cardinalland Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 I had some free time today and decided to correlate Atlantic ACE with temperatures around the world for the month of May (which, over oceans, roughly correspond with sea surface temperatures.) One can see a strong positive influence from sea surface temperatures across the Tropical Atlantic, as well as the East Atlantic, Labrador Sea (hmm) and tropical West Pacific/Maritime Continent. Now there's definitely a lot of noise in here, but I found it helpful for my analysis. I also produced temperature correlation coefficients for number of TS/H/MH (didn't differ too much from this) and precipitation correlation coefficients (pretty much just noise, no trend.) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 ^Clear Atlantic tripole there. I found that this is the Apr-May SLP anomaly of our most active seasons since 1995 minus least active seasons since 1995 So far we have somewhat of an opposite pattern 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted May 23 Author Share Posted May 23 5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: ^Clear Atlantic tripole there. I found that this is the Apr-May SLP anomaly of our most active seasons since 1995 minus least active seasons since 1995 So far we have somewhat of an opposite pattern LMAO no it’s gonna be active 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 Maybe active, but that data says not hyperactive. In the far east Atlantic there is somewhat of a -NAO tripole.. Maybe enhancing Cape Verde area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted May 23 Author Share Posted May 23 Seasonal Forecast or Verification Type Issue Date Description Atlantic Hurricanes 2025 23rd MAy 2025 Pre-Season Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2025 UCL (TSR)'s reforecast is out: 16-8-4/146 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted Sunday at 06:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:36 PM Thread explaining why I think chances for tropical development in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico ramp up significantly around Jun 4-10. https://x.com/yconsor/status/1926690131181731976 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 02:30 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:30 AM 7 hours ago, jconsor said: Thread explaining why I think chances for tropical development in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico ramp up significantly around Jun 4-10. https://x.com/yconsor/status/1926690131181731976 Totally agree. Hadn’t watched the Atlantic wave but a well timed CCKW and MJO should open our window in the first week or two of June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 02:53 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:53 AM 8 hours ago, jconsor said: Thread explaining why I think chances for tropical development in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico ramp up significantly around Jun 4-10. https://x.com/yconsor/status/1926690131181731976 25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Totally agree. Hadn’t watched the Atlantic wave but a well timed CCKW and MJO should open our window in the first week or two of June. Today’s Euro Weeklies have re-upped the chances of TCG to close to where they were 4-6 runs ago for 6/9-15 in the W part of the basin, a pretty decent/moderate/above climo chances signal. To his credit if this were to occur, JB has been predicting this since late April although he does often predict early TCG: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC US Geological Survice Posted Tuesday at 02:29 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:29 AM I believe the 18Z GFS has fired a first shot over the bow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC US Geological Survice Posted Tuesday at 02:34 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:34 AM May need to zoom in but here's the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted Tuesday at 10:55 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:55 AM In my view, it's mportant not to lump all La Ninas together. Modoki (central Pacific-based) La Ninas are notably different from traditional (East Pacific-based) Ninas. This has big implications for the level of Atlantic TC activity and where in the basin it tends to be focused. This year is more likely to end up a Modoki La Nina, with cooler water relative to normal focused in the central Pacific:https://x.com/yconsor/status/1927306239920283821 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC US Geological Survice Posted Tuesday at 11:17 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:17 AM 00Z (eastern Gulf) and 06Z (western Gulf) also have development between the Yucatan and Cuba, June 6-10. Euro has a weaker storm in the western Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Tuesday at 04:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:07 PM There’s a modest ensemble consensus for a window opening. 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Ho Posted Tuesday at 09:51 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:51 PM almost time to ring the bell! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted yesterday at 03:03 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:03 AM As of May 28th, OHC for the area of the tropical Atlantic east of the Caribbean (20W-60W) is down to near the 2013-24 average. That’s still quite warm, but it’s not nearly as warm as 2024 and is even a bit cooler than 2023. I’ll be interested to see where it is in a couple of weeks: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AStorms13 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Let the season of overreactions BEGIN! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago This isn’t likely to happen. There is a huge blob of SAL east of the lesser Antilles that will likely be migrating into the gulf ahead of this time period. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 8 hours ago, AStorms13 said: Let the season of overreactions BEGIN! 12z still shows that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 9 hours ago, AStorms13 said: Let the season of overreactions BEGIN! lock it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 6 hours ago Author Share Posted 6 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 26 minutes ago Share Posted 26 minutes ago GFS running hot but the signal for a window is still there. Most likely after the 8th or so on both the EPS/GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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