cardinalland Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 I had some free time today and decided to correlate Atlantic ACE with temperatures around the world for the month of May (which, over oceans, roughly correspond with sea surface temperatures.) One can see a strong positive influence from sea surface temperatures across the Tropical Atlantic, as well as the East Atlantic, Labrador Sea (hmm) and tropical West Pacific/Maritime Continent. Now there's definitely a lot of noise in here, but I found it helpful for my analysis. I also produced temperature correlation coefficients for number of TS/H/MH (didn't differ too much from this) and precipitation correlation coefficients (pretty much just noise, no trend.) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 ^Clear Atlantic tripole there. I found that this is the Apr-May SLP anomaly of our most active seasons since 1995 minus least active seasons since 1995 So far we have somewhat of an opposite pattern 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted May 23 Author Share Posted May 23 5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: ^Clear Atlantic tripole there. I found that this is the Apr-May SLP anomaly of our most active seasons since 1995 minus least active seasons since 1995 So far we have somewhat of an opposite pattern LMAO no it’s gonna be active 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 Maybe active, but that data says not hyperactive. In the far east Atlantic there is somewhat of a -NAO tripole.. Maybe enhancing Cape Verde area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted May 23 Author Share Posted May 23 Seasonal Forecast or Verification Type Issue Date Description Atlantic Hurricanes 2025 23rd MAy 2025 Pre-Season Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2025 UCL (TSR)'s reforecast is out: 16-8-4/146 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 Thread explaining why I think chances for tropical development in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico ramp up significantly around Jun 4-10. https://x.com/yconsor/status/1926690131181731976 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 7 hours ago, jconsor said: Thread explaining why I think chances for tropical development in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico ramp up significantly around Jun 4-10. https://x.com/yconsor/status/1926690131181731976 Totally agree. Hadn’t watched the Atlantic wave but a well timed CCKW and MJO should open our window in the first week or two of June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 8 hours ago, jconsor said: Thread explaining why I think chances for tropical development in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico ramp up significantly around Jun 4-10. https://x.com/yconsor/status/1926690131181731976 25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Totally agree. Hadn’t watched the Atlantic wave but a well timed CCKW and MJO should open our window in the first week or two of June. Today’s Euro Weeklies have re-upped the chances of TCG to close to where they were 4-6 runs ago for 6/9-15 in the W part of the basin, a pretty decent/moderate/above climo chances signal. To his credit if this were to occur, JB has been predicting this since late April although he does often predict early TCG: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC US Geological Survice Posted Tuesday at 02:29 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:29 AM I believe the 18Z GFS has fired a first shot over the bow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC US Geological Survice Posted Tuesday at 02:34 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:34 AM May need to zoom in but here's the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted Tuesday at 10:55 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:55 AM In my view, it's mportant not to lump all La Ninas together. Modoki (central Pacific-based) La Ninas are notably different from traditional (East Pacific-based) Ninas. This has big implications for the level of Atlantic TC activity and where in the basin it tends to be focused. This year is more likely to end up a Modoki La Nina, with cooler water relative to normal focused in the central Pacific:https://x.com/yconsor/status/1927306239920283821 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC US Geological Survice Posted Tuesday at 11:17 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:17 AM 00Z (eastern Gulf) and 06Z (western Gulf) also have development between the Yucatan and Cuba, June 6-10. Euro has a weaker storm in the western Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Tuesday at 04:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:07 PM There’s a modest ensemble consensus for a window opening. 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Ho Posted Tuesday at 09:51 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:51 PM almost time to ring the bell! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 03:03 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:03 AM As of May 28th, OHC for the area of the tropical Atlantic east of the Caribbean (20W-60W) is down to near the 2013-24 average. That’s still quite warm, but it’s not nearly as warm as 2024 and is even a bit cooler than 2023. I’ll be interested to see where it is in a couple of weeks: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AStorms13 Posted Friday at 02:07 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:07 PM Let the season of overreactions BEGIN! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted Friday at 03:26 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:26 PM This isn’t likely to happen. There is a huge blob of SAL east of the lesser Antilles that will likely be migrating into the gulf ahead of this time period. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Friday at 10:10 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:10 PM 8 hours ago, AStorms13 said: Let the season of overreactions BEGIN! 12z still shows that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted Friday at 11:28 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:28 PM 9 hours ago, AStorms13 said: Let the season of overreactions BEGIN! lock it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 11:48 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 11:48 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted yesterday at 06:00 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:00 AM GFS running hot but the signal for a window is still there. Most likely after the 8th or so on both the EPS/GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago We've got like 4 straight days of GFS runs showing a storm forming next weekend in the Caribbean with no other model support. This will be a huge win or a huge fail for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago FL damage est. from hurricanes (In 2025 $ billions) 1960: Donna 4 1964: Cleo 1; Dora 3 1965: Betsy 1 1975: Eloise 2 1992: Andrew 58 1995: Erin 1; Opal 6 1998: Georges 1 1999: Irene 2 2004: Charley 26; Frances 15; Ivan 24; Jeanne 13 2005: Dennis 2; Katrina 1; Wilma 31 2016: Hermine 1; Matthew 4 2017: Irma 65 2018: Michael 23 2020: Sally <9 2022: Ian 110; Nicole 1 2023: Idalia 3 2024: Helene 36, Milton 14 ———————— -1992 had 58 damage from Andrew but they didn’t have another comparable year til 2004 -2004-5, combined: 112; but Citizens Property Insurance had just been created; also, FL didn’t have another comparable period til 2017-8; so things got much better -2017-8, combined: 88; but that was followed by a not nearly as bad 2019-21 overall thus helping things though Sally of 2020 was quite bad for Pensacola -2022-4, combined: 164 (worst 3 year period ever leading to insurance crisis) but there was some stabilization and even slight premium drops in 2025 due to 11 new companies entering market as well as help from Citizens -2025+ will, needless to say, be extremely crucial for FL for the stability of the FL housing market/insurance. The MHs, especially, need to avoid FL for at least the next couple of years to help things turnaround. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago On 5/31/2025 at 2:48 AM, BarryStantonGBP said: 7 hurricanes and 5 majors in the Atlantic (and 6 and 5 in the East Pacific) is a rather comical outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 hours ago, jconsor said: 7 hurricanes and 5 majors in the Atlantic (and 6 and 5 in the East Pacific) is a rather comical outlook Throw your darts. There isn’t enough initialization data to make such predictions. And where we have good data coverage, it’s accuracy (inherent error) out to month long timescales that bites. We’d all be much better off killing this aspect of the science. Do it for fun; but let’s stop there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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