2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

Lazza @GaWx from storm2k posted this, quite useful:

 

LarryWx

S2K Supporter

Posts: 6504

Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm

Location: GA

Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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#808 by LarryWx » Thu Aug 28, 2025 3:37 pm 

Tue’s (8/26/25) Euro Weeklies ACE Sep progs vs very active 20 yr climo:
1-7: 4.5 (0.3)
8-14: 11.3 (0.7)
15-21: 20.4 (1.3)
22-28: 22.4 (1.6)

Today’s (8/28/25) EW ACE progs are less active weeks 2-4 vs the Tue run but still show the same pattern of a relatively quiet first half of Sept and a much more active 2nd half somewhat similar to Sept of 2024:
1-7: 4.5 (0.3)
8-14: 8 (0.5)
15-21: 17 (1.1)
22-28: 20 (1.4)

[GaWx]

My (lazza) Euro Weeklies update

Tue’s (8/26/25) Euro Weeklies ACE Sep progs vs very active 20 yr climo:
1-7: 4.5 (0.3)
8-14: 11.3 (0.7)
15-21: 20.4 (1.3)
22-28: 22.4 (1.6)

Today’s (8/28/25) EW ACE progs are less active weeks 2-4 vs the Tue run but still show the same pattern of a relatively quiet first half of Sept and a much more active 2nd half somewhat similar to Sept of 2024:
1-7: 4.5 (0.3)
8-14: 8 (0.5)
15-21: 17 (1.1)
22-28: 20 (1.4)

[BarryStantonGBP]

Just now, GaWx said:

My (lazzo) Euro Weeklies update

Tue’s (8/26/25) Euro Weeklies ACE Sep progs vs very active 20 yr climo:
1-7: 4.5 (0.3)
8-14: 11.3 (0.7)
15-21: 20.4 (1.3)
22-28: 22.4 (1.6)

Today’s (8/28/25) EW ACE progs are less active weeks 2-4 vs the Tue run but still show the same pattern of a relatively quiet first half of Sept and a much more active 2nd half somewhat similar to Sept of 2024:
1-7: 4.5 (0.3)
8-14: 8 (0.5)
15-21: 17 (1.1)
22-28: 20 (1.4)

Hi Lazza! 

Guess this means the wave off Africa probably might fizzle out and not develop no?

 

 

 

 

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

[BarryStantonGBP]

deepminds shows a WCAR storm forming around mid-month, heading for GOA

[shaggy]

16 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

deepminds shows a WCAR storm forming around mid-month, heading for GOA

Wouldn't be surprised to see a burst of storms in the Carribbean and GOM this year as those waters have remained undisturbed and ready to blow up if something can form there.

[NorthHillsWx]

57 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Wouldn't be surprised to see a burst of storms in the Carribbean and GOM this year as those waters have remained undisturbed and ready to blow up if something can form there.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see a short notice storm form in gulf with these fronts making it to the northern gulf and rotting 

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It wouldn’t surprise me to see a short notice storm form in gulf with these fronts making it to the northern gulf and rotting 

What intensifies? 
did Milton form that way?

2 hours ago, shaggy said:

Wouldn't be surprised to see a burst of storms in the Carribbean and GOM this year as those waters have remained undisturbed and ready to blow up if something can form there.

I have a bad feeling about otrebmuh

[GaWx]

On 8/28/2025 at 4:41 PM, GaWx said:

My (lazza) Euro Weeklies update

Tue’s (8/26/25) Euro Weeklies ACE Sep progs vs very active 20 yr climo:
1-7: 4.5 (0.3)
8-14: 11.3 (0.7)
15-21: 20.4 (1.3)
22-28: 22.4 (1.6)

Today’s (8/28/25) EW ACE progs are less active weeks 2-4 vs the Tue run but still show the same pattern of a relatively quiet first half of Sept and a much more active 2nd half somewhat similar to Sept of 2024:
1-7: 4.5 (0.3)
8-14: 8 (0.5)
15-21: 17 (1.1)
22-28: 20 (1.4)

Update on EW from Lazza at S2k:

Update on EW vs 2 days ago: slightly quieter 2nd 1/2 but still much more active 2nd half of Sep vs 1st half:

1-7: 4.5 (0.3)
8-14: 8 (0.5)
15-21: 14 (0.9)
22-28: 18.5 (1.3)

[Scott747]

4 hours ago, shaggy said:

Wouldn't be surprised to see a burst of storms in the Carribbean and GOM this year as those waters have remained undisturbed and ready to blow up if something can form there.

This could be the most overplayed and tiring argument year after year when it comes to ssts/ohc and the potential.

When it comes to the 'waters' the  GoM and NW Caribbean are generally always supportive of not only tropical formation but intense storms throughout the season.

I

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, Scott747 said:

This could be the most overplayed and tiring argument year after year when it comes to ssts/ohc and the potential.

When it comes to the 'waters' the  GoM and NW Caribbean are generally always supportive of not only tropical formation but intense storms throughout the season.

I

And that’s not surprisingly the area of formation where the EWs have been suggesting would probably be the greatest threat to the US 9/15+ though SC north has a notable threat from the open Atlantic, too:

9/15-21: 

 

9/22-28:

 

[Scott747]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

And that’s not surprisingly the area of formation where the EWs have been suggesting would probably be the greatest threat to the US 9/15+ though NC north has some threat from the open Atlantic, too:

My point is the idea that the Gulf or Caribbean is some sort of escalated threat because they haven't been 'touched' or active so far.

It's almost always supportive (when it comes to sst's/ohc) throughout the season regardless of activity.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Scott747 said:

My point is the idea that the Gulf or Caribbean is some sort of escalated threat because they haven't been 'touched' or active so far.

It's almost always supportive (when it comes to sst's/ohc) throughout the season regardless of activity.

I think that’s true in general, but I think there are times where the thermal environment is more supportive of high end activity, especially when combined with ENSO driven reduction in shear. Caribbean SSTs are warmer than normal but not outrageous while Gulf temps are near record. The OHC anomalies are focused in the western Gulf with the exception of the loop current.

[BarryStantonGBP]

Quote 

 

 

Category5Kaiju Category 5

Re: 2025 ATL hurricane season is here

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#94 Sat Aug 30, 2025 7:23 pm 

For what it's worth, the 18z GFS actually shows three active systems by September 15: one in the Gulf, one east of the Bahamas (that is the 0/30 system), and one in the far eastern MDR.

 

tweet 

[GaWx]

47 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Quote 

 

 

 

 

Category5Kaiju Category 5

Re: 2025 ATL hurricane season is here

•  

#94 Sat Aug 30, 2025 7:23 pm 

For what it's worth, the 18z GFS actually shows three active systems by September 15: one in the Gulf, one east of the Bahamas (that is the 0/30 system), and one in the far eastern MDR.

 

tweet 

 Cat5 is the bull’s bull in his posts but he’s right about the 18Z GFS. He’s very consistent to his credit. If his handle were instead TDKaiju, then he’d probably be a bear’s bear. Lazzo, like me, is more neutral and prefers to post without the content being heavily influenced by a bias, bullish or bearish. It’s not easy.

[BarryStantonGBP]

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Cat5 is the bull’s bull in his posts but he’s right about the 18Z GFS. He’s very consistent to his credit. If his handle were instead TDKaiju, then he’d probably be a bear’s bear. Lazzo, like me, is more neutral and prefers to post without the content being heavily influenced by a bias, bullish or bearish. It’s not easy.

I actually prefer his posts to nonces like wx57 who think they live in ibiza 

[bigtenfan]

39 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Cat5 is the bull’s bull in his posts but he’s right about the 18Z GFS. He’s very consistent to his credit. If his handle were instead TDKaiju, then he’d probably be a bear’s bear. Lazzo, like me, is more neutral and prefers to post without the content being heavily influenced by a bias, bullish or bearish. It’s not easy.

That is what the HH GFS shows but what I think is a bigger statement is that in the midst of peak season a very bullish poster can only find threats in a 384 hour map in the HH GFS

[Maggie Valley Steve]

Keep an eye on the Carla Cradle and along any stalled boundaries along the Gulf. I believe East Coast threats are limited for the time being and possibly for the rest of the Season.