fizzle out and not develop no?

 

 

 

 

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

[BarryStantonGBP]

deepminds shows a WCAR storm forming around mid-month, heading for GOA

[shaggy]

16 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

deepminds shows a WCAR storm forming around mid-month, heading for GOA

Wouldn't be surprised to see a burst of storms in the Carribbean and GOM this year as those waters have remained undisturbed and ready to blow up if something can form there.

[NorthHillsWx]

57 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Wouldn't be surprised to see a burst of storms in the Carribbean and GOM this year as those waters have remained undisturbed and ready to blow up if something can form there.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see a short notice storm form in gulf with these fronts making it to the northern gulf and rotting 

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It wouldn’t surprise me to see a short notice storm form in gulf with these fronts making it to the northern gulf and rotting 

What intensifies? 
did Milton form that way?

2 hours ago, shaggy said:

Wouldn't be surprised to see a burst of storms in the Carribbean and GOM this year as those waters have remained undisturbed and ready to blow up if something can form there.

I have a bad feeling about otrebmuh

[GaWx]

On 8/28/2025 at 4:41 PM, GaWx said:

My (lazza) Euro Weeklies update

Tue’s (8/26/25) Euro Weeklies ACE Sep progs vs very active 20 yr climo:
1-7: 4.5 (0.3)
8-14: 11.3 (0.7)
15-21: 20.4 (1.3)
22-28: 22.4 (1.6)

Today’s (8/28/25) EW ACE progs are less active weeks 2-4 vs the Tue run but still show the same pattern of a relatively quiet first half of Sept and a much more active 2nd half somewhat similar to Sept of 2024:
1-7: 4.5 (0.3)
8-14: 8 (0.5)
15-21: 17 (1.1)
22-28: 20 (1.4)

Update on EW from Lazza at S2k:

Update on EW vs 2 days ago: slightly quieter 2nd 1/2 but still much more active 2nd half of Sep vs 1st half:

1-7: 4.5 (0.3)
8-14: 8 (0.5)
15-21: 14 (0.9)
22-28: 18.5 (1.3)

[Scott747]

4 hours ago, shaggy said:

Wouldn't be surprised to see a burst of storms in the Carribbean and GOM this year as those waters have remained undisturbed and ready to blow up if something can form there.

This could be the most overplayed and tiring argument year after year when it comes to ssts/ohc and the potential.

When it comes to the 'waters' the  GoM and NW Caribbean are generally always supportive of not only tropical formation but intense storms throughout the season.

I

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, Scott747 said:

This could be the most overplayed and tiring argument year after year when it comes to ssts/ohc and the potential.

When it comes to the 'waters' the  GoM and NW Caribbean are generally always supportive of not only tropical formation but intense storms throughout the season.

I

And that’s not surprisingly the area of formation where the EWs have been suggesting would probably be the greatest threat to the US 9/15+ though SC north has a notable threat from the open Atlantic, too:

9/15-21: 

 

9/22-28:

 

[Scott747]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

And that’s not surprisingly the area of formation where the EWs have been suggesting would probably be the greatest threat to the US 9/15+ though NC north has some threat from the open Atlantic, too:

My point is the idea that the Gulf or Caribbean is some sort of escalated threat because they haven't been 'touched' or active so far.

It's almost always supportive (when it comes to sst's/ohc) throughout the season regardless of activity.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Scott747 said:

My point is the idea that the Gulf or Caribbean is some sort of escalated threat because they haven't been 'touched' or active so far.

It's almost always supportive (when it comes to sst's/ohc) throughout the season regardless of activity.

I think that’s true in general, but I think there are times where the thermal environment is more supportive of high end activity, especially when combined with ENSO driven reduction in shear. Caribbean SSTs are warmer than normal but not outrageous while Gulf temps are near record. The OHC anomalies are focused in the western Gulf with the exception of the loop current.

[BarryStantonGBP]

Quote 

 

 

Category5Kaiju Category 5

Re: 2025 ATL hurricane season is here

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#94 Sat Aug 30, 2025 7:23 pm 

For what it's worth, the 18z GFS actually shows three active systems by September 15: one in the Gulf, one east of the Bahamas (that is the 0/30 system), and one in the far eastern MDR.

 

tweet 

[GaWx]

47 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Quote 

 

 

 

 

Category5Kaiju Category 5

Re: 2025 ATL hurricane season is here

•  

#94 Sat Aug 30, 2025 7:23 pm 

For what it's worth, the 18z GFS actually shows three active systems by September 15: one in the Gulf, one east of the Bahamas (that is the 0/30 system), and one in the far eastern MDR.

 

tweet 

 Cat5 is the bull’s bull in his posts but he’s right about the 18Z GFS. He’s very consistent to his credit. If his handle were instead TDKaiju, then he’d probably be a bear’s bear. Lazzo, like me, is more neutral and prefers to post without the content being heavily influenced by a bias, bullish or bearish. It’s not easy.

[BarryStantonGBP]

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Cat5 is the bull’s bull in his posts but he’s right about the 18Z GFS. He’s very consistent to his credit. If his handle were instead TDKaiju, then he’d probably be a bear’s bear. Lazzo, like me, is more neutral and prefers to post without the content being heavily influenced by a bias, bullish or bearish. It’s not easy.

I actually prefer his posts to nonces like wx57 who think they live in ibiza 

[bigtenfan]

39 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Cat5 is the bull’s bull in his posts but he’s right about the 18Z GFS. He’s very consistent to his credit. If his handle were instead TDKaiju, then he’d probably be a bear’s bear. Lazzo, like me, is more neutral and prefers to post without the content being heavily influenced by a bias, bullish or bearish. It’s not easy.

That is what the HH GFS shows but what I think is a bigger statement is that in the midst of peak season a very bullish poster can only find threats in a 384 hour map in the HH GFS

[Maggie Valley Steve]

Keep an eye on the Carla Cradle and along any stalled boundaries along the Gulf. I believe East Coast threats are limited for the time being and possibly for the rest of the Season.

[GaWx]

 Per Joe Bastardi yesterday in the free video, this is and will likely end up being the quietest Labor Day weekend for the globe as a whole tropically (not Atlantic specifically as 2024, for one, was equally quiet) of most of our lifetimes. There was just an Invest in the EPAC and the remnants of a TD in SE Asia. That was it, which is fascinating!

[psv88]

What a dud of a season

[WxWatcher007]

I expected a dead period first half of the peak. There are no real surprises in the basin right now. It’s hostile now, won’t be in a few weeks (though the lemon does have solid odds of development with a locally favorable window). 

[BarryStantonGBP]

28 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I expected a dead period first half of the peak. There are no real surprises in the basin right now. It’s hostile now, won’t be in a few weeks (though the lemon does have solid odds of development with a locally favorable window). 

Is it me or do I feel that a wave behind the lemon could be named first 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

What a dud of a season

Very surprising with these troughs coming into the east. You would expect that in September.

[LoboLeader1]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

What a dud of a season

It ain't over till it's over.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Is it me or do I feel that a wave behind the lemon could be named first 

I think this first wave is most likely to be the beneficiary of a CCKW and may be early enough to avoid a developing TUTT. Anything caught near that will get ripped apart. The basin is still hostile and won’t change until the basin wide forcing changes with the cycling MJO.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Very surprising with these troughs coming into the east. You would expect that in September.

It’s almost September so I don’t think it’s a huge departure from climo. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think this first wave is most likely to be the beneficiary of a CCKW and may be early enough to avoid a developing TUTT. Anything caught near that will get ripped apart. The basin is still hostile and won’t change until the basin wide forcing changes with the cycling MJO.

It’s almost September so I don’t think it’s a huge departure from climo. 

I thought the tutt is there already 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Per Joe Bastardi yesterday in the free video, this is and will likely end up being the quietest Labor Day weekend for the globe as a whole tropically (not Atlantic specifically as 2024, for one, was equally quiet) of most of our lifetimes. There was just an Invest in the EPAC and the remnants of a TD in SE Asia. That was it, which is fascinating!

Followup:

 As a result of recently formed TS Kiko in the EPAC, 2025 is no longer the quietest Labor Day weekend tropically globally of Joe Bastardi’s lifetime. Why? Going back to 1950:

-1980: no TC in EPAC, WPAC, or N Indian. The only TC was TD7 forming 8PM Sun in the NATL and lasting through Mon. Thus, 2025 now having a TS already beats 1980 globally.

-1991 is debatable: 
-no TC in EPAC or N Indian
-WPAC had a dissipating Harry, probably down to only a TD, on Sat, and a new TD on Mon
-NATL: TD 5 dissipated on Sat
-So, unlike 2025, 1991 had no TS+ but there were 3 TDs during the weekend.

[BarryStantonGBP]

24 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Followup:

 As a result of recently formed TS Kiko in the EPAC, 2025 is no longer the quietest Labor Day weekend tropically globally of Joe Bastardi’s lifetime. Why? Going back to 1950:

-1980: no TC in EPAC, WPAC, or N Indian. The only TC was TD7 forming 8PM Sun in the NATL and lasting through Mon. Thus, 2025 now having a TS already beats 1980 globally.

-1991 is debatable: 
-no TC in EPAC or N Indian
-WPAC had a dissipating Harry, probably down to only a TD, on Sat, and a new TD on Mon
-NATL: TD 5 dissipated on Sat
-So, unlike 2025, 1991 had no TS+ but there were 3 TDs during the weekend.

kiko chan 

also we may get another storm not just gabsy wabsy 

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

I thought the tutt is there already 

Not yet. It’ll be a few days before it extends across much of the MDR.